578
FXUS61 KOKX 201451
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1051 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control early this week. A cold front
approaches on Wednesday and moves across the area Wednesday
night into early Thursday. High pressure then returns into early
next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast mainly on track with just some adjustments to dewpoints
and a small increase to max temperature forecast.
Mixing down from NAM12 900mb supports a widespread increase in max
temperature forecast. BUFKIT soundings indicate varied vertical
mixing with more weight towards mixing to below 900mb, closer to
950 to 925mb. Using NBM 90th percentile for the high
temperature forecast to be a few degrees higher compared to
previously forecast. More of a SW flow expected to develop today
but winds stay relatively light, near 10 mph or less on average.
The upper-level ridge that has dominated the last few days flattens
somewhat today. A surface trough develops which could allow for a
`few` clouds to develop. Otherwise, we`ll stay dry and mostly sunny
today with surface high pressure remaining in place and
anomalous heights remaining aloft, despite the flattening
ridge.
With a developing weak southwesterly flow today, look for
temperatures to be warmer today than prior days. Highs will be in
the low to mid 70s. Tonight`s overnight lows will be slightly
warmer. Most will be in the 40s or lower-50s. Near 60 in the NYC
metro. A few upper-30s are possible in the LI Pine Barrens and
far northern Orange county and New London county. Frost may be
patchy in these areas, but not as prevalent as prior nights.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday into Tuesday an upper-level ridge reamplifies over the the
northeast with high pressure at the surface remaining. Look for more
sunshine and a warming trend in temperatures.
Both Monday and Tuesday, highs will be in the mid/upper-70s to near
80. Overnight lows both nights will be noticeably milder in the low-
60s in the NYC metro, 50s for most areas, and upper-40s in northern
Orange county, northern New London county, and the LI Pine Barrens.
The upper-level ridge begins to break down Tuesday night as a trough
digs west and south of Hudson Bay aided by a more southerly
component of the jet stream stretching through the northern Rockies
and northern Great Plains. Cloud cover may gradually begin to
increase Tuesday night ahead of this trough.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A progressive northern stream shortwave trough moves across the
Great Lakes Wednesday before swinging across the northeast on
Thursday, helping to quickly push the cold front offshore. The
consensus of the modeling indicates the cold front passes late
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Broad troughing may be
left behind over the northeast on Friday before ridging begins
building in late Thursday into Friday before settling over the area
on Saturday.
The progressive nature of the trough will limit the forcing and
moisture associated with the aforementioned cold front passage.
There may be just enough of a window for some showers to accompany
the front, especially as the upper trough becomes neutral to
slightly negatively tilted. Prefer to maintain a slight chance PoP
late Wednesday night into Thursday despite the NBM deterministic
decreasing PoPs below 15 percent. Any shower activity will be brief
and a widespread measurable rainfall will be difficult to achieve
with this system.
The warmest day of the period will be on Wednesday as highs will
once again reach the lower to middle 70s, warmest across NE NJ.
A downsloping well mixed atmosphere should occur on Thursday behind
the front, so temperatures will be slow to fall below normal. Highs
on Thursday will be in the lower to middle 60s with gusty NW winds
20-30 mph. Temperatures then return to near normal levels Friday
into Saturday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures
Thursday and Friday night fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR with high pressure in control through the TAF period.
Light WSW-W flow will gradually shift to the SW late morning
into the early afternoon. S sea breezes are likely at coastal
terminals. Wind speeds should remain 10 kt or less. Light SW-W
or variable flow expected overnight into early Monday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of afternoon sea breezes may be off by 1-3 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday through Wednesday: VFR
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Buoy 44025 shows increases with wave heights back up to near 5
ft so leaving SCA as is with the late morning marine forecast update.
Small craft conditions remain for the ocean waters through early
this afternoon due to 5-6 ft seas. Winds will be relatively
light and well below SCA thresholds. SCA is currently issued
through early this afternoon for the ocean. Sub-SCA levels for
winds and seas expected by latter half of this afternoon through
Tuesday night under high pressure.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels Wednesday into Wednesday
night. A cold front passage will occur late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. NW winds will increase behind the front with
potential for SCA wind gusts on the ocean Thursday afternoon and
evening. Ocean seas may also build to around 5 ft.
Winds and seas subside Thursday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather continues with ample sunshine today. Minimum RH will be
between 25 and 35% for most of the area leading to conditions
conducive for fire development, should ignition occur. Winds will be
light, lowering concerns of fire spread. An SPS has been issued
today for Connecticut for fire danger in coordination with fire
managers in the state.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...JM/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/DS
MARINE...JM/BR/DS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS