815
FXUS61 KOKX 031729
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1229 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the region into Monday, moving off the
New England late Monday, then remaining offshore Tuesday. A warm
front will pass to the north Monday night into Tuesday. A cold
front slowly approached on Wednesday and moves through sometime
Wednesday evening. The front may stall south of the area as high
pressure builds in to end the week. Another cold front may pass
through the area Friday night or Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.
High pressure remains over the region, centered over
southeastern Canada into northern upstate New York at 14Z.
Winds have remained light northerly through the night, and
temperatures have not fallen as forecast, and the airmass
remains rather dry. With frost formation no longer expected the
Frost Advisory for this morning has been cancelled.
With high pressure building into the region dry weather
continues with nearly clear skies, with perhaps a few thin high
clouds at times. The high remains over the area into tonight
with near seasonal temperatures. Tonight temperatures will once
again fall into the mid and upper 30s across coastal Connecticut
and Suffolk county, despite weak warm advection setting up late
at night. Frost formation will be possible tonight as winds
become light, and the flow becomes easterly, raising dew points
into the lower 30s. However, higher thin clouds will be moving
in and temperatures may not be as low as currently forecast.
With the uncertainty of frost development tonight will not
issue an advisory at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The surface high beginning to move off the New England coast
late Monday and then becomes nearly stationary off the coast
into Tuesday. Warm advection increases Monday into Monday night
with a light southerly flow. Monday`s highs will be just above
seasonal normals, and lows Monday night will be nearly 10
degrees above normal as a warm front passes to the north. With
an increased return flow, and a warm front well to the north,
temperatures Tuesday will be 10 to nearly 15 degrees above
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:
* Unseasonable warmth continues on Wednesday with the potential
for near record to record high max temperatures.
* Cooling trend Thursday through Saturday with mainly dry conditions.
The upper level ridge axis will be east of the area at the start of
Tuesday night as a flattening shortwave approaches from the north
and west. An associated surface low will pass well to our north, but
drag a cold front through the area likely sometime Wednesday
evening. Deep SW/W flow ahead of the front should allow for
temperatures to peak in the upper 70s to low 80s. These temperatures
would be record or near record highs for 11/6.
Only slight chance PoPs with the passing of the front. There is
potential for the front to stall near the area. The Canadian was the
most aggressive with this 24 hours ago, but has trended towards a
drier solution like the GFS and ECMWF.
High pressure builds in to end the week, with the potential for
another cold frontal passage Friday night or Saturday. A cooling
trend is expected Thursday through Saturday, however, highs through
this time will likely remain above normal for early November.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure continues to build in before shifting offshore
early tomorrow.
VFR through most of the TAF period. Early tomorrow, more
scattered cumulus develops nearing MVFR levels, but is expected
to remain scattered until the afternoon. After 21Z tomorrow,
MVFR is possible for southern terminals.
N/NNE winds have weakened early this afternoon, so tempo gusts
have been removed and weaker winds now reflected in the TAFs.
Winds start to veer this evening into tonight taking on a more
easterly component 5-10 kts or light and variable. Tomorrow
morning, winds become southeasterly 8-12 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are possible for gusts late this morning into the
afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday through Wednesday: MVFR possible early Tue followed by
VFR for the remainder of the Tue into Wed. S-SW winds G20kt.
Thursday-Friday Morning: Mainly VFR with slight chance of
showers.
Friday Afternoon-Evening: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes to the winds and seas with this update.
Under high pressure, winds and seas remain below SCA criteria
through Tuesday. SW winds pick up ahead of a cold front Tuesday
night. At this time, 20-25 kt gusts are possible on all waters,
with wave heights on the ocean waters likely increasing to 5-7
ft. Conditions start to improve Wednesday night and sub- SCA
conditions are expected thereafter.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite weaker winds, the persistent dry weather pattern will
continue under high pressure today leading to lingering fire
weather concerns.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the first half of next
weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JP/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...MET/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT