657
FXUS61 KOKX 291949
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
349 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will lift across the area tonight. This will then
place the area between high pressure offshore and an approaching
cold front from the west. The cold front nears the area
Thursday night and moves through on Friday. High pressure
returns for the weekend. Another frontal boundary may be in the
vicinity early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A warm front will lift across the area tonight with possible
sprinkles and/or a shower with the primary forcing being low-
level warm advection. The better forcing will reside to the
north across update NY and central/northern New England. Some of
this may clip southeast CT with a better chance for seeing some
rain. That being the case, even those locations should be under
a tenth of an inch of rainfall with a few hundredths possible
elsewhere. The warm front clears far eastern LI and SE CT before
daybreak. S-SE winds the first half of the night may gusts up
to 20 kt along the coast, associated with a southerly low-level
jet preceding the warm front. Winds will then diminish and
become SW behind the warm front. Patchy fog will be a possibility,
especially inland as winds diminish and clear the second half
of the night.

For lows tonight, with an anomalously warm airmass moving into
the region from the SW, cloud cover, and a southerly flow, went
above MOS and NBM deterministic by a few degrees. Lows are
forecast to range from around 50 well north and west of NYC, to
the mid 50s at the coast. This about 10 degrees above normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Anomalously warm heights (+2SD) associated with an upper high
building along the eastern seaboard on Wednesday and then
offshore on Thursday, will allow a deep-layered SW flow to bring
potential record warmth into the area. The warmest day will
come on Thursday as the subsidence inversion weakens across the
area, thus allow deeper mixing. 85h temps get to around 14C.
Highs are forecast to generally be in the 70s for Wednesday with
the possible exception of the immediate south shore of LI and
the forks region. For Thursday, leaned toward the NBM 90th
percentile, although box and whisker plots are showing small
difference between this, the deterministic and median (50th).
Temperatures by Thursday will be about 15 to 20 degrees above
normal. It remains dry during this time.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Mainly dry conditions will continue across the Tri-State to start
November.

Upper ridging will continue to shift to the southeast coast Thursday
night in response to an approaching northern stream shortwave. The
shortwave then quickly passes across the northeast on Friday,
sending a cold front through the area. The modeling is showing good
overall agreement that the majority of the energy and lift with the
shortwave passes to our north, which will limit potential for showers
with the front. The most likely timing for the cold front passage
appears to be as early as late Friday morning NW of NYC and early
afternoon elsewhere. There is still a chance for a shower with the
front, but no significant rainfall is expected and it is possible
many areas remain dry. Have continued to cap PoPs at 30-40 percent.
The slower timing of the front will likely lead to another
unseasonably warm day on Friday. The model consensus has trended up
with low to mid 70s now forecast. This is supported by westerly flow
ahead of the front and then modest downsloping immediately behind
the front Friday afternoon.

Much drier and cooler air moves in for Friday night as high pressure
builds over the region, remaining in control for the upcoming
weekend. Dry and seasonable conditions are forecast with highs
reaching the upper 50s Saturday and upper 50s to around 60 on
Sunday. Good radiational cooling conditions are possible Saturday
night with mostly clear skies and light winds. This could lead to
temperatures falling close to freezing inland and the upper 30s to
low 40s elsewhere.

The large scale pattern for early next week will be similar to what
has been occurring over the last few weeks. Large upper level
ridging will build along the eastern seaboard with a deep trough out
west. Temperatures will trend back above normal early next week.
There will likely be a frontal boundary in the vicinity as well, but
latest trends are indicating this may end up to our north with the
ridging aloft. Will hold onto a slight chance PoP, similar to the
NBM deterministic, since it is still about a week out.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A warm front passes through tonight. High pressure follows for
Wednesday.

Mostly VFR before 00z, then generally MVFR/VFR through the evening
hours with improving conditions late tonight. Showers will be
possible, but mainly north of the city terminals.

SE winds 10-15kt. Gusts around 20kt mainly for the coastal
terminals. Winds becoming lighter tonight, eventually shifting
SW.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

End time of prevailing gusts could be off by 1-2 hours. TEMPO MVFR
possible before 00z. Chance that prevailing MVFR does not occur this
evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday PM: VFR

Thursday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Friday: Most VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers. W wind gusts
around 25kt, bcmg NW and diminishing at night.

Saturday and Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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A strengthening southerly flow through this evening will allow
for gusts to around 25 kt with seas building to 3 to 6 ft on the
ocean waters. Elsewhere, marginal SCA gusts are possible for a
few hours this evening. Winds and seas subside below SCA
overnight into Wednesday morning. SW winds during this time
will begin to ramp back up on Thursday ahead of an approaching
cold front. SCA conditions are likely Thursday night into
Friday, especially on the ocean. Winds weaken and seas subside
Friday night as high pressure builds over the northeast. This
will lead to below SCA conditions for the upcoming weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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The next couple of days expect minimum RH values 45 to 55
percent with SW winds 10 to 15 mph. There is the potential for
SW gusts 15-20 mph on Thursday.

A Special Weather Statement continues for southern Connecticut
to highlight existing fires and the continued risk of spread.
This will be issued later this evening for Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible on Thursday. Here are the
current records for October 31st.

EWR: 82/1946
BDR: 75/2004
NYC: 81/1946
LGA: 81/1946
JFK: 75/1950
ISP: 73/2004

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DS/DW
FIRE WEATHER...//
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
CLIMATE...//