609
FXUS61 KOKX 291818
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
218 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves off the New England coast today, allowing a
warm front to lift through the region tonight. High pressure
remains over the Western Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday before a
cold front moves through on Friday. High pressure returns for
the weekend. A frontal boundary may impact the region early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak low-level moisture convergence in close proximity to the
Hudson River, from NYC north into the Lower Hudson Valley,
producing some sprinkles. This activity is expected to spread
east during the day per latest CAMs. Regardless, spotty and
light.
Otherwise, surface high pressure over New England shifts off
the coast today and a warm front lifts through the region.
Shortwave energy passing through this evening should help
develop and expand additional rain showers into tonight, mainly
across the interior. Any rain should largely end by 6Z based on
latest CAMs, but patchy fog may develop in its wake overnight.
After an afternoon in the 60s, temperatures remain mild into
Wednesday morning, with lows generally in the upper 40s and 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Anomalously strong ridging amplifies over the region midweek,
setting up an unusually warm end to the month.
As the warm front exits to the north early Wednesday, a modest SW
flow develops and helps advect in a much warmer air mass compared
to the start of the week. Global guidance progs H5 near 588dm
locally by Wednesday, or nearly +2 STD. With 925 mb temperatures
increasing to between 16C and 18C, surface temperatures should
be able to achieve the mid 70s for most both Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon, with the potential for the warmest locales
in urban NE NJ to approach or exceed 80F. Given these expected
values, this looks to be one of the warmest Halloweens on record
for the region, with daily records in jeopardy at several sites.
See the Climate section farther down for additional detail.
Both days should feature plenty of sunshine, perhaps filtered
through some building high cirrus along the northern periphery
of the ridge.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stuck somewhat close to the NBM through the long term with no
significant changes in the forecast.
High pressure drifts further east Thursday night, allowing a cold
front to approach from the west. Expect clouds to continue to
increase Thursday evening and Thursday night. This front will also
bring the next chance of rain, with the best chances after midnight
into Friday morning. For now, POPs remain capped at chance (25-40%).
Behind the front, high pressure builds back into the region for the
weekend and most likely into early next week. Expect dry conditions
for the weekend. Another frontal boundary may approaches early next
week, which could result in some slight chance POPs early next week.
Confidence at this time remains low.
Temperatures will remain at or above seasonable levels through the
long term period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front passes through tonight. High pressure follows for
Wednesday.
Generally MVFR/VFR through the evening hours with improving
conditions late tonight. Showers will be possible, but mainly
north of the city terminals.
SE winds 10-15kt. Gusts around 20kt mainly for the coastal
terminals. Winds becoming lighter tonight, eventually shifting
SW.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts might be only occasional this afternoon. VFR could prevail
for a longer duration of time than implied by the TAFs during
the rest of this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday PM: VFR
Thursday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Friday: Most VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers. W wind gusts
around 25kt, bcmg NW and diminishing at night.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Strengthening southerly flow will gust toward 25 kt on ocean
waters east of Fire Island Inlet by late this afternoon. Seas
here also build to 5 or 6 ft during this time. Winds lower
tonight, but elevated seas likely linger into Wednesday. Small
Craft Advisory was hoisted for these ocean waters from 18Z this
afternoon thru 15Z Wed.
On all other waters, occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible late
today, but conditions largely remain below SCA criteria thru
Thursday.
SCA conditions are possible Thursday night, especially on the ocean.
Elevated seas may linger on Friday, but conditions should then
largely remain below SCA levels into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon minimum RH values climb to over 50% today. Coupled
with relatively light winds, this should lower the risk of
wildfire spread, though mainly dry conditions are expected to
persist into late week.
A Special Weather Statement continues for southern Connecticut
to highlight existing fires and the continued risk of spread.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible on Thursday. Here are the
current records for October 31st.
EWR: 82/1946
BDR: 75/2004
NYC: 81/1946
LGA: 81/1946
JFK: 75/1950
ISP: 73/2004
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
AVIATION...JC