674
FXUS61 KOKX 231443
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1043 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching from the Great Lakes today will pass
through the area late tonight. High pressure will then build in
from the west through Friday. Another frontal system moves
across the area on Saturday. A stronger high pressure system
moves in Sunday and lingers into the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Fog early this morning has dissipated. Increased moisture with
the southerly flow, and a remaining weak low level inversion has
allowed clouds moving in off the ocean waters to remain along
mainly the south shore of Long Island. By late morning, into
early afternoon the inversion mixes out, and clouds are expected
to mostly dissipate. Otherwise, updated for current conditions
and raised temperatures across inland locations, away from
marine influence.
An upper trough tracking across the Great Lakes today and into
Northeast tonight will send a cold front through the area late
tonight. Expect a mainly dry frontal passage as it runs into a
moisture-starved airmass with little forcing. However, a brief
sprinkle and/or shower is not completely out of the question. Of
the CAMs, the HRRR is the most generous with widely scattered
post-frontal showers developing toward daybreak.
Ahead of the front, gusty south winds will increase to around 20
mph this afternoon. This will result in a stronger maritime
influence and highs cooler today than the record warmth that
the region experienced on Tuesday. Still though, it will be
well above normal with highs in the lower 70s along the coast
and the mid to upper 70s elsewhere. This is about 10 to 15
degrees above normal. It will remain mild tonight as the cold
advection arrives late with lows generally in the 50s. Northerly
winds may gusts up to 20 mph toward daybreak.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper trough weakens while moving across the area during the
morning hours Thursday with the possibility of a brief sprinkle
and/or shower. Best chance will be east of NYC and along the
coast. Model vertical moisture profiles remain very dry,
especially inland. Northerly winds are forecast to gust 20 to
25 mph on Thursday with highs in the 60s. This is still a few
degrees above normal.
Winds will then gradually diminish Thursday evening as high
pressure builds in from the west. Lows will range from the upper
30s inland and across the Pine Barrens region of LI, to the
lower and mid 40s elsewhere. This is close to normal. Patchy
frost may be an issue late at night as winds subside. However,
RH values may be too low to support frost formation.
High pressure settles over the area on Friday. It will be a bit
cooler due to a lowering subsidence inversion. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 60s. Light northerly winds in the morning
become SW in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Very little change in the long term period and stuck fairly close to
the NBM.
The long term period starts off with high pressure sliding east of
the region Friday night. Meanwhile, mid-level energy approaches from
the west bringing with it a subtle shortwave trough and weak surface
frontal system on Saturday. The frontal system may largely be dry,
but a slight chance of showers can`t be ruled out.
Strong high pressure building in thereafter from Saturday night
through Monday will result in fairly breezy NW flow once again with
temperatures dropping once again. Highs on Sunday will likely be in
the 50s for much of the area with cool lows in the upper 30s to 40s.
Similar conditions are expected on Monday. Temperatures start to
moderate a bit Tuesday, with highs in the 60s, as the high slides
offshore and a southerly flow develops.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure offshore drifts further east today. A cold front
passes through late tonight. High pressure builds in behind it.
VFR. Some scattered clouds at 3,000 feet have become broken
MVFR for brief moments this morning, but doesn`t look like it
will last. Should also become a little higher at 3,500 or 4,000
feet as the scattered clouds gradually move east to the rest of
Long Island and Connecticut.
Winds will gradually increase late morning into early afternoon.
They will be S/SW and increase to 10-12kt by afternoon. In
addition, gusts between 20-24kt can also be expected this
afternoon. Gusts may be occasional closer to the coast and have
been handled with TEMPOs in these areas. Gusts end and winds
lighten a bit tonight. Wind direction will shift from the S/SW
to the NW with the passage of a cold front around 07-10z
tonight. Once the winds shifts, winds will increase once again,
with the return of wind gusts into the 20-25kt range.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of gusts may be off by an hour or two. Gusts may be
slightly stronger than forecast.
Occasional broken MVFR has been observed in some scattered
cumulus, but is not expected to be an issue as it moves east and
becomes scattered at 3,500 feet or 4,000 feet.
OUTLOOK FOR 15Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: VFR. N winds gusting 15 to 25 kt.
Friday through Sunday: VFR. Slight chance of showers Saturday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No changes to winds and seas at this time.
A strengthening southerly flow today ahead of an approaching
cold front may gust up to 20 kt this afternoon, especially right
along the immediate coast. Winds will then become northerly
behind a cold frontal passage late tonight with marginal SCA
conditions expected on the ocean waters Thursday and Thursday
night with gusts up to 25 kt and seas building to around 5 ft.
High pressure build in for Friday with sub-SCA conditions.
A brief period of sub-SCA may be possible Saturday morning before
waves build back up and winds increase ahead of an approaching cold
front. Marginal SCA wave heights on the ocean will linger through at
least Sunday. For the sheltered waters, gusts increase Saturday
night into Sunday with gusts possibly approaching SCA thresholds of
25kt.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An SPS (Special Weather Statement) remains in effect for the
Lower Hudson Valley in Southeast NY and for Northeast NJ for
the enhanced risk of wildfire spread today. A Red Flag Warning
remains in effect for all of Southern CT due to an elevated risk
on wildfire spread. Southerly winds may gusts as high as 25 mph
today. The aforementioned were all coordinated with the appropriate
state agencies.
Conditions are likely to be more favorable for wildfire spread
on Thursday with minimum RH values less than 40 percent and
northerly winds gusting 20 to 25 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The prolonged stretch of dry weather continues, thus there are no
hydrologic concerns.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record highs are not likely today, however it will be unseasonably
warm. Here are the record highs for today, October 23rd.
EWR: 87/1947
BDR: 75/2007*
NYC: 85/1947
LGA: 86/1947
JFK: 77/1978
ISP: 78/1978
*Also in other years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/BR
MARINE...BC/MET/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
CLIMATE...