960
FXUS61 KOKX 281456
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1056 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region today, and offshore for
Tuesday and Wednesday allowing a warm frontal passage to occur.
A cold moves across the region on Friday, followed by high
pressure for the weekend. A frontal boundary may impact the
region early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast has been updated mainly for cloud cover over the
next few hours as there will continue to be more clouds than
previously forecast. The rest of the forecast is otherwise
mostly on track.
High pressure strengthens over the area today. Despite the
subsidence, batches of mid and high clouds shifting through
periodically per stlt and models. The NBM was used for temps
with highs close to normal.
Light onshore sely flow tngt as the center of the high sets up
over ME. Some stratus development is modeled for the overnight
period as well. This signal has been pretty consistent for the
last few days now. As a result, stuck close to the NBM for low
temps which seem to be handling this scenario by limiting
the radiational cooling component.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The signal is there in both the NAM and now the GFS for the
potential for some pockets of light rain Tue and Tue ngt before
a warm front clears the area on Wed. Llvl moisture is progged
to pool ahead of the approaching warm front, with stratus
likely thru the period, particularly ern areas. Timeheights
place the moisture around 3000 ft, although the NAM has deeper
saturation and lower cloud bases per usual. The NBM seemed to
have a reasonable cloud fcst, with primarily mostly cloudy skies
thru the period, so it was followed this time with no
adjustments. Weak llvl omega was also evident in the modeling,
so spotty light rain possible assuming the moisture progs are
accurate. Have gone with roughly a 20-40 pop for this scenario.
Temps moderate Tue, and remain mild Tue ngt, with both periods
abv normal.
The warm front comes thru early Wed, ending rain chances and
bringing temps back into the 70s across the entire area. Went a
little abv the NBM due to temps aloft and the likelihood for
good mixing. The limiting factor will be the sly component to
the flow, with the current model consensus pointing to a roughly
220 wind direction, moderating temps for ern areas,
particularly those near the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stuck somewhat close to the NBM through the long term with no
significant changes in the forecast.
High pressure remains east of the region Wednesday night through
Thursday with dry conditions and a south-Southeast flow across the
area. This will result in mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures.
Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s.
The high does drift further east late Thursday and Thursday night.
This will allow a cold front to approach from the west. Expect
clouds to increase Thursday evening and Thursday night. This front
will also bring the next chance of rain, with the best chances after
midnight into Friday morning. Timing still needs to be fully
resolved, but 00z guidance keeps the bulk of the region dry Thursday
night, bringing a round of rain showers Friday morning. For now,
POPs remain capped at chance (25-40%).
Behind the front, high pressure builds back into the region for the
weekend and most likely into early next week. Expect dry conditions
for the weekend. There is a low end chance that frontal boundary
approaches early next week, which may result in some slight chance
POPs early next week, however, confidence remains low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains near the region through the TAF period. A
backdoor cold front will move across the region today.
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light and
variable winds become more easterly by late morning and then SE
early this afternoon. SE winds remain through the evening
before becoming light and variable again tonight. Winds speeds
remain less than 10kt through the TAF period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but chance of MVFR east of the city
terminals for Tuesday night with possible rain showers. S-SE
wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, but chance of MVFR east of the city terminals
for early Wednesday with possible rain showers. SW wind gusts 15-20
kt possible.
Thursday: VFR initially, but a chance of MVFR Thursday night with
possible rain showers. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt. SW wind gusts 20-25
kt possible.
Friday: Possible MVFR during the day with showers, mainly east of
NYC terminals. Otherwise, becoming VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt day
into early evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and waves blw sca lvls today with high pres building in.
Mrgnl sca conditions possible Tue and Wed both ahead of and
behind a warm front.
Strengthening southerly winds may build ocean seas toward 5 ft,
and allow wind gusts to exceed 25 kt by Thursday. The chance of
SCA conditions then continue into Friday and possibly the early
part of Saturday with a strong NW flow behind a cold frontal
passage.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Given how dry fuels and conditions have been and are expected
to be today, with min RH values between 25 and 35%, a Special
Weather Statement was issued for all CT and NJ land zones to
highlight the continued risk of wildfire spread, should ignition
occur.
Afternoon minimum RH values climb to over 50% for Tuesday.
Coupled with light winds, this should lower the risk of wildfire
spread, though mainly dry conditions are expected to persist
into late week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...BC/JMC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC