986
FXUS61 KOKX 271937
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
337 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds into the Northeast through Monday before
shifting offshore on Tuesday. A warm front then lifts through
the region Tuesday night, with a trailing cold eventually moving
through the region Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure will be the main weather feature tonight, however a
dry cold front will dropping down from the NE and may enter portions
of the forecast area by daybreak. Regarding frost/freeze headlines,
there`s some uncertainty regarding the amount of cloud cover that
may drift over the northern zones in association with 700-600mb
moisture pushing in overnight. Enough cloudiness would tend to work
against frost formation and freezing temperatures. This would more
likely be a factor across interior CT than anywhere else. Hedged the
low temperature forecast by blending in NBM with some bias-corrected
MOS. While freezing temperatures are forecast across parts of
interior CT and Putnam County, not thinking that it will be
widespread enough to go with a freeze warning. Still a good enough
probability of freezing temps for enough of Orange County for a
freeze warning tonight. As for frost headlines where there is no
current freeze warning, expecting patchy to areas of frost. Would be
more confident in issuing frost advisories across the northernmost
zones if there was high confidence in a clear sky through the night
and if dewpoints were higher (which may still be forecast to be too
high).-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The cold front pushes through and dissipates during Monday morning,
leaving us with a light onshore flow for the rest of the day.
Mostly sunny with high temperatures at or slightly below normal,
mostly 55 to 60.
A light SE flow in the low levels will transport some moisture our
way Monday night. The moisture will be shallow - confined mainly
below 850mb with little, if any, lift. Some hi-res models,
especially the typically overdone NAM, imply some drizzle late at
night. Thinking is that it remains dry with the lack of lift and
this being only the first night of onshore flow. Additionally, no
frost/freeze concerns this time with milder overnight lows.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Global models remain in agreement building an anomalously strong
upper ridge across the eastern third of the country midweek,
shifting it offshore for the second half of the week as a trough
approaches from the Great Lakes. The latter of which will send a
cold front through the area on Friday.
The high shifts off the New England coast Tuesday as deep ridging
begins to amplify over the Central and Eastern US. Low pressure
tracking through the Upper Midwest sends a warm front through the
region and the resultant SW flow begins to advect in a much warmer
air mass. The WAA and onshore flow will help expand cloud cover and
can`t entirely rule out a few rain showers or sprinkles developing
with the increased moisture and weak lift Tuesday night or early
Wednesday, especially for eastern areas.
Global guidance progs H5 near 588dm locally by Wednesday, or nearly
+2 STD. With 925 mb temperatures increasing to between 16C and 18C,
surface temperatures should be able to achieve mid 70s for most both
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, with the potential for the warmest
locales in urban NE NJ to approach or exceed 80F. Given the values,
this looks to be one of the warmest Halloweens on record for the
region with daily record highs possible at multiple sites.
The next chance for a wider rainfall could finally arrive Friday, as
an attendant cold front finally approaches from the west. Timing
still needs to be fully resolved, but 12Z guidance keeps the bulk of
the region dry Thursday night, bringing a round of rain showers
Friday morning. For now, capped PoPs at chance (25-40%). Conditions
look to dry out once again into the weekend as high pressure returns
behind the fropa.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure in place through much of the TAF period. A cold front
moving southward across the region for Monday will bring an
associated switch of flow to more easterly but otherwise no
significant changes have been made with latest TAFs.
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds near 5-10 kts
through the TAF period. Much of the time winds are expected to
remain under 10 kts. Wind direction transitions from W-NW to W-SW
and then becomes variable tonight into early Monday. Winds become
more NE Monday morning and eventually more SE Monday afternoon.
There could be some occasional gusts to 15 to 20 kt before 00Z
Monday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of more SW wind at KJFK and KLGA could be off by 1-2 hours.
An occasional gust to 15 to 20 kt possible before 00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but chance of MVFR east of the city terminals
for Tuesday night with possible rain showers. S-SE wind gusts 15-20
kt afternoon into early evening.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, but chance of MVFR east of the city terminals
for early Wednesday with possible rain showers. SW wind gusts 15-20
kt possible.
Thursday: VFR initially, but a chance of MVFR Thursday night with
possible rain showers. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt. SW wind gusts 20-25
kt possible.
Friday: Possible MVFR during the day with showers, mainly east of
NYC terminals. Otherwise, becoming VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt day
into early evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Conditions remain below advisory thresholds on all waters
through Monday night as high a pressure ridge near the region
maintains light winds through the period. Winds increase
somewhat thereafter, but conditions should still remain below
advisory criteria through at least Wednesday. Strengthening
southerly flow midweek may build ocean seas toward 5 ft, and
allow wind gusts to exceed 25 kt by Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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Dry weather continues for the remainder of the day with light
winds and min RH ranging mostly 15-30%. Given how dry fuels and
conditions remain, a Special Weather Statement remains posted
for the rest of this afternoon for all land zones to highlight
the continued risk of wildfire spread, should ignition occur.
Afternoon minimum RH values climb through the next couple of
days, between 30 and 40% Monday afternoon, increasing to over
50% for Tuesday. Coupled with light winds, this should lower the
risk of wildfire spread, though dry conditions are expected to
persist into late week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for NYZ067.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/DR
FIRE WEATHER...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR