368
FXUS61 KOKX 040849 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
349 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control and slides east and offshore
tonight. A warm front lifts well north of the area tonight into
Tuesday. A cold front slowly approaches on Wednesday and moves
through sometime in the afternoon or night. The front slowly
pushes south of the area as high pressure briefly builds in.
Another cold front will pass through sometime Friday evening or
night. High pressure then builds in and will remain in control
through at least early Sunday. A warm front may move through
the area late Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An anomalous and amplified upper level ridge over the SE US will
be the dominant feature. This should help to maintain the
predominantly dry regime across the area. As surface high
pressure to the north gets further east into this afternoon an
onshore SE flow gets established. This will result in near
normal temperatures today with daytime highs reaching the upper
50s to around 60. Towards late in the day skies will average
mostly cloudy across a good portion of the area.

During tonight low pressure over the Upper Midwest lifts north
into Southern Canada. A warm front will extend quite a distance
to the east of the low, and the southeastern edge of the warm
frontal boundary gets close towards midnight. This will result
mostly cloudy skies. Any lift should be weak with at most a very
light shower and a few sprinkles as BUFKIT soundings show
pockets of shallow moisture lower down in the column. With the
warm front lifting well to the north after midnight an air mass
change takes place. Towards daybreak on Tuesday expect dew point
readings to climb into the 50s on a southerly flow which
becomes more southwest towards the early morning. Temperatures
should actually rise some into the pre-dawn hours. Any
precipitation would be quite light, and only on the order of one
or two one hundredths. Thus, carried minimal PoPs with only a
slight chance into eastern portions of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
During Tuesday looks for a mostly cloudy start. With the region
firmly in the warm sector look for skies to clear into the
afternoon. As high pressure gets further offshore a stronger SW
synoptic flow gets established, especially by late in the day and
into the evening. This will allow temperatures to climb well above
normal with most spots getting into the lower 70s, with dew
points anomalously high and in the upper 50s to around 60.

For Tuesday night a SW flow will have temperatures running well
above normal with a warm advection pattern locked in. The
region will be in-between high pressure in the Western Atlantic
and a cold front approaching from the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. The cold front will remain well off to the west, thus
the region will remain dry with temperatures remaining in the
upper half of the 50s to some lower 60s. This would be close to
15 degrees above normal in most places.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:

* Unseasonable warmth for Wednesday with the potential for near
  record to record high temperatures. Cooler, but above normal
  temperatures continue through the weekend.

* Rain possible late Sunday into Sunday night.

An upper level ridge axis will be east of the area at the start
of Wednesday as a flattening shortwave approaches from the
north and west. An associated surface low will pass well to our
north, but drag a cold front through the area likely sometime
Wednesday afternoon or night. Not much moisture with this front,
so will limit shower potential to a slight chance north of the
city. 900mb temps around 15C and a deep SW/W flow ahead of the
front should allow for temperatures to peak in the 70s across
the entire area with spotty 80 degree readings possible in NE NJ
and the city. These temperatures would be record or near record
highs for November 6th. See the climate section below for the
records. With the timing of the front and potential for some
showers, the lowest confidence in the high temperature forecast
is across the Lower Hudson Valley, with the highest confidence
being across Long Island where the front will move through
latest. This uncertainty is seen in the spread between the LREF
and NBM 10th and 90th percentiles.

High pressure briefly builds in and will remain in control
through early Friday with another dry cold frontal passage
sometime Friday evening or night. This will be followed by high
pressure again through much of the weekend. This pattern will
bring a very gradual cooling trend, but temperatures remain
above normal. PoPs come back Sunday as a frontal system may
bring a much needed widespread rain event. Pushed back timing of
the NBM PoPs, but this will likely trend later with subsequent
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains near the terminals through the TAF period.
A warm front lifts across the terminals tonight.

VFR through most of the TAF period. Cigs will gradually thicken
and lower after 00z Tuesday, with MVFR cigs developing, especially
along the coast. Timing of MVFR cigs may be off by an hour or
two.

N/NNE will gradually veer this morning taking on a more easterly
component 5-10 kts or light and variable. Later this morning,
winds become SE 8-12 kt. Late Monday, winds become S around 10kt
or less.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for changing wind directions.

Timing of MVFR cigs may be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tonight through Wednesday: MVFR possible early Tue followed by
VFR for the remainder of the Tue into Wed. S-SW winds G20kt.

Thursday-Friday Morning: Mainly VFR with slight chance of
showers.

Friday Afternoon-Evening: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A SE wind becomes S tonight, then SW into Tuesday. Sub small
craft conditions will remain through much of the day Tuesday.
At that time a SW flow increases and brings small craft
conditions to the ocean waters by early Tuesday evening, with
marginal small craft conditions for the southern and eastern
bays of LI, and far eastern LI Sound.

SCA conditions continue for at least the ocean waters on
Wednesday. SW winds ahead of the cold front will likely gust
up to 25 kt, with waves on the ocean reaching 5-6 feet.
Conditions start to improve Wednesday night and by Thursday
sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters. It will then
be relatively quiet on the waters through the weekend, with
a chance of 25 kt gusts with another cold front Friday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An SPS (Special Weather Statement) has been issued today for
all of Southern CT due to an elevated wildfire risk. This was
coordinated with the appropriate state agencies / partners.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The prolonged stretch of predominantly dry weather continues,
thus there are no hydrologic concerns.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible Wednesday.

Daily records for Wednesday, November 6:

Maximum temperatures:
EWR: 80/1948
BDR: 72/2022
NYC: 75/2022
LGA: 75/2022
JFK: 75/2015
ISP: 74/2022

Max minimum temperatures:
EWR: 66/2022
BDR: 62/2022 *
NYC: 66/2022 *
LGA: 65/2015
JFK: 64/2022
ISP: 65/2022

*Also in other years

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for CTZ010>012.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NYZ078>081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/JT
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JE/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JE/JT
CLIMATE...