914
FXUS61 KOKX 181728
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
128 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control Friday through early next
week. The high will move offshore Wednesday as a cold front
moves across the area into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Slight adjustments up with temperatures for the region with
otherwise the forecast remaining on track.
An anomalously strong upper-level ridge reaches its peak today into
tonight over the northeastern with high pressure continuing at the
surface.
Dry weather and sunny skies will continue with highs in
mid 60s to near 70. Lows tonight will be in the low-50s to
mid-30s with most seeing 40s under clear skies. The warmest
temperatures tonight will be in the NYC metro and the coolest
temperatures will be in prime radiational cooling spots
including the LI Pine Barrens and far northern interior parts of
the CWA. Frost may return again in these areas with light winds
in place.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level ridge slowly weakens on Saturday giving way to a weak
shortwave pattern on Sunday before more ridging moves in Sunday
night. Dry conditions are expected with this shortwave as it will
only be a subtle feature merely causing the ridge to flatten. Plus,
high heights remain aloft with the jet stream remaining in far
northern Canada.
Temperatures continue to warm this weekend with a weak onshore flow.
Highs on Saturday in the upper-60s/low-70s. Highs on Sunday in the
low/mid-70s. Saturday night lows drop into the mid-50s near the NYC
metro, 40s for most, and in the mid/upper-30s for the LI Pine
Barrens and far northern interior locations. Frost may pop up again
in these areas. Sunday night lows will be similar, except the lowest
lows will be limited to the low-40s. This is due to slightly
stronger winds mitigating the effects of radiational cooling as a
tighter pressure gradient develops.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected Monday through the
middle of the week as an anomalously strong upper ridge remains over
the eastern United States. The ridge will move offshore Wednesday,
which will allow surface high pressure to also move east of the
area. A progressive shortwave trough then approaches on Wednesday,
which is progged to move across the area late Wednesday into
Thursday. This will send a cold front across the region allowing
temperatures to return to near seasonable levels by the end the
week.
Precipitation chances with the aforementioned trough and cold front
remain limited as there appears to be very little moisture return
ahead of the system. Followed NBM deterministic PoPs which yield
just slight chance on Thursday as this is when the upper trough axis
may be closest to the region.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will be well into the 70s for much of the
area and it is not out of the question to approach 80 across urban
NE NJ, especially Monday. Highs should remain in the 70s on
Wednesday, but not quite as high as Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures Thursday fall back into the 60s and potentially upper
50s to around 60 to end the week.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR with high pressure in control through the TAF period.
N to NNE winds around 10 kt this afternoon. There may be an
occasional gust 15-20 kt near the coast, but likely to be more
frequent at KGON. Winds diminish this evening, becoming light
N-NE or light and variable overnight. A light southerly flow
develops Saturday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts 15-20 kt possible through about 20Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Afternoon through Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions remain likely for the ocean waters through
Saturday night with a SCA currently issued through the day
Saturday. Gusts to 25 kt on ocean and ocean seas of near 7 to 10
ft today. Gusts subside tonight into Saturday to below SCA
thresholds and ocean seas eventually decrease to near 5 to 7
ft. Winds continue to weaken and remain below SCA thresholds for
Saturday night. Sub-SCA conditions eventually expected for
Sunday as waves drop below 5 feet.
Conditions will remain below SCA levels early next week with high
pressure over the waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Recent dry conditions will lead to an elevated spread of
wildfires today with minimum RH values of 25-30 percent. Winds
may also gust close to 20 mph at times. Per collaboration with
NJ, CT fire weather partners, an SPS is out for our NE NJ
counties as well as Fairfield County.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
The most impactful coastal flooding has come to an end with the
passage of the high tide this morning into early this afternoon.
While there looks to be additional minor coastal flooding on
Saturday, it is expected to be brief, more localized and
confined to the south shore back bays of LI and SW CT. A
statement will likely be needed for these locations. Water
levels will gradually lower through the weekend due to a
diminishing easterly swell and lowering astronomical tides.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
NYZ071-073-176-177.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...JM/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BR/DS
FIRE WEATHER...//
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//