688
FXUS61 KOKX 161748
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
148 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the west will be slow to build in through
Thursday as low pressure over Atlantic Canada lingers, and as
low pressure develops off the Mid Atlantic coast and passes to
the southeast. The high will eventually build in on Friday and
dominate into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update includes minor adjustments based on latest observations.
A large upper trough over eastern Canada and the US will weaken
for the most part as it moves east, with its sfc low over
Atlantic Canada slowly weakening and pulling away, but still
close enough to interact with high pressure to the west (after a
weak sfc trough passage this morning) to lead to breezy
conditions today. Any increase in clouds this morning with
the trough should give way to a mostly sunny afternoon, with
temp warming up to levels similar to those of yesterday near the
coast, but a little cooler inland, overall in the mid 50s to
near 60.
With winds diminishing tonight under clear skies, temps will
cool down to the 30s in most areas outside of NYC and the
immediate adjacent suburbs. Freeze Warning in effect for
midnight til 9 AM for the northern tier of zones across the
interior lower Hudson Valley and southern CT including W Passaic
NJ, with low temps at or just below freezing expected. Temps in
New Haven may be more marginal and closer to or even above
freezing in the higher elevations. South of there a Frost
Advisory is in effect for coastal CT into parts of the lower
Hudson Valley and interior NE NJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Sided with global models vs NAM re evolution of the low that
develops offshore, passing well outside of the 40N/70W benchmark
but still close enough for some increase in clouds across
eastern Long Island on Thu, perhaps a few showers grazing the
coastal waters. Expect a mainly N flow to develop locally on the
back side of this low. Despite its proximity, heights will be
slowly rising aloft on Thu, then more so on Fri as the sfc high
to the west finally starts building in, and this should lead to
a gradual daytime warming trend, with highs in the upper
50s/lower 60s on Thu and well into the 60s on Fri. Low temps
will be slower to respond due to radiational cooling, with lows
again in the 30s/40s Thu morning, (and frost/freeze concerns
confined farther inland), and a little warmer Fri morning mainly
metro/coastal areas, with lows there in the 40s/50s, and 35-40
well inland.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An anomalously large and strong ridge remains positioned over
much of the Eastern US this weekend into next week. Strong
surface high pressure will keep skies mostly clear and
conditions dry through much of the extended period through the
middle of next week. This will also keep temperatures above
average through the middle of next week with highs each day in
the upper 60s/lower 70s, generally 5-10 degrees above average.
The ridge slowly begins to weaken into the middle of next week
as an upper level trough approaches the area from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds W of the area through Fri as low pressure
develops over the Atlc.
VFR through the TAF period. NW winds veering to the N tngt, then
remaining N/NNE thru Thu. Speeds generally 10-20kt thru this
aftn, around 10kt tngt, then 10-15kt on Thu.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End timing of gusts may be off by around an hour this eve.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday through Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA will expire on the ocean waters at 15Z (11 AM).
SCA cond likely to develop again Thu night on the ocean E of
Fire Island Inlet on the back side of developing offshore low
pressure, then spread to all the ocean waters Fri into Fri
night. A few gusts to 25 kt are possible Fri morning on the
ocean E of Moriches Inlet, but the main problem will be elevated
ocean seas as high as 5-8 ft Fri into Fri evening.
SCA conditions are still possible on the ocean waters through
Sunday, with lingering wave heights of 5-6 feet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Keetch Byram Drought Index values are near or above 300 for most
of the area. Dry conditions throughout, plus winds gusting to
20-25 mph and RH falling to 30-35 percent mainly in NYC and
adjacent spots in urban NE NJ, much of Long Island, and coastal
Fairfield CT, could promote fire growth and spread this
afternoon. These conditions could occur again Thu/Fri but attm
appear more limited to NYC and western Long Island.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will be increasing due to the combination of
higher astronomical tides (full moon Oct. 17) and incoming
swell from a developing offshore low. Statement issued for the
Thu AM high tide cycle for S Nassau/Queens where water levels
may touch minor benchmarks.
A more widespread minor flood concern is shaping up for the
daytime high tide cycles Friday and Saturday, possibly into
Sunday for these areas, the NJ/NY Harbor area, and the western
Sound. S Nassau may see localized moderate flooding with the Fri
AM high tide cycle.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
CTZ005>008.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
NYZ067-068.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
NYZ069-070-079-081.
NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
NJZ002.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
NJZ004-103.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DW/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BG/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...