403
FXUS61 KOKX 202249
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
649 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through early this week. A
cold front approaches on Wednesday, moving through Wednesday
night into early Thursday. High pressure then builds over the
region into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A quiet night ahead with no changes to forecast thinking. High
pressure remains in control. Dry conditions persists with
minimal cloud coverage and winds stay light.
Radiational cooling expected to be efficient. MAV/MET MOS blend
used for the low temperature forecast. Rising trend to min
temperatures compared to last few nights. A vast range of lows
from mid to upper 30s in rural and valley inland locations to
near 60 within NYC expected. Some frost is forecast for parts of
the rural and interior sections but not nearly enough to warrant
a frost advisory.
Dewpoints will also be on a rising trend compared to the last
few nights. With radiational cooling remaining efficient, there
will be minimal difference between temperatures and respective
dewpoints. There will be potential for river and valley fog
tonight. Have patchy fog for late tonight into early Monday
morning for rivers and valleys across the interior.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main upper level jet remains well north of the region early this
week. Mid levels convey ridging Monday into Tuesday.
At the surface, high pressure remains in control for early in the
week but will be moving out into the Atlantic Tuesday into
Tuesday night. More southerly synoptic flow develops Tuesday
into Tuesday night.
Dry conditions expected to continue Monday through Tuesday
night. Warmer than normal temperatures continue. Sky conditions
remain mainly clear.
Expecting substantial warm air advection Monday with veering low
level winds from near surface to 850mb. Vertical mixing during
the day and noting how warm temperatures reached for Sunday,
used the NBM 95th percentile for high temperatures Monday,
ranging mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Some record high
temperatures could be reached or even exceeded in some
locations.
With high pressure moving offshore Tuesday, more southerly flow
and develops. The flow has more of an easterly component. So,
high temperatures forecast for Tuesday are less than those of
Monday, mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Used NBM for Tuesday
high temperatures.
Lows for Monday and Tuesday night will be mainly in the upper
40s to near 60. Still expecting some valley and rural location
fog to form for late night into early morning especially with
more low level moisture to work with.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The predominantly dry stretch of weather continues through the long
term, with little change in forecast thinking from previous update.
A progressive northern stream shortwave trough moves across the
Great Lakes Wednesday before swinging through the Northeast on
Thursday, helping to quickly push a cold front through and offshore.
The fropa is expected overnight into Thursday, though guidance
continues to agree on limited moisture advection ahead of it, and
with best forcing to the north, not anticipating much rainfall out
of it. Blended guidance yields slight chance PoPs (~15-20%) late
Wednesday night, but any shower activity is likely to be brief and
limited in coverage.
Gusty NW flow develops behind the front on Thursday, and helps usher
in a bit cooler air mass from earlier in the week as high pressure
builds back in from the Midwest. This will maintain dry conditions
through into the weekend with limited cloud cover. The warmest day
of the period is Wednesday as highs once again reach the low to mid
70s, warmest across NE NJ. A downsloping well mixed BL develops on
Thursday behind the front, so temperatures will be slow to fall
below normal, managing to get into the low to mid 60s. Temperatures
return to normal values for late October by Friday and into the
weekend, highs mostly around 60.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control through the TAF period.
SW winds this afternoon, with S sea breezes likely at coastal
terminals. Wind speeds should remain 10 kt or less. Light SW-W
or variable flow expected overnight into early Monday morning.
Winds then become SW-S during the late morning and afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of afternoon sea breezes may be off by 1-3 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday through Friday: VFR
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Waves have decreased below 5 ft across the ocean. Winds are well
under SCA thresholds. The sub SCA conditions are expected to
continue through early this week with high pressure remaining in
control.
NW winds increase behind a frontal passage late Wednesday night into
early Thursday, with potential for SCA wind gusts developing on the
ocean Thursday afternoon and evening. Ocean seas may also build to
around 5 ft during this time as well. Winds and seas subside
Thursday night, and sub small craft advisory conditions are then
expected on all waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry weather continues with ample sunshine expected on Monday.
Minimum RH will be between 25 and 35% for most of the area
leading to conditions conducive for fire development, should
ignition occur. Winds will be light, lowering concerns of fire
spread.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DR
NEAR TERM...JM/DR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/DR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR