019
FXUS61 KOKX 260117
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
917 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region late tonight into early
Saturday morning. Another large area of high pressure building
in for the weekend. A back door cold front will move through
from the north late Sunday night into Monday morning, with high
pressure building in its wake out of eastern Canada Monday into
Tuesday. The front will lift back to the north as a warm front
Tuesday night as the high sets up off the Southeast coast. A
weakening cold front should pass through on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track. High pressure will continue weakening tonight
as a cold front approaches. The front should move through early
Saturday morning. Only expecting an increase in mid and high
level clouds with conditions remaining dry. Overnight lows will
be just above normal. Cold advection then sets up toward day
break with the passage of the cold front.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Despite the cold front, temperatures will not be that much
cooler than Friday, with highs a few degrees above normal.
However, a gusty northwest flow develops early in the morning,
with gusts 25-30 mph. Low relative humidity and gusty winds
will also elevate the spread of wildfires. See Fire Weather
section below.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will build from the west on Sunday beneath weakly
cyclonic flow aloft courtesy of a broad upper trough and closed
low over ern Canada. A shortwave trough digging into the base of
the longer wave feature will push a back door cold front
through late Sunday night into Mon and maintain cool temps into
Mon night, with some frost inland each late night/early morning
til then as high pressure builds SE into the area. A return flow
on Tue as the high passes to the southeast should bring some
moderation in temps back to a few degrees above normal.
A significant warming trend expected for mid to late week as a
warm front passes to the north and a Bermuda high sets up off
the SE coast. High temps will be in the 70s from Wed through
Fri, and may approach 80 in spots in urban NE NJ and in some
interior valley spots.
Dry wx should continue through the period. An approaching front
may bring slight chance of a shower inland late Thu night.
Latest ECMWF looks a little more robust with fropa but its
rainfall amts are sill rather light, with less than 0.1 inch for
most of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves across the terminals late tonight into early
Saturday morning. High pressure follows thereafter.
VFR through the TAF period.
SW winds . Winds will veer to the W and then NW late tonight
into early Saturday with the frontal passage. NW winds then
increase to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt late morning and will
continue into the early evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind shift to NW and start time of gusts could be off by 1-2 hours.
Gusts on Saturday could be a few kt higher at times in the
afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Night: VFR. NW wind gusts around 20-25kt early.
Sunday-Monday: VFR.
Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Long period SE swells continue across the ocean waters with
seas mostly 3-4 ft but occasionally reaching 5 ft. With the
passage of a cold front early Sat morning, NW winds and gusts
will increase, along with ocean seas, so have extended the SCA
through Sat night. SCA also issued for the non ocean waters, as
wind gusts reach SCA levels Sat morning, and continue into
early evening on New York Harbor, and into late night on the
remainder of the non ocean waters.
Mostly quiet from Sunday through Wed with high pressure
generally in control. Ocean seas may reach 5 ft E of Fire
Island Inlet Wed night as SW flow increases to near 20 kt.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warning issued for Saturday for S CT, and SPS for SE
NY and NE NJ, for elevated risk of fire growth/spread. Dry
weather will continue with RH lowering to near 30% across much
of the region. Gusty NW winds of 25-30 mph expected behind a
cold front Sat morning.
Winds will be considerably weaker for Sunday and Monday with
afternoon RH still low, 20-30% on Sunday and 25-35% on Mon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The prolonged stretch of dry weather continues and there are no
hydrologic concerns.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for CTZ005>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday
for ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET