287
FXUS61 KOKX 290225
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1025 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over New England shifts offshore overnight into
Tuesday, allowing a warm front to pass through the Northeast
during Tuesday night. High pressure otherwise remains over the
Western Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday before a cold front
passage on Friday. High pressure then returns for the upcoming
weekend into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Stratus has begun to develop along coast of Connecticut from
New Haven to Groton as a light southeast flow develops. Updated
temperatures and dew points, with large range across the region
and fluctuations with winds light to southeast.
High pressure centered over New England will shift towards the
coast with a light SE flow in the low levels, transporting some
moisture our way along a weak inverted trough. The moisture will
be shallow, confined mainly below 850mb with little lift. Still
looks like the combination of moisture and lift through at
least tonight is not enough for rainfall, so will continue with
a dry forecast. There could be patchy frost in Orange County
with temps falling into the mid 30s, but not widespread enough
for an advisory. Low temps otherwise in the 40s for most of the
area, and around 50 for NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture will continue to pool along the trough through Tuesday,
with more of an impact over the eastern half of the forecast area.
Even so, the moisture remains fairly shallow, but isentropic lift
generally increases as the day wears on. Will therefore keep a
slight chance/chance of light rain/drizzle focused more towards the
eastern half of the area with better overall chances in the
afternoon. High temperatures averaging around 5 degrees above normal
in the lower and middle 60s.
A warm front approaches and passes through during Tuesday night.
This will bring deeper moisture and stronger lift, but the
combination of both ingredients are still lacking to warrant any
PoPs higher than chance. The rainfall threat then exits east near
daybreak. Mild low temperatures in the 50s with the help of cloud
cover and warm air advection.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Two main themes in the long term will be unseasonably warm
weather Wednesday through Friday and the continued dry
conditions into early November.
A warm front will continue pushing well north and east of the
area Wednesday morning. This is in response to an anomalously
strong ridge building over the eastern seaboard. The ridge
slowly works offshore Wednesday night before gradually weakening
Thursday. The ridging will help support another unseasonably
warm air mass over the Tri-State Wednesday and Thursday. Highs
on Wednesday will reach the 70s for much of the area, warmest
across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley where upper 70s are
possible. Even warmer air advects into the area on Thursday with
stronger southwest flow as the ridging pushes offshore. NBM
deterministic temperatures on Thursday look low and have blended
in the NBM 90th percentile, which seem more reasonable given
the unseasonably warm pattern. Highs should be around 80 degrees
in NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley with middle to upper 70s
elsewhere. The east end of Long Island should stay in the lower
70s. See climate section below as record highs are possible.
The next northern stream shortwave trough approaches Thursday
night, sending a cold front towards the area. The latest model
consensus has the front moving through on Friday, probably late
morning into early afternoon. The amplitude of the trough varies
between the deterministic and ensemble guidance. There is a
chance for light measurable rain, mainly early Friday. Not
enough confidence to go with PoPs higher than 40 percent as
there is enough guidance that remains mostly dry. Temperatures
will still be unseasonably warm on Friday, but not as warm as
Wednesday and Thursday. Highs look to reach the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees.
The upper trough and cold front move offshore Friday night with
ridging returning at the surface and aloft. Another strong
ridge continues to be signaled over the southeast stretching
into the northeast. The ridge could linger into early next week
keeping conditions dry. Temperatures will be near seasonable
levels this weekend before trending above normal next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure centered over New England and extending to the
Carolina coast drifts offshore tonight into Tuesday. A warm
front approaches to the southwest late Tuesday as an offshore
trough develops.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. MVFR
stratus, around 2500 feet, was developing along the coast of
Connecticut from New Haven to Groton. And, broken MVFR ceilings
are possible at KGON after 04Z. There also is a chance for MVFR
stratus and light rain and drizzle developing Tuesday
afternoon, mainly east of NYC terminals.
Winds will be light SE to light and variable into early Tuesday
morning, then increase to around 10 kt, becoming south along the
coast. Occasional gusts are possible late morning into to
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected through much of the forecast.
Amendments possible late Tuesday afternoon if MVFR stratus
develops. Occasional gusts to around 15 kt possible Tuesday.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR with light rain or
drizzle.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, but chance of MVFR east of the city terminals
for early Wednesday with possible light rain.
Thursday: VFR initially, but a chance of MVFR late Thursday night
with possible rain showers. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Friday: Possible MVFR with showers. Improving conditions, VFR
becoming more probable at night. SW-W wind gusts 15-20
kt for the day. Gusts gradually diminish in the evening. Winds
become more NW at night.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Wind gusts were a few knots lower than forecast, with winds
really not gusty in a light southeast flow.
Winds will be light tonight, then increase through Tuesday.
Conditions on all waters should remain below advisory criteria
through the daytime. Winds probably peak Tuesday evening with
gusts to 25kt possible on the ocean waters east of Fire Island
Inlet. Seas may also increase over 5 ft during Tuesday night as
well. With this being a 3rd period low-end advisory event, and
with collaboration with WFO BOX, will hold off on issuing a SCA
for the time being and allow subsequent shifts see if trends
support a SCA issuance.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels on Wednesday. Winds
increase and seas build on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold
front. SCA conditions are possible Thursday into Thursday night,
especially on the ocean. Elevated seas may linger on Friday, but
conditions should then largely remain below SCA levels into
Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon minimum RH values climb to over 50% for Tuesday.
Coupled with relatively light winds, this should lower the risk
of wildfire spread, though mainly dry conditions are expected to
persist into late week. A Special Weather Statement has been
issued for all of southern Connecticut for Tuesday to highlight
the continued risk of wildfire spread, should ignition occur.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible on Thursday. Here are the
current records for October 31st.
EWR: 82/1946
BDR: 75/2004
NYC: 81/1946
LGA: 81/1946
JFK: 75/1950
ISP: 73/2004
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DS/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
CLIMATE...