914
FXUS61 KOKX 022337
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build in through Sunday and move off the New
England coast Sunday night into Monday. A warm front will pass
to the north on Tuesday. A weakening cold front will approach
on Wednesday and stall to the south Thursday and Friday as high
pressure builds to the north.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure remains firmly in place with a strengthening
ridge aloft.
Clear skies under light northerly flow tonight will lead to
colder temperatures. Areas of frost appear likely for most of
the area. Frost Advisories have been issued for areas likely to
experience frost with the exception of interior locations,
since their growing season has now ended.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s/lower 30s for interior
locations and the Long Island Pine Barrens. The rest of the area
will cool into the mid/upper 30s, except for Nassau county and
the NYC metro which will only cool into the lower/mid 40s.
Highs on Sunday will remain cool in the mid 50s, under a light
northerly flow. Sunshine will stick around all day.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Sunday night, the ridge aloft begins to shift to our east as
surface high pressure slowly moves into New England.
Cloud cover and dewpoints will slowly begin to increase toward
daybreak as onshore flow returns due to high pressure moving
east. Northerly flow should keep us dry and cool for the
majority of the night, with Sunday night lows around the same as
they were Saturday night. Areas of frost for large portions of
the area are possible again Sunday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Key Points:
* Unseasonable warmth Tue-Thu.
* Mainly dry through the period.
A 1035 mb sfc high will move off the New England coast on Mon,
setting up as a Bermuda high off the Mid Atlantic and then SE
coasts Tue through Thu as a large upper ridge build over the
eastern States, The upper ridge will flatten on Thu, with a more
WNW zonal flow aloft setting up for late week as an upper
trough moves across Hudson Bay and Quebec, and as a large closed
low moves slowly out of the Four Corners region toward the
central Plains. Fcst also has slight chance PoP for Thu
afternoon/night with the front stalling not too far off to the
south.
Unseasonable warmth expected for the mid week period especially
on Wed, when temps may again rise well into the 70s, possibly
to near 80 in parts of NE NJ. The weakening cold front moving
through Wed night will only put a dent in the warmth on Thu,
with high temps still either side of 70, then progressively
cooler wx (with temps still above normal) expected thereafter as
high pressure beneath the confluence of nrn/srn streams over
the nrn Plains and upper Great Lakes builds toward the area.
The 12Z GFS brings a warm front up toward the area next Sat.
This may be a bit on the fast side, with the area still
underneath the confluence zone between the upper trough over ern
Canada and upper ridging off the SE coast, and the GFS appearing
to eject mid level energy out of the Plains closed low too
quickly, so fcst only has slight chance PoP for that time frame.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds in through Sunday.
VFR thru the TAF period.
NW/N winds around 10 kt with occasional gusts to the upper teens.
Winds then decrease after 02Z below 10 kt, but stay out of the
N. Winds on Sunday will be from the N/NE, remaining less than
10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts in the upper teens possible through around 02Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday through Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. S-SW winds G20kt.
Wed-Thu: Mainly VFR with slight chance of showers. SW winds G20kt on
Wednesday, diminishing into Thursday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Under high pressure, winds and seas remain below SCA criteria
through Tue. SCA cond are possible on the ocean E of Fire
Island Inlet Tue night-Wed as SW flow increases to near 20 kt
with gusts up to 25 kt, and seas build to 5-6 ft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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Despite weaker winds, the persistent dry weather pattern will
continue under high pressure this weekend leading to lingering
fire weather concerns.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ009>012.
NY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ071-078>081.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ104-106-108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/BR
NEAR TERM...BG/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BG/BR
FIRE WEATHER...BG/BR
HYDROLOGY...BG/BR