712
FXUS61 KOKX 171129
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
729 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the center of the country slides over the
East Coast as low pressure deepens off the Mid-Atlantic Coast,
eventually passing to the southeast into Friday. The high
builds in and dominates the area through at least the middle of
next week. High pressure weakens on Wednesday. A cold front
moves through Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast is on track this morning with no significant changes.
Only minor adjustments to account for the latest observations or
temperature and dew point.
An upper level trough is forcing a surface low pressure system to
develop well to the south of the area, off the Mid-Atlantic coast as
surface high pressure builds in from the west. This is allowing for
a primarily north wind early this morning which will eventually
shift to the northeast today.
Winds this morning along the coast may be more steady than
previously forecasted which may prevent the BL from decoupling via
radiational cooling. This may allow morning lows to remain higher
than expected which may mean that coastal areas in the Frost
Advisories may not see much frost at all. Interior areas are much
more likely to decouple as the wind is lighter, so patchy to
widespread frost and freezing conditions still remain possible
to likely.
The low continues to spin offshore today which may bring some higher
clouds to the southeastern portions of the area. Otherwise, the
forecast remains dry with high temperatures today in the middle 50s
to low 60s.
The surface low will begin to slowly move away tonight as high
pressure continues to build in. A steadier N/NNE flow is expected
and while some patchy frost is expected for interior areas, it`s
expected to be less widespread than Thursday morning. Lows for the
interior will be in the middle to upper 30s with the coast remaining
in the middle 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The high amplitude ridge and surface high pressure system move
overhead Friday and into Saturday as the wind relaxes and the
airmass underneath the ridge moderates a bit more. Highs Friday
will be in the low 60s for the interior areas to the upper 60s
along the coast. Highs Saturday will be slightly warmer, in the
middle 60s to low 70s.
Light winds Friday night and Saturday night may result in
radiational cooling, but with a slightly moister BL, lows for the
coolest areas should only drop into the middle to upper 30s.
Elsewhere, low temperatures in the low to middle 40s are
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An anomalously strong ridge remains over much of the eastern US
Sunday through Tuesday with surface high pressure at the surface.
This will lead to dry, sunny conditions through the latter half of
the weekend and the beginning of next week.
Anomalous 850 mb temperatures with high pressure and sunshine will
also lead to highs climbing around 10 degrees above average, give or
take a few degrees, Sunday through Tuesday in the mid/low-70s.
With clear skies overnight and light winds, some radiational cooling
may take place, particularly on Sunday night with mid-50s to mid-
40s, with some spots cooling into the low-40s. However, with high
pressure continuously building, radiational cooling may be limited
Monday and Tuesday nights with lows in the mid-40s to upper-50s.
A shortwave trough over the southern Great Lakes and the Ohio River
Valley on Tuesday night moves east and over the region Wednesday
into Thursday morning followed by a deepening longwave trough to the
north into the day on Thursday. A cold front will likely move
through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. For now, models are
in good agreement on the timing and location of this system.
However, PWATs will be around an inch or less with the frontal
passage. With some positive vorticity advection with the passing
shortwave, can expect some increasing clouds, but likely not enough
forcing or moisture to give us any rain. Particularly because the
surface low associated with the front will be far removed from the
area in northern Quebec. Have gone with a dry forecast for the
middle of next week with this system.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds gradually through the TAF period.
VFR. Winds N early this morning, then remaining N/NNE through
the day and into tonight. Speeds around 10kt early this morning,
then 8-12kt later in the morning and into the afternoon with
occasional gusts of 15-20kt. Gusts were handled with TEMPO group
for late morning into afternoon. Tonight winds will remain north
around 10 kts. KGON could gust up to 21 kt tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Lower than average confidence in gusts occurring today with
gusts less likely at KTEB.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thu night through Mon: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through today. Increasing NE flow
with a low pressure to the southeast will bring SCA conditions
and allow gusts to increase to 25-30kt tonight and through Friday,
mainly on the ocean zones, but possibly on the far eastern LIS as
well. Additionally, wave heights will be increasing above 5 feet
during this timeframe for the ocean zones. Heights look to peak
around 8-9 feet on Friday and gradually diminish through at least
Saturday SCA conditions on the ocean may linger into the day on
Saturday before falling below sometime on Sunday into Sunday
night.
Sub-SCA waves are expected to start next
week. Sub-SCA winds are expected Sunday through the beginning of
next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated spread of wildfire will again become an issue on
Friday with gusty N/NE winds and min RH values of 30-35 percent.
Highest winds will be across eastern LI and SE CT with gusts up
to 30 mph possible. This may be handled with a special weather
statement. A Red Flag Warning is unlikely.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will be increasing due to the combination of
higher astronomical tides (full moon Oct. 17) and incoming
swell from a developing offshore low. Statement issued for the
AM high tide cycle for S Nassau/Queens where water levels
may touch minor benchmarks.
A more widespread minor flood concern is shaping up for the
daytime high tide cycles Friday and Saturday, possibly into
Sunday for these areas, the NJ/NY Harbor area, and the western
Sound. S Nassau may see localized moderate flooding with the Fri
AM high tide cycle.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067-068.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ069-070-079-
081.
NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ004-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BR/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BR/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...