136
FXUS61 KOKX 311128
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
728 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered over the Western Atlantic today
ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. The front moves
through on Friday. High pressure returns over the area Saturday
and Sunday, drifts east Sunday night into Monday as a warm front
approaches to the southwest. The warm front moves northeast
Tuesday with a cold front passing through Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A bit of patchy fog early this morning, mainly around the river
valleys. Otherwise, a mild start with temperatures in the 50s
and 60s.
The late season warmth continues today, likely setting up one
of the warmest Halloweens on record locally. Amplified ridge
axis over the region, with 500 mb heights near 590 dm, shifts
east today, while surface high pressure remains centered off the
Mid Atlantic coast. A cold front approaches late, eventually
tracking through the area on Friday.
Soundings prog 925 mb temperatures around 18 or 19C this afternoon,
and with a bit deeper mixing than on Wednesday, should yield highs
into the mid to upper 70s away from the immediate shoreline, and
lower 80s for NYC and portions of the LoHud Valley. With these
values, nearly 20 degrees above normal, daily records are in
jeopardy at several sites. See Climate section farther down for
additional detail.
Shortwave riding over the ridge cuts through the Upper Great
Lakes and sends a cold front our way tonight, but won`t pass
through until Friday. Canopy of high clouds streaming around the
ridge begins to thicken and lower this evening ahead of the
advancing front from the west. Not entirely out of the question
far western locales could see a few spotty rain showers move in
ahead of daybreak Friday, but more likely holds off until later
in the morning or remains dry entirely. Winds begin to pick up
ahead of the frontal passage by late evening, and with thickening
cloud cover, should limit cooling and keep much of the area in
the 60s overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front continues its approach in the morning, with an overcast
start to the day. Timing of the front has slowed over the past day
or two, which should allow another unseasonably warm day to start
the new month.
Hi res CAMs aren`t enthused with a widespread rainfall from the
fropa. Instead, spotty rain showers are more likely along and ahead
of the boundary, generally in the morning hours. Latest guidance
indicates the actual frontal passage occurs late morning NW of the
NYC metro and early afternoon along the coast.
BL mixes above 850 mb behind the front, and should allow afternoon
temperatures to once again climb into the 70s as the cooler air
mass is slow to arrive. Increasing winds with and behind the front
also sets up a blustery afternoon, gusts up to 30 mph likely.
Given the antecedent dry conditions, and falling RH values, fire
weather concerns may return once again by late day, at least
for parts of the area. See Fire Weather section farther down for
additional detail.
The drier and cooler air moves in for Friday night as high
pressure builds over the region. Winds lighten and skies clear
out overnight, allowing most to fall into the 30s and 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*Key Points*
*Seasonable temperatures are expected Saturday through Monday with
high pressure in control.
*A warming trend commences Monday night through Wednesday as a warm
front moves through the region. There is a chance of showers Monday
and Monday night.
Surface high pressure builds over the region Saturday and remains
Sunday, as a sub tropical ridge builds over the eastern portion of
the country through Monday. A warm front approaches Sunday night and
moves slowly northward as the amplifying ridge axis into the area
Monday night. With the ridge axis moving east Tuesday the warm front
is expected to lift through the region.
There will be increasing low level isentropic lift along with upper
level support, and there will be a chance of showers. With little to
no CAPE and no instability convection is not expected. Have
increased probabilities slightly with the warm front passage. The
area then becomes warm sectored and dry for awhile until the
approach of a cold front that likely moves through Wednesday,
possibly Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
Temperatures will be near seasonal levels Saturday through Monday.
And then with the passage of the warm front temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday may be as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal, and used
a blend of the 50th and 75th percentiles for highs and low. However,
at this time records are not expected.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast remains
today, then drifts east as a cold front approaches, and moves
through Friday.
VFR through the TAF period, low chance of MVFR in showers at
KSWF, KTEB, and KHPN toward 12Z Saturday.
Generally W/SW winds through the period, possibly becoming more
southerly along the coast this afternoon, speeds increasing to
10-12kt during today. Gusts of 15-18kt this afternoon look to be
more occasional at this time except for KSWF.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts to 15-18kt possible this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR and showers in the
morning. SW wind becoming W-NW with gusts 20-25kt late morning
and into the afternoon, then gradually diminishing in the
evening.
Saturday - Sunday: VFR.
Monday: MVFR or lower possible with rain.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Increasing SW flow ahead of a frontal passage tonight and Friday
will lead to SCA conditions on much of the waters.
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all local ocean waters
beginning 3Z this evening, and currently runs through at least
Friday afternoon. Lingering seas above 5 ft may necessitate an
extension into at least Friday evening.
Non ocean waters are forecast to see 25 kt wind gusts develop
sometime Friday morning, subsiding by late afternoon or early
evening. An SCA on these waters will likely be needed with future
updates.
Winds and seas across the forecast waters will remain below advisory
levels Saturday through Monday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Special Weather Statement remains in place for southern
Connecticut today to highlight the continued risk of spread of
any fires that exist and/or ignite.
A cold front moves through the area Friday. Increasing west
winds behind the front will allow for RH values to drop in the
afternoon. Wind gusts up to 30 mph are likely in the afternoon,
with RH values between 30 and 40 percent across NE NJ and the
Lower Hudson Valley. Slightly higher RH values are forecast for
CT and LI. Given how dry recent conditions have been, there is
risk for an increased threat of fire spread, should ignition
occur..
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible today and Friday.
Daily record highs for October 31:
EWR: 82/1946
BDR: 75/2004
NYC: 81/1946
LGA: 81/1946
JFK: 75/1950
ISP: 73/2004
Daily record highs for November 1:
EWR: 85/1950
BDR: 71/2019
NYC: 84/1950
LGA: 83/1950
JFK: 80/1950
ISP: 77/1982
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Friday
for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
Friday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MET
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DR/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET
CLIMATE...