825
FXUS61 KOKX 231956
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
356 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves through the area late tonight. High pressure
will then build in from the west through Friday. Another
frontal system moves across the area on Saturday. A stronger
high pressure system moves in Sunday and lingers into the middle
of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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An amplifying upper trough moving out of the Great Lakes region
and upper Midwest this evening tracks through the area tonight
and moves off the east coast Thursday morning. The system will
bring a cold front through the region late tonight. Little
moisture or upper support will accompany the frontal passage,
and with CAMs and global guidance mainly dry with the passage,
have removed any probabilities, but continue to mention the
slight chance of sprinkles. Mild air remains ahead of the cold
front with lows around 10 degrees above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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With a cold front just east of the region, moving east of Long
Island, by early morning winds will be northerly, with gusts
increasing as colder air moves into the region and mixing
increases through the morning and into the early afternoon.
Gusts will be as high as 25 mph, with a few gusts occasionally
higher, especially during the early afternoon. Winds and gusts
begin to diminish late in the day. Highs will remain above
normal, by around 5 degrees. Winds and gusts diminish through
the night as the center of high pressure builds to just west of
the region by Friday morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Frost may be an issue early Fri AM well inland as winds subside and
RH increases, especially for Orange and western Passaic.
High pressure settling over the area on Friday will slide east Fri
night. It will be a little cooler then Thu due to a lowering
subsidence inversion, with highs mostly in the lower/mid 60s, and a
few upper 60s just west of NYC. Light N winds in the morning become
SW in the afternoon.
Stuck fairly close to the NBM from Sat and beyond, raising high
temps a little where 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF MOS consensus was warmer, and
lowering afternoon dewpoints where blended 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF MOS and
raw model guidance was lower.
Mid level energy passing to the north on Sat will bring a
weak/dry cold front through on Sat. Strong high pressure
building in thereafter will result in fairly breezy NW flow for
they daytime hours this weekend, and lighter winds on Mon, with
temperatures dropping once again. After high temps in the 60s on
Sat, highs on Sunday/Mon should only be in the 50s to near 60,
with lows in the 30s/40s. Some sub freezing temps are possible
in the valleys well inland and in parts of the Long Island Pine
Barrens Mon AM.
Temperatures then moderate a bit Tue/Wed, with highs in the 60s
on Tue, and the upper 60s/lower 70s on Wed, as the high slides
offshore and a S-SW flow develops.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure offshore drifts further east. A cold front passes
through early tomorrow. High pressure builds in behind it.
VFR. Some scattered clouds at 1,500-3,000 feet have become
broken MVFR for brief moments today, but they are occurring
briefly before scattering so have stuck with scattered in the
TAFs.
Winds will be S/SW 10-12kt this afternoon/early evening. In
addition, gusts between 18-22kt can also be expected this
afternoon. Gusts may be occasional at TAF sites and have been
handled with TEMPOs. Gusts end and winds lighten a bit tonight.
Wind direction will shift from the S/SW to the NW with the
passage of a cold front around 08-12z early tomorrow morning.
Once the winds shifts, winds will increase once again, with the
return of wind gusts into the 20-25kt range. This time, the
gusts will more likely be prevailing.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of gusts may be off by an hour or two. Gusts may be
slightly stronger than forecast.
Occasional broken MVFR has been observed in some scattered
cumulus for brief moments, but is not expected to be an issue
as they have mainly been few to scattered.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday: VFR. N winds gusting 15 to 25 kt.
Friday-early Saturday: VFR.
Saturday afternoon-evening: VFR. Slight chance showers.
N/NW G 15-20kt.
Sunday-Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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A small craft advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters
Thursday and Thursday night as southerly winds become northerly
behind a cold front that moves through the waters late tonight.
Hazardous ocean seas likely to continue Fri into Fri night, possibly
on the outermost ocean waters Sat morning. Post-frontal NW flow
should gust up to 25 kt on the ocean and Sound Sat night, with ocean
seas building as high as 5 ft as well. Any lingering 25-kt gusts and
5-ft seas early Sunday AM should subside, with quiet conditions
thereafter into Mon night with high pressure in control.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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An SPS (Special Weather Statement) remains in effect for the
Lower Hudson Valley in Southeastern NY and for Northeastern NJ
for the enhanced risk of wildfire spread today. Another SPS
(Special Weather Statement) was issued for Northeastern NJ for
enhanced risk of wildfire spread for Thursday. A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for all of Southern CT due to an
elevated risk on wildfire spread today. The aforementioned were
all coordinated with the appropriate state agencies.
Conditions are likely to be more favorable for wildfire spread
on Thursday with minimum RH values less than 40 percent and
northerly winds gusting 20 to 25 mph.
Temps will be cooler this weekend into early next week, but with min
afternoon RH 25-35 percent from Fri into Mon. NW winds may also gust
close to 20 mph during the afternoon hours this weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The prolonged stretch of dry weather continues, thus there are no
hydrologic concerns.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BG/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET