795
FXUS61 KOKX 032047
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
347 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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High pressure remains over the region into Monday, moving off the
New England late Monday, then remaining offshore Tuesday. A warm
front will pass to the north Monday night into Tuesday. A cold
front slowly approaches on Wednesday and moves through sometime
in the afternoon or night. The front slowly pushes farther south
with high pressure in control through Saturday. A low pressure
system may then impact the weather for Sunday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

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With high pressure building into the region dry weather
continues with nearly clear skies, with perhaps a few thin high
clouds at times. The high remains over the area tonight with
near seasonal temperatures. Tonight temperatures will once again
fall into the mid and upper 30s across coastal Connecticut and
Suffolk county, despite weak warm advection setting up late at
night. some isolate upper 20s are possible across the Pine
Barrens and well interior. Frost formation will be possible
tonight as winds become light, and the flow becomes easterly,
raising dew points into the lower 30s. However, higher thin
clouds will be moving in and temperatures may not be as low as
currently forecast. NBM is showing up to an 80% chance of seeing
temperatures less than 37 across southern CT, less for central
and eastern Long Island, but with the possibility of good
radiational cooling, decided to issue a Frost Advisory across
southern New Haven, southern Middlesex, southern New London, and
Suffolk county. As previously mentioned, the clouds will be the
challenge tonight, but frost may start to form prior to the
clouds coming in. Once they do come in and if they are thick
enough, temperatures will warm and frost will not be a problem
any longer.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...

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The surface high begins to move off the New England coast
Monday afternoon and then becomes slowly sinks southeast into
Tuesday. Warm advection increases Monday into Monday night with
a light southerly flow. Monday`s highs will be near or slightly
above seasonal normals, and lows Monday night will be nearly 10
degrees above normal as a warm front passes to the north. With
an increased return flow, and a warm front well to the north,
temperatures Tuesday will be 10 to nearly 15 degrees above
normal, with overnight lows more indicative of late spring into
early summer, ranging from the lower 50s to upper 50s (lower 60s
across the NYC metro area).
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

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Key Points:

* Unseasonable warmth for Wednesday with the potential for near
  record to record high temperatures. Cooler, but above normal
  temperatures continue through the weekend.

* Rain possible Sunday into Sunday night.

An upper level ridge axis will be east of the area at the start of
Tuesday night as a flattening shortwave approaches from the north
and west. An associated surface low will pass well to our north, but
drag a cold front through the area likely sometime Wednesday
afternoon or night. Not much moisture with this front, so will limit
shower potential to a slight chance north of the city. 900mb temps
around 15C and a deep SW/W flow ahead of the front should allow for
temperatures to peak in the 70s across the entire area with spotty
80 degree readings possible in NE NJ and the city. These
temperatures would be record or near record highs for November 6th.
See the climate section below for the records.

The front sags south Thursday through Saturday with high pressure in
control over the forecast area in spite of a trough passing through
Friday into Friday night. The next chance of rain then arrives by
the end of Sunday as a warm front approaches us ahead of a low
pressure system shifting through the Great Lakes. High temperatures
Thursday through Sunday remaining above normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

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High pressure continues to build in before shifting offshore early
tomorrow.

VFR through most of the TAF period. Early tomorrow, more scattered
cumulus develops nearing MVFR levels, but is expected to remain
scattered until the afternoon. After 21Z tomorrow, MVFR is possible
for southern terminals.

N/NNE winds at 5-10 kts continue through 23-00Z. Winds start to veer
into tonight taking on a more easterly component 5-10 kts or light
and variable. Tomorrow morning, winds become SE 8-12 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are possible for winds through the rest of the evening
due to variable wind directions above 5 kts.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday through Wednesday: MVFR possible early Tue followed by VFR
for the remainder of the Tue into Wed. S-SW winds G20kt.

Thursday-Friday Morning: Mainly VFR with slight chance of showers.

Friday Afternoon-Evening: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...

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Under high pressure, winds and seas remain below SCA criteria
through Tuesday. SW winds pick up ahead of a cold front Tuesday
night. Gusts to at least 25 kt will be possible on most of the
waters, with wave heights on the ocean likely increasing to 5-7
ft. The front moves through on Weds with advisory conditions
mainly on the ocean, but possibly on the other waters as well.
Winds subside Weds night with an extended period of sub-advisory
conditions beginning by Thursday morning and probably lasting
through the rest of the forecast period.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

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Despite weaker winds, the persistent dry weather pattern will
continue under high pressure Monday and Tuesday leading to
lingering fire weather concerns.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...

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There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
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&&

.CLIMATE...

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Record high temperatures are possible Wednesday.

Daily record highs for November 6:

EWR: 80/1948
BDR: 72/2022
NYC: 75/2022
LGA: 75/2022
JFK: 75/2015
ISP: 74/2022
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

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CT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Monday for
     CTZ010>012.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Monday for
     NYZ078>081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JC/JP
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP
CLIMATE...