797
FXUS61 KOKX 230327
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1127 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in place tonight before moving offshore
Wednesday. A cold front passes through Wednesday night followed
quickly by high pressure building in Thursday. High pressure remains
in place through Friday. Another frontal system moves across the
area on Saturday. A stronger high pressure system moves in Sunday
and lingers into the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Towards late tonight and into Wednesday upper level ridging
begins to break down as a trough moving across the Canadian
prairies moves east. This eventually leads to height falls later
in the day Wednesday.
For tonight dew points will remain somewhat elevated, and with
primarily clear skies temperatures will be able to radiate down.
Some areas have already seen radiative fog. Added fog to Long
Island and lowered visibilities from previous forecast. Patchy
dense fog can not be ruled out.
Minimum temperatures will only get down into the 50s in most
places, and a few lower 60s in the NYC metro which is way above
normal. The coolest spots should be right around 50 in far NW
portions of the area in Orange County.
On Wednesday with the upper level trough still back to the west and
northwest, another sunny and warm day will be on tap. A few mid and
upper level clouds could begin to show up late in the day and
towards evening as per BUFKIT forecast soundings. With the high
pressure ridge beginning to shift more offshore look for more of a
synoptic based return flow as winds become more S to SSW. Winds will
generally be 10 to 15 mph sustained or thereabouts closer to the
coast with gusts perhaps as high as 20 to 25 mph. Higher res
guidance also appears to be suggestive of an Ambrose jet feature.
Therefore some gusty afternoon winds are possible back into Southern
Nassau, Queens, and Brooklyn. A trajectory off the water to a degree
should have most places, especially further south and east across
the area a few degrees cooler during the afternoon hours compared to
the previous two days. Temperatures however will be several degrees
above normal once again with widespread 70s, with portions of NE NJ
getting close to 80.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mild conditions will be in place Wednesday evening on a S to SW wind
ahead of a cold front. The cold front approaches quickly in the
evening and should get into NW portions of the area by midnight. The
front currently is progged by model consensus to get into the city
around 06z, and a couple of hours later for far eastern portions of
the area. The front should pass through mainly dry as the boundary
will be moisture starved, and the dynamics and forcing remains well
to the north. Thus have minimal PoPs with slight chance of sprinkles
late Wed night, and early Thu AM for far eastern sections.
Otherwise, mainly some mid and lower-mid level clouds from 6 to 15
kft is expected. Skies should go clear quickly behind the front
approaching sunrise and into later Thursday morning as a cooler and
drier cP air mass advects in on a NW wind. Lows will be primarily in
the 50s with a more noticeable change in dew points towards and just
after daybreak on Thursday. Portions of Orange County should drop
into the 40s by early Thursday morning.
By Thursday afternoon dew points readings will start to get into the
30s across a large portion of the area as the cool Canadian air mass
makes its presence felt. Despite wall to wall sunshine temperatures
will only reach the lower and middle 60s which will be a return to
seasonable temperatures for late October.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A fairly active mid-level pattern is expected for the long term with
a mostly dry forecast and some temperature swings through the middle
of next week.
A trough will depart the Northeast coast Thursday night with a
quickly approaching high pressure building in for Friday accompanied
by brief mid-level ridging. Dry conditions with seasonable
temperatures are expected with highs generally in the low 60s. By
Friday night, a mid-level trough digs into the area from the west.
The parent low pressure system positioned over Southeastern Canada
will drag a cold front through the area during the day on Saturday.
An increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front on Saturday
will allow for slightly warmer temperatures, with highs generally in
the middle to upper 60s. This front is expected to bring some cloud
cover and potentially some isolated showers, but moisture will be a
limiting factor and showers may not materialize. The cold front
quickly moves through Saturday night with increasing NW flow as a
strong high pressure builds in from the west.
A more noticeable drop in temperatures will be felt Sunday with CAA
continuing under a brisk NW flow. Highs Sunday will be in the middle
to upper 50s with clear skies and dry conditions. High pressure will
then dominate the remainder of the forecast into the middle of next
week with clear skies, relatively light winds, and gradually
moderating temperatures through midweek. Highs by Tuesday will be
once again in the middle to potentially upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure offshore drifts east through Wednesday. A cold
front passes through Wednesday evening.
VFR at NYC terminals, KHPN and KSWF. Patchy fog has caused vsbys
to lower at KISP, KBDR and KGON. Patchy fog for these terminals
is possible through tonight.
Winds will be mostly light and variable tonight or light out of
the south. On Wednesday, winds become southerly and increase to
10-12kt. Gusts 20-24kt possible at KSWF by midday Wednesday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Patchy fog is not likely for the city terminals, but can not be
completely ruled out tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night through Thursday: VFR. Thursday N winds gusting
15 to 25 kt.
Friday through Sunday: VFR. Slight chance of showers Saturday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub small craft conditions remain in place through at least
Wednesday morning as ocean seas are generally expected to run 2 to 3
feet. However, by Wednesday afternoon the winds begin to increase
out ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusts for the near shore and
ocean waters approach 20 kts, especially closer to the shore line.
An Ambrose jet may lead to small craft gusts for a few hours late
Wednesday afternoon for the western ocean, and perhaps portions of
the Central Ocean and the more western south shore bays. Confidence
in the duration of these potential gusts is not high enough at this
time for small craft issuance. Otherwise most places should remain
below small craft criteria during this time frame. Behind the cold
front the winds switch to NW late Wednesday night, then N on
Thursday. A period of small craft gusts are possible by Thursday
morning for all waters and could very well continue through the
afternoon. Ocean seas are expected to be hovering around 4 ft on
Thursday. SCA are expected on the ocean zones Thursday night into
Friday night with wave heights 5-6 feet.
A brief period of sub-SCA may be possible Saturday morning before
waves build back up and winds increase ahead of an approaching cold
front. Marginal SCA wave heights on the ocean will linger through at
least Sunday. For the sheltered waters, gusts increase Saturday
night into Sunday with gusts possibly approaching SCA thresholds of
25kt.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An SPS (Special Weather Statement) has been issued for the Lower
Hudson Valley in Interior Southeast NY, along with Northeast NJ for
the risk of wildfire development on Wednesday. A Red Flag Warning has
been issued for all of Southern CT due to an elevated wildfire risk
on Wednesday. The aforementioned were all coordinated with the
appropriate state agencies.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The prolonged stretch of dry weather continues, thus there are no
hydrologic concerns.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record highs are relatively less likely overall on Wednesday. Here
are the current record highs for October 23rd.
EWR: 87/1947
BDR: 75/2007*
NYC: 85/1947
LGA: 86/1947
JFK: 77/1978
ISP: 78/1978
*Also in other years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for
CTZ005>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MW
NEAR TERM...JE/JT/MW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JE/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JE/MW
CLIMATE...