336
FXUS61 KOKX 011916
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
316 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure returns to the area for the weekend following the cold
frontal passage. The high begins to off the New England coast Sunday
night. A warm front lifts through the region Monday as an attendant
cold front slowly approaches from the west Tuesday. THe front
eventually passes through Wednesday into Thursday. Weak high
pressure then returns late next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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A cold front will bring cooling temperatures into tonight, ending
the above average temperatures we have been seeing. NW winds will
weaken through the evening with lighter winds tonight under clear
skies. Overnight lows will be near-50 to the low-40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cool, dry pattern sets up for the weekend as high pressure builds
in from the west under an amplifying ridge aloft. Highs on Saturday
will range between the low-60s to upper-50s and on Sunday primarily
topping off in the mid-50s. Light northerly flow remains through
Sunday.
Clear skies and light northerly winds could lead to decent
radiational cooling Saturday night. Lows are forecast to be in the
mid-40s for the NYC metro, low-40s to mid-30s for most of the area,
then much cooler in the low-30s to upper-20s in the interior areas
of the Lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut and also in the LI Pine
Barrens. Frost looks likely to occur for around half of the area,
though, the dewpoint depression may end up being to great for some
areas.
Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories will not be issued for
interior areas as it is now past their growing season. Only if the
risk for freezing temperatures or frost becomes more widespread for
areas outside of the interior will freeze warnings or frost
advisories be considered.
While the ridge aloft continues to strengthen Sunday night, surface
high pressure begins to slide NE into New England, allowing for
gradually increasing cloud cover Sunday night ahead of a warm front
and leading to a NE wind shift. This will keep overnight lows
limited to the mid/low-40s for most areas with only far interior
areas nearing the freezing mark.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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**Key Points**
* A warming trend for midweek followed by a slight cool down late
week.
*A dry forecast through the beginning of the period with shower
chances developing Wednesday-Thursday.
No significant changes were made on this update and the NBM was
closely followed. Global guidance/ensembles are in fairly good
agreement with the synoptic evolution of features through late next
week. The period begins with an amplifying upper ridge over much of
the east. The ridge flattens as its axis translates to the east by
Wednesday, and a weak mid level shortwave heads north of the area
across New England. At the surface, a warm front passes through and
to the north on Monday, allowing for a predominately S/SW flow and
warm up. This should be a dry frontal passage given the airmass in
place.850mb temperatures peak out on Wednesday near 10-12C, which
should yield some mid to upper 70s, which is about 10-15 degrees
above normal. Of note is the lack of spread in the NBM MaxT
percentiles, around 4-5 degrees in the IQR at this lead time, adding
some additional confidence to the values for Wednesday. A cold front
then moves through associated with the above mentioned shortwave,
providing a chance of showers Wednesday into early Thursday. Some
timing differences are noted here with frontal passage; however
there is general agreement that this will be a light rainfall, given
the better forcing to the north. A cooldown thereafter for Thursday
post front, as the upper flow remains flat into the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will move through late this afternoon into early
this evening. High pressure will then return tonight into
Saturday.
WSW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt will veer W with passage
of a pre-frontal trough before shifting NW (right of 310
magnetic) 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25kt with fropa early this
evening. Winds diminish mostly to 5-10 kt overnight except at
the NYC metros which should remain around or just over 10 kt. A
few gusts up to 20 kt are possible daytime Sat, but should be
more frequent E of the NYC metros.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
A brief gust over 30 kt possible at any time this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday afternoon through Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. S-SW winds G20kt.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. SW winds G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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A SCA remains on all waters through 7pm this evening. Thereafter, it
will remain on ocean waters for wind gusts near or above 25 kt and 5
ft waves. The western ocean will lose its SCA at 11pm tonight while
the central and eastern ocean zones will keep the SCA until 2am
tonight.
Thereafter, SCA criteria is not expected to be met through the
weekend under high pressure.
Increasing S/SW flow on Tuesday may lead to SCA conditions on at
least the ocean by Tuesday evening, persisting through Wednesday
with lingering seas above 5 ft and gusts 25 to 30 kt.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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An ongoing Red Flag Warning for gusty winds and dropping humidity
will expire at 7pm.
Despite weaker winds, the persistent dry weather pattern continues
under high pressure into the weekend leading to lingering fire
weather concerns.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ211>213.
NJ...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...DBR/BR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DBR/BR