462
FXUS61 KOKX 280246
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1046 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the Northeast through Monday before
shifting offshore on Tuesday. A warm front then lifts through
the region Tuesday night, with a trailing cold eventually moving
through the region Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with no significant updates, just
updated hourly temperatures to account for the latest
observations. Mostly clear skies will offer a quiet, chilly
night for the region.
High pressure will be the main weather feature tonight, however
a dry cold front will dropping down from the NE and may enter
portions of the forecast area by daybreak. Regarding
frost/freeze headlines, there`s some uncertainty regarding the
amount of cloud cover that may drift over the northern zones in
association with 700-600mb moisture pushing in overnight. Enough
cloudiness would tend to work against frost formation and
freezing temperatures. This would more likely be a factor across
interior CT than anywhere else. Hedged the low temperature
forecast by blending in NBM with some bias-corrected MOS. While
freezing temperatures are forecast across parts of interior CT
and Putnam County, not thinking that it will be widespread
enough to go with a freeze warning. Still a good enough
probability of freezing temps for enough of Orange County for a
freeze warning tonight. As for frost headlines where there is no
current freeze warning, expecting patchy to areas of frost.
Would be more confident in issuing frost advisories across the
northernmost zones if there was high confidence in a clear sky
through the night and if dewpoints were higher (which may still
be forecast to be too high).-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front pushes through and dissipates during Monday morning,
leaving us with a light onshore flow for the rest of the day.
Mostly sunny with high temperatures at or slightly below normal,
mostly 55 to 60.
A light SE flow in the low levels will transport some moisture our
way Monday night. The moisture will be shallow - confined mainly
below 850mb with little, if any, lift. Some hi-res models,
especially the typically overdone NAM, imply some drizzle late at
night. Thinking is that it remains dry with the lack of lift and
this being only the first night of onshore flow. Additionally, no
frost/freeze concerns this time with milder overnight lows.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Global models remain in agreement building an anomalously strong
upper ridge across the eastern third of the country midweek,
shifting it offshore for the second half of the week as a trough
approaches from the Great Lakes. The latter of which will send a
cold front through the area on Friday.
The high shifts off the New England coast Tuesday as deep ridging
begins to amplify over the Central and Eastern US. Low pressure
tracking through the Upper Midwest sends a warm front through the
region and the resultant SW flow begins to advect in a much warmer
air mass. The WAA and onshore flow will help expand cloud cover and
can`t entirely rule out a few rain showers or sprinkles developing
with the increased moisture and weak lift Tuesday night or early
Wednesday, especially for eastern areas.
Global guidance progs H5 near 588dm locally by Wednesday, or nearly
+2 STD. With 925 mb temperatures increasing to between 16C and 18C,
surface temperatures should be able to achieve mid 70s for most both
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, with the potential for the warmest
locales in urban NE NJ to approach or exceed 80F. Given the values,
this looks to be one of the warmest Halloweens on record for the
region with daily record highs possible at multiple sites.
The next chance for a wider rainfall could finally arrive Friday, as
an attendant cold front finally approaches from the west. Timing
still needs to be fully resolved, but 12Z guidance keeps the bulk of
the region dry Thursday night, bringing a round of rain showers
Friday morning. For now, capped PoPs at chance (25-40%). Conditions
look to dry out once again into the weekend as high pressure returns
behind the fropa.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure in place through much of the TAF period. A
backdoor cold front moving southward across the region for
Monday brings a slight shift in the wind direction but no
sensible weather impacts.
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light SW/W flow
becomes light and variable overnight. By Monday morning, flow
becomes light NE before shifting more E by late morning. Flow
may be more SE by early afternoon and remain through the evening
before becoming light and variable again. Winds largely 10kt or
less on Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but chance of MVFR east of the city terminals
for Tuesday night with possible rain showers. S-SE wind gusts 15-20
kt afternoon into early evening.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, but chance of MVFR east of the city terminals
for early Wednesday with possible rain showers. SW wind gusts 15-20
kt possible.
Thursday: VFR initially, but a chance of MVFR Thursday night with
possible rain showers. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt. SW wind gusts 20-25
kt possible.
Friday: Possible MVFR during the day with showers, mainly east of
NYC terminals. Otherwise, becoming VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt day
into early evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions remain below advisory thresholds on all waters
through Monday night as high a pressure ridge near the region
maintains light winds through the period. Winds increase
somewhat thereafter, but conditions should still remain below
advisory criteria through at least Wednesday. Strengthening
southerly flow midweek may build ocean seas toward 5 ft, and
allow wind gusts to exceed 25 kt by Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Given how dry fuels and conditions have been and are expected
to be on Monday, with min RH values between 25 and 35%, a
Special Weather Statement was issued for all land zones to
highlight the continued risk of wildfire spread, should ignition
occur.
Afternoon minimum RH values climb through the next couple of
days, increasing to over 50% for Tuesday. Coupled with light
winds, this should lower the risk of wildfire spread, though dry
conditions are expected to persist into late week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for NYZ067.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...JC/MW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/DR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR