299
FXUS61 KOKX 212220
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
620 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered just south of the area will remain in control
through Wednesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday night
followed by high pressure building in Thursday and Friday.
Another frontal system moves across the area on Saturday.
Another high pressure system moves in for Sunday into the
beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant change to the forecast. Only minor adjustments
to account for the most recent observations of temperatures and
dew points.
An anomalously high 500 mb height regime will be in place with 580+
dm heights. This will lead to well above normal temperatures,
especially with regard to day time maxes. For tonight a light
pressure gradient will be in place with high pressure getting closer
and nearly over the region, center just to the south. Light south to
calm winds with dew points getting primarily into the lower 50s.
This will put a hard floor in place as to how much temperatures will
be able to fall over the next few nights. Deep layer ridging will
result in little, if any clouds. Lows will range from the middle
and upper 40s in the coolest spots, to 50s along coastal sections.
During Tuesday deep layer ridging remains, although the ridge axis
gets further east. This should result in a weak return flow towards
the afternoon. With water temperatures primarily in the lower 60s,
this should result in a bit of a sea breeze affect with temperatures
perhaps not getting quite as warm as Monday. However, there is a
possibility that the onshore flow will be weaker than forecast which
result in temperatures being a bit warmer than currently progged.
Have gone a couple of degrees warmer than the NBM deterministic as a
result. We should still be a least a few degrees shy of any record
highs at the climate sites, with primarily upper 70s to lower 80s
for daytime maxes, with some lower and middle 70s across far eastern
coastal sections.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Towards late Tuesday night and into Wednesday upper level ridging
begins to break down as a trough moving across the Canadian prairies
moves east. This eventually leads to height falls later in the day
Wednesday. For Tuesday night dew points will be a bit more elevated,
and with primarily clear skies temperatures should be able to
radiate down towards the dew point away from the more urban
locations. This could very well lead to some patchy fog in places
late at night, more so across some of the interior valley locations.
Minimum temperatures will only get down into the 50s in most places,
and perhaps closer to 60 in the NYC metro. Otherwise expect a few
upper 40s in the coolest spots across the northern and northwestern
interior.
On Wednesday with the upper level trough still back to the west and
northwest, another sunny and warm day will be on tap. A few mid and
upper level clouds could begin to show up late in the day and
towards evening as per BUFKIT GFS based forecast soundings. With the
high pressure ridge beginning to shift more offshore look for more
of a synoptic based return flow as winds become more S to SSW. This
should have most places, especially further southeast across the
area a few degrees cooler during the afternoon hours compared to the
previous two days. Temperatures however will be several degrees
above normal once again with widespread 70s, with portions of NE NJ
getting close to 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A fairly active mid-level pattern is expected for the long term
despite the fact that sensible weather, other than temperatures,
will largely be unaffected.
A trough digging into the Northeast will bring a frontal system
through the area Wednesday night. The cold front passes through
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning and while no
precipitation is expected, a stray shower can`t be entirely ruled
out. The biggest noticeable change will be a drop in temperatures
along with breezy NW flow on Thursday, with highs dropping back down
to seasonable levels, generally in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Mid-level ridging will move overhead Thursday night into Friday with
surface high pressure building in as well. This will allow for
another chilly night with interior areas dropping into the middle to
possibly lower 30s. This will certainly be the case in any areas
where the wind can become calm enough to allow for radiational
cooling overnight and into Friday morning.
High pressure continues to build overhead Friday with temperatures
remaining seasonable. Another piece of mid-level energy quickly
approaches from the west bringing with it a subtle shortwave trough
and weak surface frontal system on Saturday. The frontal system may
largely be dry, but a slight chance of showers can`t be ruled out,
especially for northern areas.
Strong high pressure building in thereafter from Saturday night
through Monday will result in fairly breezy NW flow once again with
temperatures dropping once again. Highs on Sunday will likely be in
the 50s for much of the area with cool lows in the upper 30s to 40s.
Temperatures moderate a bit on Monday into the upper 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains in control, drifting off the northeast
and mid Atlantic coast during Tuesday.
VFR.
Generally a light SW flow, 5 to less than 10 kts through this
afternoon, with a late day sea breeze possible at KJFK. Winds
become light and variable this evening, and then light south by
late Tuesday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected. A late day sea breeze
possible at KJFK, with winds 200 around 9kt 20Z/21Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday through Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
With a weak synoptic gradient in place sub small craft conditions
are expected with ocean seas generally expected to run 2 to 3 feet
through Wednesday. By late in the day Wednesday the winds begin to
increase some out ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusts late in
the day Wednesday should approach 20 kt, especially for south facing
shoreline locations. Marginal SCA conditions are possible on
Wednesday night and Thursday, particularly on the ocean with gusts
near 25kt and wave heights 4-5 feet. While sheltered waters should
remain largely sub- SCA, some gusts to 25kt will be possible in a
gusty NW flow.
Winds subside below SCA criteria Thursday night through Saturday
morning but waves heights on the ocean may still remain near SCA
thresholds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather continues late this afternoon into early this
evening with Minimum RH will be between 25 and 35% for most of
the area leading to conditions conducive for fire development,
should ignition occur. Winds will be light, lowering concerns of
fire spread overall. The dry conditions continue through mid
week with further statements possible.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record highs are possible Tuesday in a couple of locations. Here are
the current record highs for October 22nd.
EWR: 86/1979
BDR: 77/1975
NYC: 88/1979
LGA: 83/1979
JFK: 77/1984*
ISP: 77/1979
*Also in other years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...JE/MW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JE/MW
CLIMATE...