616
FXUS61 KOKX 221719 CCA
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
119 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Wednesday. A cold
front moves through Wednesday night followed by high pressure
building in Thursday and Friday. Another frontal system moves
across the area on Saturday. Another high pressure system moves
in for Sunday into the beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry conditions along with unseasonably warm temperatures
will continue this afternoon. Have upped temperatures once again
by an additional degree or two for the next few hours as obs
are exceeding the previous temp forecast in many spots. ISP has
already reached a record high for the day. Previous discussion
follows.
Lighter winds overall will help achieve dry adiabatic lapse
rates is the thinking here for the remainder of the afternoon.
The upper ridge starts the day over the region, but shifts to
the east by tonight. Surface high pressure centered south of the
area will remain in control, but begin moving offshore tonight.
The atmosphere remains dry with strong subsidence in place, so
skies will once again be clear. Staying more in line with the NBM
90th percentile for highs into this afternoon, which yield
readings in the lower 80s, perhaps a few isolated middle 80s
across NE NJ, and 80 degrees or so across the Lower Hudson
Valley and NYC metro. Further east across CT and LI, highs will
be in the upper 70s and right around 80, with a few middle 70s
right along the water. Record highs are once again possible to
likely this afternoon (ISP, JFK, LGA, BDR, and EWR). The record
high for Central Park (NYC) is more elusive for today (88 in
1979). See climate section below for all the current records for
October 22nd. Temperatures tonight will continue mild with lows
only falling into the 50s for most locations. There may be also
be some patchy fog across eastern LI and southeast CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Heights will continue falling Wednesday ahead of an approaching
progressive, northern stream shortwave. The shortwave will send
a cold front across the region Wednesday night. Wednesday will
be another warm day for late October, but highs should remain in
the 70s, coolest east of the Hudson River/NYC metro.
There should be a slight increase in clouds Wednesday night as
the cold front moves across the region. Some uncertainly
remains with the evolution of the trough as it moves overhead
late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Several recent
global deterministic and their respective ensembles (ECMWF, EPS
CMC, GEPS, NAM12) are amplifying the trough just enough to form
a closed low as it slides east of Long Island. This is due to
interaction with low pressure well offshore, which briefly slows
the trough down. There may be a brief window for a bit more
coverage of showers across LI and potentially CT if this
scenario were to verify. The GFS and its ensembles remain more
progressive with a very limited chance for a shower. Have
reintroduced a slight chance PoP Wednesday night/early Thursday
morning with this forecast update. If the aforementioned brief
closed low scenario becomes more notable and consistent future
runs, then PoPs may need to be raised in subsequent forecasts.
The trough moves offshore later Thursday into Thursday night
with ridging building aloft and at the surface. Temperatures
begin to fall closer to seasonable levels, but should remain a
few degrees above normal in the lower to middle 60s. Thursday
night will be much cooler with lows in the 30s inland and lower
40s closer to the coast. Frost is possible for interior
locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Very little change in the long term period and stuck fairly
close to the NBM.
The long term period starts off with high pressure over the
region with seasonable temperatures on continues to build
overhead Friday with temperatures remaining seasonable.
Mid-level energy approaches from the west bringing with it a
subtle shortwave trough and weak surface frontal system on
Saturday. The frontal system may largely be dry, but a slight
chance of showers can`t be ruled out, especially for northern
areas.
Strong high pressure building in thereafter from Saturday night
through Monday will result in fairly breezy NW flow once again
with temperatures dropping once again. Highs on Sunday will
likely be in the 50s for much of the area with cool lows in the
upper 30s to 40s. Temperatures moderate a bit on Monday into the
upper 50s.
The high starts to shift offshore on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure off the northeast and mid Atlantic coast drifts
east through Wednesday. A cold front approaches Wednesday
afternoon.
VFR.
Light S/SE winds this afternoon, become light and variable once
again tonight. On Wednesday, winds become southerly and
increase to 10-12kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday: VFR. Slight chance of
showers Wednesday night. Thursday N winds gusting 15 to 25 kt.
Friday through Sunday: VFR. Slight chance of showers Saturday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through tonight
with a weak pressure gradient in place. Winds increase on
Wednesday ahead of a cold front passage, which occurs Wednesday
night. Wind gusts may reach around 20 kt during this time
period. NW winds increase behind the front on Thursday with
potential for marginal SCA gusts, mainly on the ocean. SE swells
increase Thursday into Thursday night due to offshore low
pressure, which may build seas to near 5 ft. Winds subside below
SCA criteria Thursday night through Saturday morning but waves
heights on the ocean may still remain near SCA thresholds.
Any leftover SCA conditions quickly end early Friday morning
with sub-SCA conditions expected through Saturday. A cold front
moving across the region on Saturday, may result in some gusts
close to 25kt Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record highs are possible today in a few of locations. Here are
the current record highs for October 22nd.
EWR: 86/1979
BDR: 77/1975
NYC: 88/1979
LGA: 83/1979
JFK: 77/1984*
ISP: 77/1979
*Also in other years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DS
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/DS
CLIMATE...