853
FXUS61 KOKX 300544
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
144 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will lift across the area overnight into Wednesday.
This will then place the area between high pressure offshore
and an approaching cold front from the west. The cold front
nears the area Thursday night and moves through on Friday. High
pressure returns for the weekend. Another frontal boundary may
be in the vicinity early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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A warm front will lift across the area overnight, with sprinkles
and a few showers. The better forcing will reside to the north
across update NY and central/northern New England. Some of this
may clip southeast CT with a better chance for seeing some rain.
That being the case, even those locations should be under a
tenth of an inch of rainfall with a few hundredths possible
elsewhere. The warm front clears far eastern LI and SE CT before
daybreak. S-SE winds the first half of the night may gusts up
to 20 kt along the coast, associated with a southerly low-level
jet preceding the warm front. Winds will then diminish and
become SW behind the warm front. Patchy fog will be a
possibility, especially inland as winds diminish and clear the
second half of the night.

For lows tonight, with an anomalously warm airmass moving into
the region from the SW, cloud cover, and a southerly flow, went
above MOS and NBM deterministic by a few degrees. Lows are
forecast to range from around 50 well north and west of NYC, to
the mid 50s at the coast. This about 10 degrees above normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Anomalously warm heights (+2SD) associated with an upper high
building along the eastern seaboard on Wednesday and then
offshore on Thursday, will allow a deep-layered SW flow to bring
potential record warmth into the area. The warmest day will
come on Thursday as the subsidence inversion weakens across the
area, thus allow deeper mixing. 85h temps get to around 14C.
Highs are forecast to generally be in the 70s for Wednesday with
the possible exception of the immediate south shore of LI and
the forks region. For Thursday, leaned toward the NBM 90th
percentile, although box and whisker plots are showing small
difference between this, the deterministic and median (50th).
Temperatures by Thursday will be about 15 to 20 degrees above
normal. It remains dry during this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly dry conditions will continue across the Tri-State to
start November.

Upper ridging will continue to shift to the southeast coast
Thursday night in response to an approaching northern stream
shortwave. The shortwave then quickly passes across the
northeast on Friday, sending a cold front through the area. The
modeling is showing good overall agreement that the majority of
the energy and lift with the shortwave passes to our north,
which will limit potential for showers with the front. The most
likely timing for the cold front passage appears to be as early
as late Friday morning NW of NYC and early afternoon elsewhere.
There is still a chance for a shower with the front, but no
significant rainfall is expected and it is possible many areas
remain dry. Have continued to cap PoPs at 30-40 percent. The
slower timing of the front will likely lead to another
unseasonably warm day on Friday. The model consensus has trended
up with low to mid 70s now forecast. This is supported by
westerly flow ahead of the front and then modest downsloping
immediately behind the front Friday afternoon.

Much drier and cooler air moves in for Friday night as high
pressure builds over the region, remaining in control for the
upcoming weekend. Dry and seasonable conditions are forecast
with highs reaching the upper 50s Saturday and upper 50s to
around 60 on Sunday. Good radiational cooling conditions are
possible Saturday night with mostly clear skies and light winds.
This could lead to temperatures falling close to freezing
inland and the upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere.

The large scale pattern for early next week will be similar to
what has been occurring over the last few weeks. Large upper
level ridging will build along the eastern seaboard with a deep
trough out west. Temperatures will trend back above normal early
next week. There will likely be a frontal boundary in the
vicinity as well, but latest trends are indicating this may end
up to our north with the ridging aloft. Will hold onto a slight
chance PoP, similar to the NBM deterministic, since it is still
about a week out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A warm front passes through the region early this morning followed
by high pressure.

Most of the terminals are either VFR or MVFR with some pockets
of IFR. In addition there are some light showers east NYC.
Conditions are expected to gradually improve to VFR through
08z-12z. Timing may be off by an hour or two in some spots.
Once conditions improve to VFR, expect VFR through the day
Wednesday into Wednesday night as high pressure builds into the
area.

SE winds 10-15kt. Winds become lighter and shift to the south
then southwest through 07-08Z, as the warm front passes through
the terminals. Winds remain SW today with occasional gusts to
around 15kt during the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of amendments for MVFR ceilings through 08Z.
Occasional gusts to around 15kt possible this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: VFR

Thursday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Friday: Mainly FR. Chance of MVFR and showers. W wind gusts
around 25kt, bcmg NW and diminishing at night.

Saturday and Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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A strengthening southerly flow through this evening will allow
for gusts to around 25 kt with seas building to 3 to 6 ft on the
ocean waters. Elsewhere, marginal SCA gusts are possible for a
few hours this evening. Winds and seas subside below SCA
overnight into Wednesday morning. SW winds during this time will
begin to ramp back up on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold
front. SCA conditions are likely Thursday night into Friday,
especially on the ocean. Winds weaken and seas subside Friday
night as high pressure builds over the northeast. This will lead
to below SCA conditions for the upcoming weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The next couple of days expect minimum RH values 45 to 55
percent with SW winds 10 to 15 mph. There is the potential for
SW gusts 15-20 mph on Thursday.

A Special Weather Statement has been issued for southern
Connecticut to highlight existing fires and the continued risk
of spread Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible on Thursday. Here are the
current records for October 31st.

EWR: 82/1946
BDR: 75/2004
NYC: 81/1946
LGA: 81/1946
JFK: 75/1950
ISP: 73/2004

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350-
     353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DR/DS/MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...DS/MET/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
CLIMATE...