okx-afd on 2024-11-01

296
FXUS61 KOKX 011135
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
735 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes well to the north today dragging a cold
front through the area this afternoon. High pressure returns to
the area for the weekend. The high shifts off the New England
coast into Monday as a warm front lifts through the region. An
attendant cold front slowly approaches from the west Tuesday,
eventually moving through on Wednesday. Weak high pressure
returns late next week.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --The cold front continues to track east and at 10Z was moving
into eastern upstate New York to central Pennsylvania.
Precipitation ahead of the front remains sparse in a narrow
line. Timing still looks reasonable.

The best lift and moisture ahead of a cold front, moving into
western New York State, and northwestern Pennsylvania at 08Z,
will remain to the north, closer to the surface low. And with
little moisture and lift across the region, and with the CAMs
mainly dry, as well as the NAM, have lowered the probabilities
to slight chance, and added sprinkles to the weather, with
possibly only trace amounts if and where and precipitation
occurs. The warm and humid airmass ahead of the front remains,
with overnight temperatures ranging in the 60s to around 70. And
with temperatures rising into the 70s and near 80 degrees ahead
of the cold front, another day of record highs is possible, as
temperatures will be nearly 20 degrees above seasonal normals.
See climate section for record highs. With the dry conditions
and gusty winds the treat of fire spread, if ignition occurs,
remains, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire
forecast area. See Fire Weather section.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tranquil and dry weather continues tonight through Sunday as
high pressure builds to the west, and then over the region. And
Saturday through Sunday will see temperatures near seasonal
normals. Freezing to below freezing temperatures will be likely
across the interior and the Pine Barrens of Long Island Saturday
night. However, Freeze Warnings will no longer be issued across
the interior as the growing season has ended. See Public
Information Statement (PNSOKX) for details.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A 1032 mb surface high tracks off the New England coast into
Monday as a warm front lifts through the Northeast. Widespread
cloud cover accompanies this, and the flow veers southerly in
response, but little in the way of precipitation with best
forcing well to the north. Best chance of a few showers is
across the interior, mainly through Monday evening.

Broad ridging over the Eastern US amplifies as the axis shifts
over the region Tuesday, and the deep layer SW flow that
develops advects in another unusually mild air mass for the time
of year. Global guidance progs 925 mb temperatures around 15C
or 16C Tuesday, which should mix down into the low to mid 70s
across the local Tri State, or about 15 degrees above normal for
early November. Warmth continues on Wednesday, though an
attendant cold front from a shortwave topping the ridge will
approach from the west and introduce another chance for some
rain showers. With limited moisture and weak lift, this does not
appear to be a significant rainmaker. Temperatures fall back
into the 60s by Thursday as the ridging breaks down, though
guidance begins to diverge in solutions and confidence is low
into late week. National blend was largely followed for this
update.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A cold front approaches and tracks through the region into this
afternoon. High pressure returns tonight.

VFR. Lowering cigs toward and under 10 kft this morning ahead
of the front, and can`t rule out a few spotty showers, roughly
thru 16Z, but should remain light and falling out of a mid
level cloud deck, so do not anticipate MVFR conds.

Light SW flow increases to 10-15G20kt after this morning and
veers more to the W, increasing to 15-20G25-30kt by afternoon.
Winds shift to the NW generally after 18Z, with gusts gradually
diminishing toward 00Z Sat. Modest NW flow on Saturday with
speeds around 10 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Strengthening winds and start of frequent gusts this morning
could be an hour or two off.

Isolated gusts up to 35 kt possible in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday and Sunday: VFR.

Monday: Mainly VFR with slight chance of showers.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. S winds G20kt in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains on the ocean waters, expanding to
the remainder of the forecast waters mid morning as wind gusts
ahead of an approaching cold front increase. Winds shift to the
west and increase behind the cold front this afternoon. A few
gusts may briefly reach gale force with the passage of the cold
front. As high pressure builds in from the west the pressure
gradient will diminish along with cold advection, and winds and
gusts will be diminishing this evening, with the SCA ending on
the non ocean waters early this evening. With ocean seas slowly
subsiding through tonight the SCA remains ending first on the
waters west of Fire Island Inlet, and to the east by Saturday
morning. Sub advisory conditions then continue Saturday through
Monday night, with high pressure in control. Increasing S/SW
flow on Tuesday may lead to SCA conditions on at least the ocean
by Tuesday evening, persisting through Wednesday with lingering
seas above 5 ft and gusts 25 to 30 kt.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move through the area this afternoon.
Gusts ahead of and behind the front will likely reach 30 mph,
with the potential for a few gusts as high as 40 mph this
afternoon. Sustained winds will be 15 to 20 mph. Relative
humidity drops off behind the cold front, to 30 to 35 percent.
Given the combination of strong winds, low relative humidity,
and dry fuels, there is a significantly elevated fire growth
potential. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the entire
area into early this evening.

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible Friday.

Daily record highs for November 1:

EWR: 85/1950
BDR: 71/2019
NYC: 84/1950
LGA: 83/1950
JFK: 80/1950
ISP: 77/1982

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ211>213.
NJ...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...DR/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DR/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET
CLIMATE...