531
FXUS61 KOKX 261525
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1125 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold frontal passage this morning allows high pressure to
build in through Monday. The high builds offshore Monday night
into Tuesday, while a warm front lifts northeast across the
Great Lakes. The latter of which will pass through the area
Tuesday night. The trailing cold front over the Upper
Mississippi Valley Wednesday will track east and across the area
late Thursday night into Friday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast mainly on track. Clouds exiting eastern sections of the
region. Cold front pushing farther offshore.
Expecting efficient vertical mixing with NW flow. Raised max
temperatures a few degrees compared to previous forecast, with
NBM 95th percentile being used. Relative humidities are lower as
a result with min RH now down to near 20 percent for some
locations. This along with gusty winds has elevated fire weather
concerns and Red Flag Warning has been expanded to include the
entire forecast region. See Fire Weather section for more
details.
The winds will decrease this eve, but with CAA it will be
difficult for winds to go calm. As a result, will continue to
fcst at least a lgt wind thru the overnight all but the most
sheltered interior locations.
Stuck close to the the NBM for temps thru the period with a
well mixed bl.
High fire danger today. Please see the fire weather section
blw.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A broad area of high pres builds in on Sun, resulting in light
winds and cooler temps. The NBM was followed for highs which
are progged to remain mainly in the 50s. A weak backdoor front
approaches from the N Sun ngt. As a result, the pres grad may
strengthen enough to develop a wly flow across the area and keep
temps from bottoming out. The guidance is generally split on
this, particularly near the coasts, so stuck close to the NBM
which is middle of the road. Some freezing temps will be
possible in the normally colder outlying areas.
The backdoor front comes thru on Mon with a change in wind
direction and reinforcement of the cooler airmass. No moisture
to work with so kept the fcst dry. The NBM was followed with
highs a little blw normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure builds offshore at the start of the period,
while a warm front lifts northeast across the Great Lakes. The
latter of which will pass through the area Tuesday night. This will
mark the start of an anomalously warm midweek period as a broad
upper ridge east of the Mississippi River Valley amplifies as it
works toward the eastern seaboard. A deep-layered WSW flow will
increase 85h temps to 12-14C by late Wednesday. NBM box and whisker
plots surprisingly show very little spread Wed and Thu. The NBM90 is
only a couple of degrees warmer than the deterministic, which is
fairly close to the median (50th percentile). Thus, confidence is
high for unusually warm temperatures of about 10 to 15 degree above
normal. Highs are forecast to get into the 70s for most locations,
with NE NJ up around 80 by Thursday. There is a bit more spread
though heading into Friday due to some timing differences amongst
the global models with a cold frontal passage. The only chance for
rain at this time looks to be from showers Thursday night into
Friday morning along and ahead of the cold front. This boundary like
many of late looks to lack decent forcing and moisture, but time
will tell.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in through tonight.
VFR. NW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt. Winds diminish a little
this evening but remain gusty. Gusts then end overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds should prevail right (north) of 310 magnetic today.
There is some uncertainty as to how quickly gusts end tonight.
Preference at this time is to stay with gusts through about 06Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday-Monday: VFR.
Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A sca remains in effect into tngt for the area waters, with the
ocean the last zones to fall blw criteria early Sun mrng. Winds
and seas then look to remain blw sca lvls thru Mon.
High pressure retreats offshore Monday night into Tuesday with a
gradually strengthening southerly flow. Ocean seas may reach 5
ft E of Fire Island Inlet Wed night as SW flow increases to
near 20 kt.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Red Flag Warning remains in effect today for S CT, but has been
expanded to include the rest of the forecast zones in SE NY and
NE NJ, for elevated risk of fire growth/spread. Dry weather
will continue with RH lowering to near 20-30% across much of
the region. Gusty NW winds of 25-30 mph will develop and
continue through this afternoon. Relatively highest wind gusts
and lowest RH is expected between 2 and 5PM.
Winds will be considerably weaker for Sunday and Monday with
afternoon RH still low, 20-30% on Sunday and 30-40% on Mon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ211>213.
NJ...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/DW
MARINE...JMC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW