178
FXUS61 KOKX 271755
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
155 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the area today. A weak frontal passage
early Monday allows high pressure to strengthen over the area
through Tuesday. Low pressure tracking across the Upper Midwest
Tuesday night sends a warm front across the area. The trailing
cold front over the Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday will
track east and through the area on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure builds in from the W today, with the center of
the high setting up S of LI by late in the day. This setup will
result in light NW winds becoming westerly this afternoon. Sunny
with temperatures at or below normal today with a cooler
airmass in place. H85 temps below zero for the entire area.

A very weak backdoor front passes around 12Z Mon, producing a
wind shift to the N. Winds very lgt however generally 5kt or
less. The temp fcst for tngt is a challenge because of the
potential for mid and high clouds ahead of the front. As a
result, blended in some of the colder MET/MAV with the NBM to
compensate for the lgt winds, but did not go all the way because
of the cloud potential. Based on these fcst numbers, issued a
Freeze Watch for Orange county.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry and relatively cool on Mon, along with lgt winds, as a mid
1030s high builds in from the N.

Onshore sly flow develops by Mon ngt, with the potential for a
stratus deck developing around 3k ft. The NAM suggests lower
with chances for some light rain and dz from the low stratus on
Tue. The NAM llvl moisture is often overdone, so have held off
on pops for Tue attm. Did increase cloud cover abv the NBM on
Tue with the llvl moisture axis over the area in a warm frogen
regime.

Temps were the NBM with some local tweaks. The onshore flow on
Tue will result in noticeably higher humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Global models remain in very good agreement in building an
anomalously strong upper ridge across the eastern third of the
country on Wednesday, and then shifting it offshore for the second
half of the week as an upper trough approaches from the Great Lakes.
The latter of which will send a cold front through the area on
Friday. The trend has been slower the last 24h for the cold frontal
passage.

At the onset of the period, low pressure tracking across the Upper
Midwest sends a warm front across the the area Tuesday night. There
is a low chance of showers in the warm advection preceding the
front. A deep-layered SW flow will bring very warm air into the
region for Wednesday and Thursday. 85H temps are still on target for
12-14C during this time. Highs and lows are forecast to be 10-15
degrees above normal at this time with temperatures approaching
record levels. The warmest day will be on Thursday where much of the
area is well into the 70s, and possibly 80 across NE NJ. As
mentioned yesterday, this remains a high confidence forecast. NBM
box and whisker plots show very little difference with the NBM 90th
percentile only slightly higher than the median (50th). The
deterministic is around the 75th percentile. There is more spread
heading into Friday with the cold frontal passage, which has trended
slower. There also remains a chance of showers late Thursday night
into Friday along and ahead of the cold front. This does not look
like a wet system at this time with less than a 0.25" of rainfall
from the 00Z globals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure in place through much of the TAF period. A cold front moving southward across the region for Monday will bring an associated switch of flow to more easterly but otherwise no significant changes have been made with latest TAFs. VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds near 5-10 kts through the TAF period. Much of the time winds are expected to remain under 10 kts. Wind direction transitions from W-NW to W-SW and then becomes variable tonight into early Monday. Winds become more NE Monday morning and eventually more SE Monday afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of more SW wind at KJFK and KLGA could be off by 1-2 hours. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday: VFR. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but chance of MVFR east of the city terminals for Tuesday night. S-SE wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, but chance of MVFR east of the city terminals for early Wednesday. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible. Thursday: VFR initially, but a chance of MVFR Thursday night with a chance of showers. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt possible. Friday: Possible MVFR early with showers. Otherwise, becoming mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt day into early evening. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... All waters blw sca lvls thru Mon due to high pres. Sly winds increase on Tue with mrgnl sca winds possible, particularly on the ocean. A strengthening southerly flow midweek may build ocean seas toward 5 ft, and allow wind gusts to exceed 25 kt on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry weather continues today with min RH near 20-30%. Winds will be light, near 5 to 10 mph. Ocnl gusts to around 20 mph possible this mrng. Given how dry fuels and conditions remain, a Special Weather Statement was issued for all land zones to highlight the continued risk of wildfire spread, should ignition occur. Afternoon RH values climb through early next week, between 30 and 40% Monday afternoon, increasing to over 50% by Tuesday. Coupled with light winds, this should lower the risk of wildfire spread, though dry conditions are expected to persist into late week. && .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns through the period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for NYZ067. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW NEAR TERM...JMC/JC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JM MARINE...JMC/DW FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW