620
FXUS61 KOKX 242014
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
414 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the west through Friday. Another cold
front will then move through the area late Friday night into
Saturday morning, followed by high pressure building in through
the middle of next week. A warm front will also pass to the north
Tuesday into Tuesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper trough swinging east pushed a cold front through earlier
in the day, and skies have quickly cleared out behind it this
afternoon, with the exception of eastern CT and the LI Forks. In
its wake tonight, ridging and surface high pressure build in
from the Midwest.
The gusty northerly winds subside early this evening, and a clear,
quiet night is ahead as the high settles in. The lightening winds
and clear skies may allow for some areas of frost development in the
coldest locales tonight, generally confined to the far interior.
Hoisted a Frost Advisory for Orange Co, where temperatures look just
cold enough in the low to mid 30s for areas of frost to be possible
if enough low-level moisture exists. Elsewhere, temperatures
won`t be quite as cool, generally bottoming out in the 40s along
the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
After a chilly start, with the potential for a bit of frost across
the interior, the work week comes to a cool and dry close.
Heights climb as ridging amplifies over the region on Friday with
surface high pressure building overhead. The subsidence should
maintain abundantly clear skies much of the day. Winds will be much
lighter in a weak pressure gradient. It will also be a bit cooler
with highs in the low to mid 60s, mainly due to the lowering
subsidence inversion limiting the depth of the mixed layer.
Winds back to the south and west in the afternoon as the high sags
south, and a bit of high clouds may attempt to sneak in late ahead
of another approaching cold front, though conditions are expected to
remain entirely dry through Friday night. Temperatures run mild
overnight with the ongoing weak WAA, with lows generally ranging
from the mid 40s to mid 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will pass through Saturday morning, followed by a
drying/gusty NW flow and temps a few degrees above normal before CAA
kicks in later in the day and at night, with lows in the 30s and
40s. Sunday and Monday will be on the cooler side, with temps a few
degrees below normal, mostly in the mid/upper 50s, with some lower
60s in parts of the NYC metro area. Some near to sub freezing temps
are possible in the interior valleys Sunday night and Mon night.
Moderation in temps will begin on Tue, with temps returning to near
normal. Then as a warm front passes to the north, another
unseasonably warm stretch expected, with highs in the 70s both Wed
and Thu, possibly nearing 80 in urban NE NJ per blend of NBM and its
75th percentile.
Dry wx expected through the period, which would put the driest
October or all-time driest month of record in jeopardy at our
climate sites.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in into the evening and remains tomorrow.
VFR through the TAF period.
NW winds currently sustained at 10-17 kts gusting between 19-25 kts.
Gusts will weaken into the evening. N/NW flow continues through the
end of the TAF period, lightening up below 10 kt tonight. Winds turn
S/SW with a seabreeze tomorrow late morning/early afternoon at 5-10
kts.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of gusts ending may be off by a few hours as they taper off
gradually.
OUTLOOK FOR 20Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday-early Saturday: VFR.
Saturday afternoon-evening: VFR. N/NW G15-20kt.
Sunday-Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean thru Friday
afternoon. Northerly gusts up to 25 kt subsides this evening, though
seas around 5 ft linger through late Friday afternoon before
lowering Friday evening.
After a cold frontal passage on Sat, SCA cond expected on the ocean
daytime Sat into Sat night, with 5+ ft seas and NW winds gusting to
25-30 kt. NY Harbor and the ern Sound/Bays will also likely see SCA
cond Sat afternoon and early evening with gusts 25-30 kt. The south
shore bays and the nearshore CT coastline may also see occasional
gusts close to 25 kt at times Sat afternoon. Quiet cond follow
thereafter with high pressure in control.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Conditions are expected to be marginally favorable for wildfire
spread on Friday with min RH less than 40 percent, but winds won`t
be nearly as strong, generally 5 to 10 mph. An SPS may be needed for
at least portions of the forecast area.
Temps will be cooler this weekend into early next week, but with min
afternoon RH 25-35 percent from Fri into Mon. NW winds may also
gust to 25-30 mph Sat afternoon and early evening, with
meteorological conditions meeting red flag criteria in NE NJ and
in/just outside NYC, and close to it for the rest of NE NJ, the
NYC metro area, and up into parts of the lower Hudson Valley
and most of S CT. Winds will also gust up to 20 mph at times
on Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
The prolonged stretch of dry weather continues and there are no
hydrologic concerns.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NYZ067.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BG/DR
FIRE WEATHER...BG/DR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR