827
FXUS61 KOKX 251955
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
355 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure across the area drifts offshore tonight as a wave of
low pressure and a cold front approach. The cold front moves
through the area during the early morning hours Saturday. Another
large area of high pressure then builds in Saturday and Sunday.
A back door cold front will move through from the north late
Sunday night into Monday morning, with high pressure building in
its wake out of eastern Canada Monday into Tuesday. The front
will lift back to the north as a warm front Tuesday night as the
high sets up off the Southeast coast. A weakening cold front
should pass through on Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure over the region weakens and drifts south and east
as a weak wave of low pressure and cold front moving through
the eastern Great Lakes approaches through tonight, moving
through the area late tonight into early Saturday morning. This
system is expect to move through dry as little moisture is
available, with weak forcing. The upper ridge axis has moved
offshore with a weak shortwave moving into and through the
region late tonight. After temperatures initially fall this
evening, temperatures will be slower to decline late this
evening into late tonight with weak warm advection and increased
cloud cover. Overnight lows will be just above normal. Cold
advection then sets up toward 12Z with the surface cold front
passage.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Despite the cold front, temperatures will not be that much
cooler than Friday, with highs a few degrees above normal.
However, a gusty northwest flow develops early in the morning,
with gusts 20 to 30 miles per hour. Low relative humidity and
gusty winds will also elevate the spread of wildfires. See Fire
Weather section below.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure will build from the west on Sunday beneath weakly
cyclonic flow aloft courtesy of a broad upper trough and closed low
over ern Canada. A shortwave trough digging into the base of the
longer wave feature will push a back door cold front through late
Sunday night into Mon and maintain cool temps into Mon night, with
some frost inland each late night/early morning til then as high
pressure builds SE into the area. A return flow on Tue as the high
passes to the southeast should bring some moderation in temps back
to a few degrees above normal.
A significant warming trend expected for mid to late week as a warm
front passes to the north and a Bermuda high sets up off the SE
coast. High temps will be in the 70s from Wed through Fri, and may
approach 80 in spots in urban NE NJ and in some interior valley
spots.
Dry wx should continue through the period. An approaching front may
bring slight chance of a shower inland late Thu night. Latest ECMWF
looks a little more robust with fropa but its rainfall amts are sill
rather light, with less than 0.1 inch for most of the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure weakens over the area today. A cold front passes
through early Saturday morning, with high pressure building in
thereafter.
VFR through the TAF period.
Winds W-SW under 10 kt this afternoon with sea breezes and synoptic
flow. Light W-SW winds tonight, then winds shift to the NW around
12Z Saturday behind the cold front. Speeds increase during the day
Saturday with gusts around 25kt possible late morning through the
afternoon. Gusts could occasionally be a few kt higher.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift Saturday morning could be off by a few hours as
well as the start time of gusts.
Gusts could occasionally be a few kt higher than what the TAF shows.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Afternoon: VFR. NW wind gusts around 25kt.
Sunday-Monday: VFR.
Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR. S wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Long period southeast swells continue across the ocean waters
with seas at marginal small craft levels. Seas may briefly fall
below 5 feet late tonight into early Saturday morning. However,
with the passage of a cold front early Saturday morning
northwest winds and gusts will increase, along with the ocean
seas, so have extended the advisory through Saturday night. On
the non ocean waters wind gusts are expected to reach SCA
levels Saturday morning, and continue into the early evening
Saturday on New York Harbor, and the remainder of the non ocean
waters into late Saturday night. And, a SCA has been issued for
these waters Saturday into Saturday night.
Mostly quiet from Sunday through Wed with high pressure generally in
control. Ocean seas may reach 5 ft E of Fire Island Inlet Wed
night as SW flow increases to near 20 kt.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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Conditions remain marginally favorable for wildfire spread into
early this evening, with relative humidity 25 to 35 percent,
with winds generally 5 to 10 mph. A Special Weather Statement
(SPS) remains in effect for NE NJ and S CT.
Dry weather continues through the weekend with relative
humidity lowering to around 30 percent Saturday across much of
the region, and 25 to 30 percent Sunday. Gusty NW winds of 20 to
30 MPH are expected behind a cold front Saturday. Winds will
be considerably weaker for Sunday and Monday with with afternoon
RH still low, 20-30% on Sunday and 25-35% on Mon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The prolonged stretch of dry weather continues and there are no
hydrologic concerns.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday
for ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BG/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET