107
FXUS61 KOKX 200427
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1227 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control for early week. For Wednesday, high
pressure moves out into the Atlantic. A cold front approaches from
the west Wednesday night, moving across early Thursday. Another area
of high pressure gradually builds in from the west thereafter.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Observed temperatures for most areas are about 3-7 degrees
colder than forecasted, so lowered minimum temperatures for the
night. Frost may be more prevalent than initially anticipated in
parts or Orange and Putnam counties. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern tonight.
Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the
30s and 40s, with the NYC metro remaining in the 50s. The usually
colder spots, especially well north and west of NYC will see chance
for frost once again. Still looks likely that frost development
will not be widespread enough for any headlines.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region to end the weekend, however a
southwesterly flow develops during the day Sunday. This will allow
temperatures to be a bit warmer than what get observed in the near
term. Expect temperatures on Sunday to climb into the lower and
middle 70s across much of the area. The only exception will be
across the far eastern portions of the CWA where highs may only
reach the upper 60s. Some of the models area hinting at a weak
trough passing over the area Sunday afternoon, this may result in
just a few clouds late Sunday afternoon into the evening. Otherwise,
expect a mostly sunny day.
For Sunday night, clear skies continue with generally light winds.
however with a warming trend underway, overnight lows only fall into
the 40s and 50s. A few isolated spots may fall into the upper 30s.
With the warmer conditions, frost will be much less likely.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main upper jet well north of the region early into the midweek,
followed by more of a dip in the jet going into late week. Part
of the jet extends south into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and
into the Northeast. Mid levels convey ridging Monday through
Tuesday. Mid levels then show ridging moving offshore for
midweek as a shortwave moves across. A longer wavelength mid
level trough then moves in for late week into the Northeast.
At the surface, high pressure remains in control for early in the
week but will be moving out into the Atlantic Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A cold front then approaches from the west, eventually
moving across early Thursday. Then, airmass with origins in SW
Canada into North Central US starts to work its way into the region
thereafter into the start of next weekend. High pressure will make
its return behind the cold front, gradually building in from the
west later Thursday and into start of next weekend.
The long term forecast period from Monday through the start of next
weekend does not have much of any rainfall in the forecast. Just a
slight chance with a cold front moving across late Wednesday night
into Thursday. Cold front with much westerly flow in atmosphere will
not have much moisture to work with. If any rain occurs, it will
probably be quite low amounts. Airmass will eventually become
relatively cooler by mid to late week. Temperatures trend from
well above normal early into mid week to closer to normal going
into late week.
Used the NBM 90th percentile for high temperature forecast for
Monday and Tuesday. Substantial warm air advection expected with
veering low level wind profiles along with plenty of sun. Used
the MEX guidance for low temperature forecast for Monday night
and Tuesday night to better capture radiational cooling with
greater spatial differences in temperature as sky conditions
will be mostly clear and winds will be light. Thereafter have
NBM forecast for temperatures with minor adjustments.
Forecast highs are well into the 70s for most locations Monday
through Wednesday, more in the low to mid 60s for Thursday and
are closer to 60 for Friday and next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control through the TAF period.
Light SW-W or variable winds tonight. Light westerly flow develops
Sunday morning, followed by S to SW sea breezes in the afternoon.
Winds remaining at 10kt or less.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night through Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft conditions remain for the ocean waters through Sunday
afternoon due 5-6 ft seas. Winds will be relatively light and
well below SCA thresholds. SCA is currently issued through
Sunday afternoon for the ocean. Sub-SCA levels for winds and
seas expected for Sunday night through Monday night under high
pressure.
Mainly below SCA conditions expected for the forecast waters
for the rest of the marine forecast period. Only exception
would be that there could be some 5 ft ocean seas in outer ocean
zones Thursday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/BR
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM