792
FXUS61 KOKX 300813
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
413 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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As a warm front lifts north and east of the region, high pressure
remains centered just off the East Coast through Thursday. A
cold front approaches from the west Thursday night, moving across
the region on Friday, followed by high pressure for the weekend.
A frontal boundary may impact the region early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The warm front that brought a return to rain to parts of the
region continues to exit the region early this morning, pushing
through far eastern LI and SE CT at 8Z. With the clearing behind
it, a bit of patchy fog has been able to develop in some
locales, but otherwise, a dry and mild start for late October,
with temperatures mainly in the 50s and 60s.
As the front exits, a modest SW flow is developing behind it,
and this will help advect in a much warmer air mass compared to
the start of the week. H5 climbs to nearly 590dm as deep ridging
amplifies over the region, or nearly +2 STD. Soundings prog
925 mb temperatures around 18C locally, which should yield low
to mid 70s for much of the region this afternoon, or 10 to 15
degrees above normal. Filtered sunshine through a cirrus deck
can be expected this afternoon.
Temperatures remain mild overnight once again, with lows mainly
in the 50s, or near 60 around NYC.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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The warmth continues to close the month on Thursday. Ridge axis
shifts east of the region as a shortwave pushes through the
northern Great Lakes. An associated cold front begins to approach
from the west late in the day, but sprawling surface high
pressure centered off the Carolina coast remains in control
during the day.
The subsidence inversion weakens across the area and should allow
a bit deeper mixing relative to Wednesday, nudging afternoon
highs up several degrees. Away from the immediate shoreline,
temperatures climb into the 70s, and perhaps even lower 80s in
NE NJ and the LoHud Valley. Given these expected values, up to
20 degrees above normal, this appears to be one of the warmest
Halloweens on record for the region, with daily records in
jeopardy at several sites. See the Climate section farther down
for additional detail.
Cloud cover begins to thicken and lower Thursday night ahead of
the approaching cold front, and not entirely out of the question
far western areas see rain showers move in early Friday morning.
The trend in guidance has been slower and drier, and it`s also
possible that the frontal passage occurs dry for at least parts
of the region, or is delayed until later Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Stuck somewhat close to the NBM through the long term with no
significant changes in the forecast.
A cold front will continue to move across the region during the day
Friday, with just some chance POPS. Some of the newer 00z forecast
guidance is even hinting that the front may come through dry in some
locations. Will continue to cap POPs at chance (25-40%).
Behind the front, high pressure builds back into the region for the
weekend and most likely into early next week. Expect dry conditions
for the weekend. Another frontal boundary may approaches early next
week, which could result in some slight chance POPs early next week.
Confidence at this time remains low.
Temperatures will remain at or above seasonable levels through the
long term period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A warm front passes through the region early this morning followed
by high pressure.
Most of the terminals are either VFR or MVFR with some pockets of
IFR. In addition there are some light showers east NYC. Conditions
are expected to gradually improve to VFR through 08z-12z. Timing may
be off by an hour or two in some spots. Once conditions improve to
VFR, expect VFR through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night as
high pressure builds into the area.
SE winds 10-15kt. Winds become lighter and shift to the south then
southwest through 07-08Z, as the warm front passes through the
terminals. Winds remain SW today with occasional gusts to around
15kt during the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance of amendments for MVFR ceilings. Occasional gusts to
around 15kt possible this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: VFR
Thursday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Friday: Mainly FR. Chance of MVFR and showers. W wind gusts around
25kt, bcmg NW and diminishing at night.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Small Craft Advisory remains in place this morning for ocean
waters east of Fire Island Inlet due to lingering seas between 5
and 7 ft. These subside by early afternoon, and conditions are
then expected to remain below advisory criteria on all waters
tonight and much of the day Thursday.
Increasing SW flow Thursday ahead of a cold front will bring a
return to SCA conditions to at least the ocean waters Thursday
evening. Wind gusts up to 30 kt, and seas between 5 and 7 ft can
be expected. SCA conditions continue into Friday, especially on
the ocean. Winds weaken and seas subside Friday night as high
pressure builds over the northeast. This will lead to sub-SCA
conditions for the upcoming weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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The next couple of days expect minimum RH values 45 to 55 percent
with SW winds 10 to 15 mph.
A Special Weather Statement remains in place today for southern
Connecticut to highlight existing fires and the continued risk
of spread.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible on Thursday. Here are the
current records for October 31st.
EWR: 82/1946
BDR: 75/2004
NYC: 81/1946
LGA: 81/1946
JFK: 75/1950
ISP: 73/2004
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350-
353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DR
CLIMATE...