190
FXUS61 KOKX 021409
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1009 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region through Sunday and moves
off the New England coast Sunday night into Monday. A warm front
passes to the west and north during Monday. A cold front slowly
approaches on Tuesday and passes through the area sometime
Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Weak high pressure
likely returns thereafter.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No major changes were made with this late morning update. The
forecast remains on track.
Surface high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes
builds slowly east through today as an upper ridge amplifies
across the northern plains and upper midwest. A northerly flow
with lowering dew points will build into the region with nearly
clear conditions. The strato cu over the lower Hudson Valley
continues to dissipate with drier air moving in, and weak
subsidence. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The surface high continues to build east tonight through Sunday
and off the New England coast Sunday night into Monday as an
upper ridge continues to amplify. The ridge axis moves to the
coast Sunday night and Monday. A weak warm front will move west
and north of the region Monday, with little lift or moisture.
With clear skies, and winds becoming light, tonight will be a
good radiational cooling night. There is a chance that winds
remain above 5kts into late tonight before decoupling. Frost
formation will be possible across a large portion of the region,
with temperatures at or near freezing inland, and generally in
the mid 30s elsewhere, except the NYC metro area where
temperatures will be near 40 degrees, and the Long Island Pine
Barrens with temperatures possibly at or below freezing for a
few hours. With the growing season having ended across the
interior zones, frost and freeze headlines will not be posted.
However, the growing season continues across coastal
Connecticut, and portions of northeastern New Jersey, and Long
Island. With the possibility of frost tonight a Frost Advisory
have been issued for coastal Connecticut, Southern Westchester
county, Eastern Bergen county, and Suffolk county. There is a
chance that dew point depressions will be too large for frost
to develop.
With the airmass in place Sunday night and overnight
temperatures similar to Saturday night, freezing temperatures
inland, and frost formation along the coast will be possible
once again.
Temperatures will be new seasonal levels tonight through
Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**Key Points**
* A warming trend through Wednesday followed by a slight cool down
late week.
*A dry forecast through the beginning of the period with shower
chances developing Wednesday-Thursday night.
Deep ridging will be in place over the east coast Monday night,
with high pressure centered offshore. A cold front will slowly
approach from the west and a warming trend will continue before
it`s passage sometime Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.
Highs Tuesday look to be in the low to mid 70s, with mid to
upper 70s on Wednesday. These highs are about 20 degrees above
normal for early November. Confidence is relatively at the
moment given little spread across the NBM MaxT percentiles.
Forecast confidence falls off later on Wednesday with the cold
front moving through. The GFS and ECMWF bring the weak cold
front through, with high pressure returning in it`s wake. The
Canadian however seems to stall the front and forms a low over
or near the area as a strong shortwave moves overhead. This
solution could bring a good soaking rain to the area. The
ensembles follow relatively close to their deterministic models,
so the LREF Grandensemble and NBM are showing at least some
light QPF and PoP Wednesday through Friday due to the GEPS
input. Capped at low end slight chance for now. Temperatures
cool off a bit, but remain above normal through the end of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in through Sunday.
VFR thru the TAF period. SCT to BKN deck around 035-045 likely
won`t make it farther than KSWF this morning. Only FEW expected
elsewhere.
NW/N winds pick up after 13-14Z this morning around 10-12 kt
with at least occasional gusts in the upper teens. Winds then
decrease after 22Z below 10 kt, but stay out of the N.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Start and end time of gusts today may be off by an hour or two.
Gusts may be more occasional, especially in the afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday through Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. S-SW winds G20kt.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR with slight chance of showers. SW winds G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
With high pressure building into the forecast waters today
through Sunday, and then moving off the New England coast
Sunday night into Monday winds and seas will remain below
advisory levels.
Mainly quiet conditions are expected over the waters Monday night
through the end of next week. SCA conditions are possible Tuesday
evening through Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Wave heights on the
ocean likely increase to 5-6 ft, with a SW flow gusting up to 25 kt.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite weaker winds, the persistent dry weather pattern
continues under high pressure this weekend leading to lingering
fire weather concerns.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ009>012.
NY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ071-078>081.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ104.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...BR/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...MET/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT