313
FXUS61 KOKX 270231
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1031 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in through Sunday. A backdoor cold
front moves across Sunday night. High pressure builds over the
Northeast on Monday, shifting east Tuesday and remaining just
offshore through midweek. A cold front then approaches from the
west by Thursday, potentially moving through the region next
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast remains on track with no significant changes. Only
minor adjustments to the temperatures to account for the latest
observations.
Lightening winds and clear skies with high pressure building in
will set up a chilly, but quiet, night across the local Tri
State. A Special Weather Statement is in effect for all land
zones on Sunday given the continued risk for wildfire spread.
For tonight, winds subside and RH goes up naturally as
temperatures lower. Expecting mostly clear sky conditions
tonight as high pressure continues to build in from the west.
MAV/MET blend for temperatures used with radiational cooling
expected.
The center of the high pressure area stays west of the
region and the pressure gradient remains tight enough between
this high and low pressure well into the Canadian Maritimes, to
keep a steady northerly flow much of the night but becoming
nearly calm for into early Sunday morning.
Lows forecast range from the low 30s in interior and rural
locations and mid 40s within parts of NYC. Winds stay up enough
in the forecast to limit radiational cooling but becoming nearly
calm for interior, so here more areas of frost are forecast.
LAMP trended slightly colder and less wind for interior
locations. Frost advisory in effect for Western Passaic NJ,
Orange NY, Putnam NY, Northern Fairfield CT, and Northern New
Haven CT from 3AM to 9AM Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in for Sunday. A backdoor cold front moves
across Sunday night. Pressure gradient weakens with winds
decreasing with less gusts. Light expected for all of Sunday
night.
Dry weather conditions are expected. MAV/MET blend used for the
high and low temperature forecasts. With 850mb temperatures
trending a few degrees cooler compared to the previous day,
likewise surface temperatures will also trend cooler. Highs
forecast range from the low to upper 60s, roughly 10 degrees
cooler than the previous day.
This will be followed by a colder night for most locations as
more radiational cooling can be expected. Frost and freeze
potential for interior and rural locations. Lows forecast range
from near 30 for these colder interior and rural locations to
mid 40s for parts of NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The week ahead will continue to feature abnormally dry conditions,
as well as abnormally warm weather for the time of year. As a mid
level trough axis exits offshore Monday, surface high pressure
builds over the Northeast, sagging a cold front south through the
region and reinforcing the cooler air mass in place, at least
initially. Monday will be the coolest day of the period given this,
with highs generally in the upper 50s in the afternoon.
The high shifts off the New England coast Tuesday as deep ridging
begins to amplify over the Central and Eastern US. The resultant SW
flow advects in a much warmer air mass. The WAA will bring in higher
moisture content as well, and should increase cloud cover Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Global guidance progs H5 near 588dm locally by
midweek, or nearly +2 STD. With 925 mb temperatures increasing to
between 16C and 18C, surface temperatures should be able to achieve
mid 70s for most both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, with the
potential for the warmest locales in urban NE NJ to approach or
exceed 80F. Given the values, this looks to be potentially one of
the warmest Halloweens on record for the region with daily record
highs possible at multiple sites.
Despite the persistent dry weather, the threat for rapid fire spread
should lower early in the week as daytime RH values increase. See
the Fire Weather section farther down for additional detail. The
next realistic rainfall could finally arrive by Friday, as a cold
front approaches from the west. PoPs increase to chance (25-40%)
during this time, with greatest values across the interior. Still
lots of spread and uncertainty at this stage however, and a
widespread rainfall is far from a guarantee with this system.
Blended in a bit lower dew pts Wed and Thu, and went closer to NBM90
for max Ts these days as well, otherwise, the national blended
consensus was generally followed.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds in through tonight.
VFR. NW winds gradually diminishing this evening with
occasional gusts possible through 6Z. Wind backs to the W by
late morning/early afternoon Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End time of prevailing gusts may be off by a few hours. Gusts
may become more occasional before ending
OUTLOOK FOR 03Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Night-Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR, but chance of MVFR east of the city terminals.
Wednesday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Thursday: VFR. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for all forecast waters through early this
evening for wind gusts up to near 25 kt and some potential for
ocean seas to build to 5 ft. Gusts gradually subside tonight,
with NY Harbor dropping below SCA criteria after 8PM and then
all other non-ocean waters below SCA after 4AM Sunday. The
ocean SCA goes until 6AM Sunday where higher gusts will last
longest.
With a weakening pressure gradient for the rest of the weekend,
Sunday through Sunday night, sub-SCA conditions are expected.
Winds and seas are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria on all waters Monday through at least Tuesday.
Strengthening southerly flow midweek may build ocean seas toward
5 ft, and allow wind gusts to exceed 25 kt by Wednesday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather continues on Sunday with RH near 20-30% across much
of the region. Winds will be light, near 5 to 10 mph with some
gusts early day to near 20 mph, but much less than the previous
day. Given how dry fuels and conditions remain, a Special
Weather Statement was issued for all land zones to highlight the
continued risk of wildfire spread, should ignition occur.
Afternoon RH values climb through early next week, between 30 and
40% Monday afternoon, increasing to over 50% by Tuesday. Coupled
with light winds, this should lower the risk of wildfire spread,
though dry conditions are expected to persist into late week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ005-006.
NY...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DR
NEAR TERM...JM/MW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JM/DR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR