881
FXUS61 KOKX 171721
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
121 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the center of the country slides over the
East Coast as low pressure deepens off the Mid-Atlantic Coast,
eventually passing to the southeast into Friday. The high
builds in and dominates the area through at least the middle of
next week. High pressure weakens on Wednesday. A cold front
moves through Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper level trough is forcing a surface low pressure system
to develop well to the south of the area, off the Mid-Atlantic
coast as surface high pressure builds in from the west. Surface
winds will be from north to northeast.
The low continues to spin offshore today which is bringing
higher clouds to roughly the eastern half of the area.
Otherwise, the forecast remains dry with high temperatures today
in the middle 50s to low 60s.
The surface low will begin to slowly move away tonight as high
pressure continues to build in. A steadier N/NNE flow is expected
and while some patchy frost is expected for interior areas, it`s
expected to be less widespread than Thursday morning. Lows for the
interior will be in the middle to upper 30s with the coast remaining
in the middle 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The high amplitude ridge and surface high pressure system move
overhead Friday and into Saturday as the wind relaxes and the
airmass underneath the ridge moderates a bit more. Highs Friday
will be in the low 60s for the interior areas to the upper 60s
along the coast. Highs Saturday will be slightly warmer, in the
middle 60s to low 70s.
Light winds Friday night and Saturday night may result in
radiational cooling, but with a slightly moister BL, lows for the
coolest areas should only drop into the middle to upper 30s.
Elsewhere, low temperatures in the low to middle 40s are
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An anomalously strong ridge remains over much of the eastern US
Sunday through Tuesday with surface high pressure at the surface.
This will lead to dry, sunny conditions through the latter half of
the weekend and the beginning of next week.
Anomalous 850 mb temperatures with high pressure and sunshine will
also lead to highs climbing around 10 degrees above average, give or
take a few degrees, Sunday through Tuesday in the mid/low-70s.
With clear skies overnight and light winds, some radiational cooling
may take place, particularly on Sunday night with mid-50s to mid-
40s, with some spots cooling into the low-40s. However, with high
pressure continuously building, radiational cooling may be limited
Monday and Tuesday nights with lows in the mid-40s to upper-50s.
A shortwave trough over the southern Great Lakes and the Ohio River
Valley on Tuesday night moves east and over the region Wednesday
into Thursday morning followed by a deepening longwave trough to the
north into the day on Thursday. A cold front will likely move
through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. For now, models are
in good agreement on the timing and location of this system.
However, PWATs will be around an inch or less with the frontal
passage. With some positive vorticity advection with the passing
shortwave, can expect some increasing clouds, but likely not enough
forcing or moisture to give us any rain. Particularly because the
surface low associated with the front will be far removed from the
area in northern Quebec. Have gone with a dry forecast for the
middle of next week with this system.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds gradually through the TAF period.
VFR. Northerly winds mostly 10-15kt. Some gusts up to around 20kt
possible this afternoon. Winds becoming slightly this evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts around 20kt possible this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday PM through Tuesday: VFR. Occasional NNE gusts to 20kt
possible Friday afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through today. Increasing NE flow
with a low pressure to the southeast will bring SCA conditions
and allow gusts to increase to 25-30kt tonight and through Friday,
mainly on the ocean zones, but possibly on the far eastern LIS as
well. Additionally, wave heights will be increasing above 5 feet
during this timeframe for the ocean zones. Heights look to peak
around 8-9 feet on Friday and gradually diminish through at least
Saturday SCA conditions on the ocean may linger into the day on
Saturday before falling below sometime on Sunday into Sunday
night.
Sub-SCA waves are expected to start next
week. Sub-SCA winds are expected Sunday through the beginning of
next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated spread of wildfire will again become an issue on
Friday with gusty N/NE winds and min RH values of 30-35 percent.
Highest winds will be across eastern LI and SE CT with gusts up
to 30 mph possible. This may be handled with a special weather
statement. A Red Flag Warning is unlikely.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A more widespread minor flood concern is shaping up for the
daytime high tide cycles Friday and Saturday, possibly into
Sunday for these areas, the NJ/NY Harbor area, and the western
Sound. S Nassau may see localized moderate flooding with the Fri
AM high tide cycle.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Friday for
CTZ009-010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Friday for
NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for
NYZ072-074-075-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for
NJZ006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
AVIATION...JC