489
FXUS61 KOKX 220717
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
317 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control through Wednesday. A cold
front moves through Wednesday night followed by high pressure
building in Thursday and Friday. Another frontal system moves
across the area on Saturday. Another high pressure system moves
in for Sunday into the beginning of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Dry conditions along with unseasonably warm temperatures
will continue today. The upper ridge starts the day over the
region, but shifts to the east by tonight. Surface high pressure
centered south of the area will remain in control, but begin
moving offshore tonight.
The atmosphere remains dry with strong subsidence in place, so
skies will once again be clear. Have gone close to the NBM 90th
percentile for highs today, which yield readings in the lower
80s across NE NJ and around 80 degrees across the Lower Hudson
Valley and NYC metro. Further east across CT and LI, highs will
be in the middle to upper 70s. A few record highs are once again
possible (ISP, JFK, BDR). See climate section below for current
records for October 22nd. Temperatures tonight will continue
mild with lows only falling into the 50s for most locations.
There may be also be some patchy fog across eastern LI and
southeast CT.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Heights will continue falling Wednesday ahead of an approaching
progressive, northern stream shortwave. The shortwave will send
a cold front across the region Wednesday night. Wednesday will
be another warm day for late October, but highs should remain in
the 70s, coolest east of the Hudson River/NYC metro.
There should be a slight increase in clouds Wednesday night as
the cold front moves across the region. Some uncertainly
remains with the evolution of the trough as it moves overhead
late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Several recent
global deterministic and their respective ensembles (ECMWF, EPS
CMC, GEPS, NAM12) are amplifying the trough just enough to form
a closed low as it slides east of Long Island. This is due to
interaction with low pressure well offshore, which briefly slows
the trough down. There may be a brief window for a bit more
coverage of showers across LI and potentially CT if this
scenario were to verify. The GFS and its ensembles remain more
progressive with a very limited chance for a shower. Have
reintroduced a slight chance PoP Wednesday night/early Thursday
morning with this forecast update. If the aforementioned brief
closed low scenario becomes more notable and consistent future
runs, then PoPs may need to be raised in subsequent forecasts.
The trough moves offshore later Thursday into Thursday night
with ridging building aloft and at the surface. Temperatures
begin to fall closer to seasonable levels, but should remain a
few degrees above normal in the lower to middle 60s. Thursday
night will be much cooler with lows in the 30s inland and lower
40s closer to the coast. Frost is possible for interior
locations.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Very little change in the long term period and stuck fairly
close to the NBM.
The long term period starts off with high pressure over the
region with seasonable temperatures on continues to build
overhead Friday with temperatures remaining seasonable.
Mid-level energy approaches from the west bringing with it a
subtle shortwave trough and weak surface frontal system on
Saturday. The frontal system may largely be dry, but a slight
chance of showers can`t be ruled out, especially for northern
areas.
Strong high pressure building in thereafter from Saturday night
through Monday will result in fairly breezy NW flow once again
with temperatures dropping once again. Highs on Sunday will
likely be in the 50s for much of the area with cool lows in the
upper 30s to 40s. Temperatures moderate a bit on Monday into the
upper 50s.
The high starts to shift offshore on Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains in control, drifting off the northeast
and mid Atlantic coast during Tuesday.
VFR.
Light and variable through early this morning. Winds remain
light, turning south by late morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night through Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through tonight
with a weak pressure gradient in place. Winds increase on
Wednesday ahead of a cold front passage, which occurs Wednesday
night. Wind gusts may reach around 20 kt during this time
period. NW winds increase behind the front on Thursday with
potential for marginal SCA gusts, mainly on the ocean. SE swells
increase Thursday into Thursday night due to offshore low
pressure, which may build seas to near 5 ft. Winds subside below
SCA criteria Thursday night through Saturday morning but waves
heights on the ocean may still remain near SCA thresholds.
Any leftover SCA conditions quickly end early Friday morning
with sub-SCA conditions expected through Saturday. A cold front
moving across the region on Saturday, may result in some gusts
close to 25kt Saturday night into Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...
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Record highs are possible today in a few of locations. Here are
the current record highs for October 22nd.
EWR: 86/1979
BDR: 77/1975
NYC: 88/1979
LGA: 83/1979
JFK: 77/1984*
ISP: 77/1979
*Also in other years-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/DS
CLIMATE...