887
FXUS61 KOKX 030752
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
252 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains over the region into Monday, moving off the
New England late Monday, then remaining offshore Tuesday. A warm
front will pass to the north Monday night into Tuesday. A cold
front slowly approached on Wednesday and moves through sometime
Wednesday evening. The front may stall south of the area as high
pressure builds in to end the week. Another cold front may pass
through the area Friday night or Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure remains over the region, centered near Lake
Ontario at 07Z. A Frost Advisory remains in effect until 800 AM
EST for areas likely to experience frost with the exception of
interior locations, since their growing season has now ended,
and the NYC metropolitan area. Temperatures, and a rather dry
airmass, will be marginal for frost formation overnight into
early this morning as light northerly winds persist. Will re-
evaluate the advisory at the time of the morning update.
High pressure remains over the area into tonight with near
seasonal temperatures. Tonight temperatures will once again fall
into the mid and upper 30s across coastal Connecticut and
Suffolk county, despite weak warm advection setting up late at
night. Frost formation will be possible tonight as winds become
light, and the flow becomes easterly, raising dew points into
the lower 30s. However, higher clouds will be moving in and
temperatures may not be as low as currently forecast. With the
current advisory in effect, and the uncertainty with frost
development tonight will not issue an advisory for Sunday night
at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The surface high beginning to move off the New England coast
late Monday and then becomes nearly stationary off the coast
into Tuesday. Warm advection increases Monday into Monday night
with a light southerly flow. Monday`s highs will be just above
seasonal normals, and lows Monday night will be nearly 10
degrees above normal as a warm front passes to the north. With
an increased return flow, and a warm front well to the north,
temperatures Tuesday will be 10 to nearly 15 degrees above
normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Key Points:
* Unseasonable warmth continues on Wednesday with the potential
for near record to record high max temperatures.
* Cooling trend Thursday through Saturday with mainly dry conditions.
The upper level ridge axis will be east of the area at the start of
Tuesday night as a flattening shortwave approaches from the north
and west. An associated surface low will pass well to our north, but
drag a cold front through the area likely sometime Wednesday
evening. Deep SW/W flow ahead of the front should allow for
temperatures to peak in the upper 70s to low 80s. These temperatures
would be record or near record highs for 11/6.
Only slight chance PoPs with the passing of the front. There is
potential for the front to stall near the area. The Canadian was the
most aggressive with this 24 hours ago, but has trended towards a
drier solution like the GFS and ECMWF.
High pressure builds in to end the week, with the potential for
another cold frontal passage Friday night or Saturday. A cooling
trend is expected Thursday through Saturday, however, highs through
this time will likely remain above normal for early November.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds in today and shifts offshore early Monday.
VFR through the TAF period.
N winds under 10 kt early this AM. Winds after sunrise will be
from the N/NE, remaining less than 10 kt. Winds start to veer
and become more easterly at the very end of the TAF period with
high pressure moving offshore.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Tonight through Monday: VFR.
Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. S-SW winds G20kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR with slight chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Under high pressure, winds and seas remain below SCA criteria
through Tuesday. SW winds pick up ahead of a cold front Tuesday
night. At this time, 20-25 kt gusts are possible on all waters,
with wave heights on the ocean waters likely increasing to 5-7
ft. Conditions start to improve Wednesday night and sub- SCA
conditions are expected thereafter.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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Despite weaker winds, the persistent dry weather pattern will
continue under high pressure today leading to lingering fire
weather concerns.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the first half of next
weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for CTZ009>012.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NYZ071-078>081.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NJZ104-106-108.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...MET/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT