okx-afd on 2024-10-30

174
FXUS61 KOKX 301933
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
333 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure remains centered just off the East Coast through
Thursday. A cold front moves across the region on Friday, followed
by high pressure for the weekend. A warm front may be in the
vicinity early next week ahead of another cold front by mid week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Deep ridging remains over the eastern CONUS, with the axis passing
to our east this evening. Some high clouds will be around through
the night, although there is some uncertainty in how thick they will
be. Current satellite shows just very thin cirrus. Went just a
bit cooler than the NBM for now with the possibility of the
normal cool spots being able to take advantage of some
radiational cooling.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --The warming trend continues on Thursday. The ridge shifts further
east and a shortwave approaches from the west. The deep W/SW flow
will help temperatures reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in NYC,
northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and interior CT. Closer to the
coast, temperatures likely top out in the low to mid 70s with the
influence from the cooler waters. Confidence is relatively high in
these temperatures as the spread between the NBM 10th and 90th
percentiles is very small (only about 3-4 degrees). These forecast
temperatures right around the current records for 10/31. See Climate
section below.

A cold front approaches Thursday night, but won`t pass through until
Friday. Light rain showers are possible ahead of the front very
early Friday morning. Winds should pick up ahead of the frontal
passage. 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Mainly dry conditions will continue across the Tri-State to start
November 2024.

*Key Points*

*A cold front will move across the area on Friday with just a small
chance of a shower in the morning.

*Seasonable temperatures are expected this weekend with high
pressure in control.

*A warming trend commences early next week with potential of a warm
front in the vicinity. There are low rain chances during this time
frame.

Another unseasonably warm day is anticipated on Friday. A cold
front will be moving across the region, mostly likely late morning
NW of the NYC metro and early afternoon elsewhere.
However, winds becoming westerly along with a drying downslope flow
will give a boost to temperatures. Highs look to rise well into the
70s across the region. RH values will be dropping in the afternoon
behind the front along with gusty W winds, 20-30 mph with some fire
wx concerns, especially for NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. This
is where it will be warmest and there will be enough time for the RH
to drop in the afternoon behind the front. See fire weather section
below.

Much drier and cooler air moves in for Friday night as high pressure
builds over the region, remaining in control for the upcoming
weekend. Dry and seasonable conditions are forecast with highs
reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees for both Saturday and
Sunday. Good radiational cooling conditions are possible Saturday
night with mostly clear skies and light winds. This could lead to
temperatures falling close to freezing inland and the upper 30s to
low 40s elsewhere.

Another strong ridge builds over the southeast this weekend and
should amplify towards the north early next week in response to a
deep trough across the west. The ridge axis may build to our west
allowing for slightly lower heights over the northeast. A frontal
boundary, likely a warm front, should be in the vicinity Monday and
Tuesday. The guidance varies with its position with it being draped
over the area or to our north. The front to the north would lead to
much warmer conditions and little chance for rain. The front draped
over the area would be a bit cooler, but still above normal, with at
least a chance of showers. Have followed the NBM deterministic,
which yields about a 30 percent chance for showers Monday and
Tuesday with temperatures trending warmer Monday, and then well into
the 60s on Tuesday. By mid week, the area should be well above
normal ahead of an approaching cold front.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pres remains centered S of the region thru Thu.

VFR through the TAF period.

SW winds thru Thu with speeds generally aob 10kt. Winds will be
backed closer to the S at times, particularly at the S coasts.
Strongest winds at the S coastal terminals. Ocnl gusts to around
15kt possible this aftn, then again aft 16Z Thu.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts to around 15kt possible thru 00Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Rest of Thursday: VFR. SW wind gusts around 15kt at times.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR and showers. W wind becoming
NW with gusts around 25kt thru 00Z. Decreasing winds overnight.

Saturday - Sunday: VFR.

Monday: MVFR or lower possible with rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the eastern two ocean
zones for Thursday night. SW wind gusts will likely reach 25 to 30
knots and seas likely build to 6 to 7 feet. SCA conditions
likely continue on Friday as a cold front passes across the
waters. Ocean seas will remain elevated Friday night, but should
subside below 5 ft by Saturday morning. High pressure building
over the waters this weekend will lead to winds and seas below
SCA levels, which should continue into next Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --A Special Weather Statement remains in place through the end of
today for southern Connecticut to highlight existing fires and the
continued risk of spread. The Special Weather Statement will be
reissued this evening.

A cold front moves through the area on late Friday morning into
early Friday afternoon. W winds increase behind the front allowing
for RH values to drop in the afternoon. Winds may gust 25 to 30 mph
in the afternoon with RH values between 30 and 40 percent across NE
NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of the
forecast.-- End Changed Discussion --

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible on Thursday. Here are the
current records for October 31st.

EWR: 82/1946
BDR: 75/2004
NYC: 81/1946
LGA: 81/1946
JFK: 75/1950
ISP: 73/2004

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ350-353.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT
CLIMATE...