528
FXUS61 KOKX 162328
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
728 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys tonight
will work slowly east through Friday, while low pressure deepening
off the Mid Atlantic coast passes to the southeast. The high will
eventually build in for the weekend and dominate into early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Upper trough axis continues to work out into the north Atlantic,
while a cutoff off low over the Mid Atlantic states works
toward the coast. The latter of which will energize an elongated
area of offshore low pressure along a frontal zone. With building
surface high pressure and a deepening offshore low, gradient
winds will slacken some tonight. The question is will it be
enough for strong radiational cooling. Overall, MOS and NBM
guidance came up some. Each has their own weaknesses in such
situations and with the uncertainty in winds completely
decoupling, trended slightly up from where we were. Coastal
locations will have the better chance of a deeper mixed
boundary layer. That being the case, plan to still maintain the
freeze warning across the interior, and a frost advisory across
portions of NE NJ, coastal CT, and far eastern LI. However, it
is looking a more marginal. Should we decouple, then lows could
fall even lower than currently forecast.
Lows tonight will range from around freezing in the interior,
to the mid and upper 30s at most other locations away from the
NYC metro, where lows will be in the lower 40s. This is about 7
to 10 degrees below normal, but not record cold.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deepening offshore low pressure east of the Mid Atlantic states
will track NE on Thursday, staying south and east of the
40N, 70W benchmark. This will keep the area generally far enough
north and west to maintain a dry forecast with the possible
exception of the offshore Atlantic waters. Northerly winds will
generally be 10 to 15 mph along the coast, with the gusts up to
20 mph. Inland winds will be a bit lighter, especially at
nighttime. Gusts on Friday across eastern LI and SE CT may get
into the 20 to 30 mph range.
It will also gradually warm during this time with building
heights aloft. Highs will go from around 60 on Thursday, into
the lower and middle 60s on Friday (close to normal). Lows
Friday morning will be warmer and any patchy frost will be
confined inland.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An anomalously large and strong ridge remains positioned over
much of the Eastern US this weekend into next week. Strong surface
high pressure will keep skies mostly clear with dry conditions
through the extended period. This will also keep temperatures above
average through the middle of next week. Highs for Saturday mostly
65-70, then lower and middle 70s for Sunday through Wednesday. The
ridge slowly begins to weaken during the middle of next week as an
upper level trough approaches the area from the west. An associated
surface trough will be in the vicinity during Wednesday, but with a
lack of moisture, dry weather should continue.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds gradually through the TAF period.
VFR. Winds veer to the N tonight, then remaining N/NNE thru Thu.
Speeds around 10kt tngt, then 7-12kt on Thu with occasional gusts of
15-20kt. Gusts were handled with TEMPO group for late Thu morning
into Thu afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Lower than average confidence in gusts occurring on Thursday.
OUTLOOK FOR 0Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thu night through Mon: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA will return to the ocean waters Thursday night as deepening
low pressure passes to the south and east, while high pressure
slowly builds in from the west. Gusts of 25 to 20 kt can be
expected on the ocean, diminishing Friday afternoon. Seas will
build to their highest point Friday morning at 6 to 9 ft.
Marginal SCA gusts are possible on the non- ocean waters, but
confidence is too low to extend SCA into these areas.
SCA seas will likely linger into Saturday due to an easterly
swell, possibly into Sunday. Mainly offshore light winds then
maintain sub- advisory conditions for Sunday night and Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated spread of wildfire will again become an issue on
Friday with gusty N winds and min RH values of 30-35 percent.
Highest winds will be across eastern LI and SE CT with gusts up
to 30 mph possible. This may be handled with a special weather
statement. A Red Flag Warning is unlikely.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will be increasing due to the combination of
higher astronomical tides (full moon Oct. 17) and incoming
swell from a developing offshore low. Statement issued for the
Thu AM high tide cycle for S Nassau/Queens where water levels
may touch minor benchmarks.
A more widespread minor flood concern is shaping up for the
daytime high tide cycles Friday and Saturday, possibly into
Sunday for these areas, the NJ/NY Harbor area, and the western
Sound. S Nassau may see localized moderate flooding with the Fri
AM high tide cycle.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
CTZ005>008.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
NYZ067-068.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
NYZ069-070-079-081.
NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
NJZ002.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
NJZ004-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM EDT Friday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...