927
FXUS61 KOKX 291139
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
739 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves off the New England coast today, allowing a
warm front to lift through the region tonight. High pressure
remains over the Western Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday before a
cold front moves through on Friday. High pressure returns for
the weekend. A frontal boundary may impact the region early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over New England shifts off the coast
today and a warm front lifts through the region.
Wide range in temperatures early this morning with light
onshore flow moistening the low levels and allowing a stratus
deck to expand and push inland. Conditions remain dry for the
moment, but spotty drizzle or light rain will gradually become
more possible as the day progresses, especially east of the
Hudson River and aligned with the moisture axis. Any QPF thru
this evening will be light, under a tenth of an inch, with many
remaining entirely dry.
Shortwave energy passing through this evening should help
develop and expand additional rain showers into tonight, mainly
across the interior. Any rain should largely end by 6Z based on
latest CAMs, but patchy fog may develop in its wake overnight.
After an afternoon in the 60s, temperatures remain mild into
Wednesday morning, with lows generally in the upper 40s and 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Anomalously strong ridging amplifies over the region midweek,
setting up an unusually warm end to the month.
As the warm front exits to the north early Wednesday, a modest SW
flow develops and helps advect in a much warmer air mass compared
to the start of the week. Global guidance progs H5 near 588dm
locally by Wednesday, or nearly +2 STD. With 925 mb temperatures
increasing to between 16C and 18C, surface temperatures should
be able to achieve the mid 70s for most both Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon, with the potential for the warmest locales
in urban NE NJ to approach or exceed 80F. Given these expected
values, this looks to be one of the warmest Halloweens on record
for the region, with daily records in jeopardy at several sites.
See the Climate section farther down for additional detail.
Both days should feature plenty of sunshine, perhaps filtered
through some building high cirrus along the northern periphery
of the ridge.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stuck somewhat close to the NBM through the long term with no
significant changes in the forecast.
High pressure drifts further east Thursday night, allowing a cold
front to approach from the west. Expect clouds to continue to
increase Thursday evening and Thursday night. This front will also
bring the next chance of rain, with the best chances after midnight
into Friday morning. For now, POPs remain capped at chance (25-40%).
Behind the front, high pressure builds back into the region for the
weekend and most likely into early next week. Expect dry conditions
for the weekend. Another frontal boundary may approaches early next
week, which could result in some slight chance POPs early next week.
Confidence at this time remains low.
Temperatures will remain at or above seasonable levels through the
long term period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure centered over New England and extending to the
Carolina coast drifts offshore today. A warm front approaches to the
southwest late as an offshore trough develops.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, however
periods of MVFR are possible at times. MVFR stratus, around
2500-3000 feet, was reported along portions of coast
Connecticut and also across eastern Long Island. Broken MVFR
ceilings are possible early this morning. There is a better
chance for MVFR stratus and light rain and/or drizzle
developing this afternoon, mainly east of NYC terminals and
continuing through the first part of tonight. Any lower cigs
should improve after 06z, except KGON, where these lower
conditions continue a bit longer.
Winds will be light SE to light and variable this morning, then
increase to around 10 kt, becoming south along the coast. Occasional
gusts are possible late morning into to afternoon. Winds become
light once again tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected through much of the forecast.
Amendments will be possible late this afternoon if MVFR stratus
develops. Occasional gusts to around 15 kt possible today.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, but chance of MVFR at KGON early
Wednesday with possible light rain.
Thursday: VFR initially, but a chance of MVFR late Thursday night
with possible rain showers. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Friday: Possible MVFR with showers. Improving conditions, VFR
becoming more probable at night. SW-W wind gusts 15-20 kt for the
day. Gusts gradually diminish in the evening. Winds become more NW
at night.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Strengthening southerly flow will gust toward 25 kt on ocean
waters east of Fire Island Inlet by late this afternoon. Seas
here also build to 5 or 6 ft during this time. Winds lower
tonight, but elevated seas likely linger into Wednesday. Small
Craft Advisory was hoisted for these ocean waters from 18Z this
afternoon thru 15Z Wed.
On all other waters, occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible late
today, but conditions largely remain below SCA criteria thru
Thursday.
SCA conditions are possible Thursday night, especially on the ocean.
Elevated seas may linger on Friday, but conditions should then
largely remain below SCA levels into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon minimum RH values climb to over 50% today. Coupled
with relatively light winds, this should lower the risk of
wildfire spread, though mainly dry conditions are expected to
persist into late week.
A Special Weather Statement continues for southern Connecticut
to highlight existing fires and the continued risk of spread.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible on Thursday. Here are the
current records for October 31st.
EWR: 82/1946
BDR: 75/2004
NYC: 81/1946
LGA: 81/1946
JFK: 75/1950
ISP: 73/2004
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DR
CLIMATE...