869
FXUS61 KOKX 191444
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1044 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through the middle of next week. A
cold front moves across the area Thursday followed by building high
pressure next Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with just minor adjustments to reflect
current observations.
Otherwise, an anomalous upper-level ridge remains over the
eastern US. It will gradually become less amplified throughout
today and tonight, but higher anomalous heights will still
remain aloft, despite this. High pressure remains the dominate
feature at the surface.
Sunny dry weather continues today with highs in the upper-60s/lower-
70s. Clear skies tonight under light/calm winds will lead to another
efficient radiational cooling night. Overnight lows will be in the
low/mid-50s in the NYC metro, mid/low-40s for most, and in the
mid/upper-30s for far northern interior locations and the LI Pine
Barrens. Another night of frost in these colder locations looks
likely to return.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A strong jet stream re-establishes it self over far northern Canada
for the latter half of the weekend and into next week. Heights aloft
remain anomalous with a ridge, except for Sunday afternoon into
early Sunday night. During this timeframe, a weak trough tries to
pass, which mainly just leads to a flattening of the ridge aloft.
Some models hint at a weak surface trough, as well. This could lead
to a `few` clouds Sunday afternoon-night. Otherwise, sunshine and
dry weather continue Sunday - Monday.
Some warm air advection takes place at 850 mb Sunday - Monday.
Surface temperatures look to increase, too, aided by a more light SW
flow moderating the airmass. Highs on Sunday will be in the low/mid-
70s. Highs on Monday will be in the mid/upper-70s with a few spots
hitting 80 in NE NJ.
Given this warming trend, overnight lows will follow suit. Lows
Sunday night will range between upper-50s in the NYC metro to the
low-40s in the LI Pine Barrens and far northern interior locations.
Frost will be much less likely. Monday night will be even warmer in
the upper to lower 50s across the area. Only the LI Pine Barrens and
far northern interior locations dip into the upper-40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An anomalous upper ridge with 500 mb heights 1-2 standard deviations
above normal will be located over the northeast on Tuesday. 850 mb
temperatures are progged to reach near 12-13C, which support the
continuation of unseasonably warm temperatures. NBM deterministic is
likely too cool away from the immediate coast, where developing SE
flow should prevent temperatures from reaching their full potential
in this pattern. Have blended in the NBM 90th percentile which
yields highs close to 80 degrees across NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley,
and portions of the NYC metro. Elsewhere, highs will be in the low
to middle 70s.
The upper ridge slides offshore on Wednesday ahead of an approaching
upper trough. The surface high pressure will be offshore allowing
winds to increase out of the south. This should hold temperatures in
the lower to middle 70s, warmest in NE NJ. A cold front quickly
approaches Wednesday night as the shortwave amplifies over the Great
Lakes. The shortwave will quickly swing to the east on Thursday
sending the cold front across the region. The orientation of the
trough should prevent any deep moisture ahead of it, which will
limit coverage of showers with the front. There are some subtle
signals of a bit more moisture across the eastern half of the area
as the upper trough becomes neutral tilted as it swings overhead.
For now will follow the slight chance PoPs from the deterministic
NBM until the modeling resolves the trough amplitude better.
The trough quickly passes east Thursday night into Friday allowing
high pressure to build back over the area. Temperatures on Thursday
start to trend down, but should remain above normal in the mid to
upper 60s. By Friday, seasonable highs in the upper 50s to around 60
are anticipated as a much cooler air mass follows the frontal
passage.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR with high pressure in control through the TAF period.
Light N-NNE or variable winds through the morning. A light
S-SSW flow develops this afternoon, especially near the coast.
Mainly light and variable winds expected tonight into Sunday
morning. Light westerly flow Sunday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift to the S-SSW this afternoon may be off by
an hour or two.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday through Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions remain for the ocean waters through Sunday
afternoon due 5-6 ft seas. A SCA is currently issued through
this timeframe. Sub-SCA levels for winds and seas
expected for Sunday night through Monday night under high
pressure.
A weak pressure gradient remains over the waters Tuesday and
Wednesday with winds and seas below SCA levels. Winds on the waters
begin to increase Wednesday night ahead of a cold front, and should
approach SCA levels Thursday, especially on the ocean.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Per collaboration with CT fire weather partners, BOX and ALY an
SPS is out for our CT counties due to recent dry weather and low
RH values today.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
One last high tide cycle of concern this morning/early afternoon.
Easterly swell continues to diminish and astronomical tides are
lowering. A few of the most vulnerable locations across the south
shore back bays of western LI and coastal SW CT could see minor
benchmarks just touched. Have continued with a coastal flood
statement for these locations as any minor flooding looks
isolated.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BC/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DR/DS
MARINE...BR/DS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...