474
FXUS61 KOKX 241003
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
603 AM EDT Thu Oct 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Following a cold frontal passage this morning, high pressure will
build in from the west through Friday. Another cold front will
then move through the area late Friday night into Saturday
morning, followed by high pressure building in through early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cold front has all but pushed through far eastern LI and SE CT.
Mixing right behind the front has allowed temperatures to
actually rise several degrees with many locations still in the
60s. There are also post-frontal sprinkles, possibly a shower.
Weak lift and abundant dry air in place will result in little
if any rainfall.
The associated upper trough will work slowly east across the
area today. A sprinkle and/or brief shower can`t be ruled out
into early afternoon, mainly east of NYC and the Lower Hudson
Valley. Gusty north winds of 20 to 25 mph will develop as the
morning progresses, and then perhaps weaken some heading into
the afternoon as winds diminish aloft with the upper trough
overhead. Also, expect clearing from west to east this morning
into this afternoon.
Cooler air will be slow to filter in today with highs in the
mid to upper 60s. While it will be cooler than previous days,
this is still about 5 degrees above normal.
Northerly winds will gradually diminish tonight as high pressure
builds in from the west. Lows will be close to normal, ranging
from the upper 30s inland, to the lower and mid 40s at the
coast. The Pine Barrens region of LI may also dip into the upper
30s. Max RH values overnight are generally below 90 percent, so
any frost looks to be patchy in nature at this time. Thus, no
frost advisory planned.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure moves through the area on Friday with a light
northerly flow in the morning backing to the W/SW. It will also
be a bit cooler with highs in the lower to mid 60s, mainly due
to a lowering subsidence inversion limiting the depth of the
mixed layer. In fact, the area will be under weak warm advection
as another cold front approaches from the west. The front passes
through dry late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Lows
will be in the 40s to lower 50s, with high up into the mid and
upper 60s Saturday. A gusty NW flow develops as well on Saturday
behind the cold front.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Very little change in the long term period and stuck fairly close to
the NBM.
The long term period starts off with strong high pressure building
into the region in the wake of a cold frontal passage. The high will
build overhead late Sunday, then slide east of the region Monday
night into Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected through long term
period.
Temperatures remain rather cool as the high builds in, with highs
only in the 50s to near 60 both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures then
start to moderate as the high starts to slide offshore and southerly
winds develop. Highs on Tuesday will be in the middle and upper 60s,
then into the 70s on Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will
fall into the 30s and 40s Saturday night through Monday night,
before warming on the southerly flow. Lows in the 40s and 50s can be
expected Tuesday and Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will continue to move across the area early this
morning. High pressure will build back into the area behind the
front.
VFR. Some IFR conditions are being observed at KGON, however this
should not last too long. Once the front moves across the area, all
the terminals return to VFR for the remainder of the TAF period.
WindS have already shift from the S/SW to the NW this morning. It
may take a few hours for the gusts to start, mainly at or shortly
after sunrise. Expect gusts to peak in the 20-25 kt range mainly
from mid to late morning into the early afternoon. N/NW flow
continues through the end of the TAF period, lightening up a bit
this evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of gusts and wind shift may be off by an hour or two.
Gusts may be slightly stronger than forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night-early Saturday: VFR.
Saturday afternoon-evening: VFR. N/NW G15-20kt.
Sunday-Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA on the ocean has been extended into Friday as Northerly
wind today gust up to 25 kt, before subsiding some heading into
the afternoon. Seas will build to around 5 ft due to a building
ESE swell from low pressure lifting north across the western
Atlantic. Seas are forecast to subside below 5 ft Friday evening.
NW gusts on Saturday behind another cold frontal passage could
approach 25 kt.
Post-frontal NW flow could gust up to 25 kt on the ocean and
Sound Sat night, with ocean seas building as high as 5 ft as
well. Any lingering 25-kt gusts and 5-ft seas early Sunday
morning should subside, with quiet conditions thereafter with
high pressure in control.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Conditions should be favorable for wildfire spread today with
min RH less than 40 percent and N winds gusting to 20-25 mph.
SPS in effect for entire CWA.
Temps will be cooler this weekend into early next week, but with
min afternoon RH 25-35 percent from Fri into Mon. NW winds may
also gust close to 20 mph during the afternoon hours this
weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The prolonged stretch of dry weather continues, thus there are
no hydrologic concerns.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW