024
FXUS61 KOKX 180231
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1031 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
As low pressure moves farther out into the Atlantic through
Friday, high pressure builds more directly over the local area.
The high pressure area will eventually move more to the south
and west of the waters this weekend and then eventually build
back into the region early next week. The high builds in and
dominates the area into the middle of next week. High pressure
weakens on Wednesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday night
or Thursday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
No significant changes with the update. Changes for current
conditions.
The jet stream trough exits east of the region tonight. The mid
level trough exits east of the region tonight. A low pressure
area moves farther east out into the Atlantic tonight. This
allows high pressure to build more directly into the local
region. Dry conditions expected through tonight.
Tonight, radiational cooling, lows coldest north and west of NYC.
Winds stay up farther south and east, mitigating radiational
cooling.
With the radiational cooling tonight and low temperatures, taking
into account also the RH and low level winds, the interior portions
of the region will have sufficient conditions of these
aforementioned parameters to warrant frost/freeze headlines.
Coldest locations relatively are Western Passaic NJ, Orange NY, and
Putnam NY where low temperatures of at or below freezing are
forecast for much of these zones. This is where freeze warning is in
effect and frost is forecast to be widespread.
Farther south and east, including Eastern Passaic NJ, Western Bergen
NJ, Rockland NY, Northern Westchester NY, and interior Southern CT
is where forecast lows are more in the low to mid 30s. The freezing
or below temperatures occupy less than half of some of the forecast
zones. Areas of frost are forecast here and as such, a frost
advisory is in effect.
Both the freeze warning and frost advisory go from 2AM to 9AM
Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main jet stream gets reestablished north of the region through
this weekend. Strong ridging then takes place through
Saturday. Ridging not as strong with some flattening for the
conclusion of the weekend. A subtle trough shortwave appears to
move across the region late Sunday into Sunday night.
The high pressure will continue building in Friday through
Friday night and then settle to the south and west of the local
region for the weekend.
The high pressure gradually weakens for the weekend. A frontal
system traverses Central to Eastern Canada Sunday into Sunday night.
A persistent pressure gradient remains oriented from NE to SW across
the region. This will tighten Sunday through Sunday night.
With diminishing winds Friday night into early Saturday morning,
more frost and freeze conditions could potentially occur with
forecast lows in the low to mid 30s across parts of the Lower
Hudson Valley and interior Southern CT.
Otherwise, winds will be decreasing through this time period
with a gradual moderation of the temperature of the airmass.
High temperatures trend warmer, more in the 60s Friday, upper
60s to lower 70s Saturday, and mainly in the low to mid 70s
Sunday. Optimal radiational cooling conditions each night with a
warming trend for lows also each night.
Dry conditions continue through the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An anomalously strong ridge remains over much of the eastern
Monday through Tuesday with surface high pressure at the
surface. This will lead to dry, sunny conditions for the
beginning of next week.
Anomalously warm 850 mb temperatures with high pressure and
sunshine will also lead to highs climbing around 10 degrees
above average, give or take a few degrees, Monday through
Tuesday in the mid/low-70s.
With clear skies overnight and light winds, some radiational
cooling may take place. However, with high pressure continuously
building, radiational cooling may be limited Monday and Tuesday
nights with lows in the mid-40s to upper-50s.
A shortwave trough over the southern Great Lakes and the Ohio
River Valley on Tuesday night moves east and over the region
Wednesday into Thursday morning followed by a deepening longwave
trough to the north into the day on Thursday. A cold front will
likely move through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. For
now, models are in good agreement on the timing and location of
this system. However, PWATs will be around an inch or less with
the frontal passage. With some positive vorticity advection with
the passing shortwave, can expect some increasing clouds, but
likely not enough forcing or moisture to give us any rain.
Particularly because the surface low associated with the front
will be far removed from the area in northern Quebec. Have gone
with a mainly dry forecast from Wednesday night into Thursday,
with just a slight chance for showers across the area.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds gradually through the TAF period.
VFR. Northerly winds have diminished to less than 10kt, with a
few locations near calm to light and variable. North to
northeast winds increase to 10-15kt Friday morning. There may
be occasional gusts to around 18kt along the coast by Friday
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night through Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas with this update.
SCA conditions remain likely for the ocean waters this evening
through Friday night and probably continuing through Saturday as
well. SCA seas could continue through much of the weekend for
the ocean. Otherwise, winds will trend lower Friday night, below
SCA thresholds through the weekend. Non-ocean waters will be
below SCA through the weekend except for parts of Eastern LI
Sound tonight into Friday with occasional 25 kt gusts.
Sub-SCA waves are expected to start next week. Sub-SCA winds
are expected Monday through the beginning of next week with high
pressure moving over the coastal waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated spread of wildfire will again become an issue on
Friday with gusty N/NE winds and min RH values of 30-35 percent.
Highest winds will be across eastern LI and SE CT with gusts up
to 30 mph possible. This may be handled with a special weather
statement. A Red Flag Warning is unlikely.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A combination of high astronomical tide (full moon was today)
and swell from low pressure south of our area will result in
elevated water levels across much of our coastal locations
during times of high tides today through possibly early this
weekend.
Minor benchmarks were reached with this morning`s high tide cycle
across southern CT and the western LI sound along with parts of
southern Nassau. NYC Floodnet data show some 3-6in water levels in
the Rockaways and Inwood area of Queens. Have gone ahead and issued
statements for these areas for this evening`s high tide cycle, plus
Queens and Brooklyn, with up to about 0.5ft of inundation possible.
A more widespread minor to locally moderate flood concern is shaping
up for the daytime high tide cycles Friday with increased swell on
the oceans and northeasterly winds for the LI Sound. Have stuck
close to a Steven`s Institute blend of the 50th and 95th percentile
forecast this update, which had performed well previously. The
forecast was nudged up in the western LI Sound, which overachieved a
bit this morning. Coastal flood advisories have been issued for
Friday AM for much of the area except southern Suffolk County and SW
CT (Statements for these areas issued).
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for CTZ005>008.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Friday for
CTZ009-010.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NYZ069-070.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Friday for
NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NYZ067-068.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for
NYZ072-074-075-178-179.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NJZ004-103.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NJZ002.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for
NJZ006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/JP/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...