224
FXUS61 KOKX 041727
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1227 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic coasts
will move east through tonight. A warm front will then lift
well to the north tonight into Tuesday. A cold front will slowly
approach on Wednesday, move through in the afternoon or at
night, then continue pushing southward as high pressure briefly
builds in. Another cold front will pass through Friday night,
followed by building high pressure through at least early
Sunday. A warm front may move through late Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Only minor tweaks to trend from 13Z/14Z obs as the forecast
remains on track. An anomalous and amplified upper level ridge
over the SE US will be the dominant feature. This should help
to maintain the predominantly dry regime across the area. As
surface high pressure along the coast heads farther east into
this afternoon, an onshore SE flow gets established. This will
result in near normal temperatures today with daytime highs
reaching the upper 50s to around 60. Toward late day skies will
average mostly cloudy across a good portion of the area.
During tonight low pressure over the Upper Midwest lifts north
into Southern Canada. A warm front will extend quite a
distance to the east of the low, and the southeastern edge of
the warm frontal boundary gets close towards midnight. This will
result mostly cloudy skies. Any lift should be weak with at
most a very light shower and a few sprinkles as fcst soundings
show pockets of shallow moisture lower down in the column. With
the warm front lifting well to the north after midnight an air
mass change takes place. Towards daybreak on Tuesday expect dew
point readings to climb into the 50s on a southerly flow which
becomes more southwest towards the early morning. Temperatures
should actually rise some into the predawn hours. Any
precipitation would be quite light, and only on the order of
one or two one hundredths. Thus, carried minimal PoP with only a
slight chance into eastern portions of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
During Tuesday looks for a mostly cloudy start. With the region
firmly in the warm sector look for skies to clear into the
afternoon. As high pressure gets further offshore a stronger SW
synoptic flow gets established, especially by late in the day
and into the evening. This will allow temperatures to climb well
above normal with most spots getting into the lower 70s, with
dew points anomalously high and in the upper 50s to around 60.
For Tuesday night a SW flow will have temperatures running well
above normal with a warm advection pattern locked in. The
region will be in-between high pressure in the Western Atlantic
and a cold front approaching from the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. The cold front will remain well off to the west, thus
the region will remain dry with temperatures remaining in the
upper half of the 50s to some lower 60s. This would be close to
15 degrees above normal in most places.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:
* Unseasonable warmth for Wednesday, with the potential for
near record to record high temperatures. Cooler, but above
normal temperatures continue through the weekend.
* Rain possible late Sunday into Sunday night.
An upper level ridge axis will be east of the area at the start
of Wednesday as a flattening shortwave approaches from the
north and west. An associated surface low will pass well to our
north, but drag a cold front through the area likely sometime
Wednesday afternoon or night. Not much moisture with this front,
so will limit shower potential to a slight chance north of the
city. 900mb temps around 15C and a deep SW/W flow ahead of the
front should allow for temperatures to peak in the 70s across
the entire area with spotty 80 degree readings possible in NE NJ
and the city. These temperatures would be record or near record
highs for Wed Nov 6. See the climate section below for the
records. With the timing of the front and potential for some
showers, the lowest confidence in the high temperature forecast
is across the Lower Hudson Valley, with the highest confidence
being across Long Island where the front will move through
latest. This uncertainty is seen in the spread between the LREF
and NBM 10th and 90th percentiles.
High pressure briefly builds in and will remain in control
through early Friday with another dry cold frontal passage
sometime Friday evening or night. This will be followed by high
pressure again through much of the weekend. This pattern will
bring a very gradual cooling trend, but temperatures remain
above normal. PoPs come back Sunday as a frontal system may
bring a much needed widespread rain event. Pushed back timing of
the NBM PoPs, but this will likely trend later with subsequent
forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure shifts east of the terminals through the TAF
period. A warm front lifts through tonight.
VFR through most of the TAF period. Some clouds around 030-035
may be around today, but should stay VFR and be more SCT in
nature. However, there is the possibility of brief MVFR
conditions through the day. Cigs will then gradually thicken and
lower after 06z Tuesday, with MVFR cigs possible for
KISP/KBDR/KGON. GUidance has trended against MVFR for the rest
of the terminals, so have kept clouds scattered at 025, then BKN
at 070. All terminals see improvement after 12Z, regardless of
MVFR development or not with clouds scattering out through the
day Tuesday.
Winds have become E/ESE 8-12 kt. WInds continue to veer through
today, winds becoming S around5-10 kt this evening, then
dropping below 10 kts tonight, then eventually SW around 10 kt
Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon expect SW 8-12 kts. Gusts of
20 kts are possible to develop at or just after 00Z Wednesday,
so have been excluded from the TAFs since they currently start
just outside the TAF period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Brief periods of MVFR can not be completely ruled out today,
but expecting any low clouds to hover around 035 and be more SCT
in nature.
Amendments possible for changing wind directions.
Occurrence of MVFR cigs tonight looks unlikely, but a small
chance still remains.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. S-SW winds G20kt possible.
Thursday-Friday Morning: Mainly VFR with slight chance of
showers at KSWF.
Friday Afternoon-Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet conditions will continue into tonight as as SE winds
become S tonight. Increasing SW flow on Tue will likely bring
SCA cond to the ocean waters by early Tue evening, with marginal
SCA cond possible for the southern and eastern bays of LI, and
the far ern Sound.
SCA conditions continue for at least the ocean waters on Wed as
SW winds ahead of a cold front likely gust up to 25 kt, with
ocean seas 5-6 ft. Conditions start to improve Wed night and by
Thursday quiet cond return to all waters.
There is a chance of 25-kt gusts with another cold front
Fri night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SPS (Special Weather Statement) issued for all of Southern CT
due to an elevated wildfire risk. This was coordinated with
the appropriate state agencies / partners.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The prolonged stretch of predominantly dry weather continues,
thus there are no hydrologic concerns.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible Wednesday.
Daily records for Wed Nov 6:
Daily record high temperatures:
EWR: 80/1948
BDR: 72/2022
NYC: 75/2022
LGA: 75/2022
JFK: 75/2015
ISP: 74/2022
Daily record high minimum temperatures:
EWR: 66/2022
BDR: 62/2022 *
NYC: 66/2022 *
LGA: 65/2015
JFK: 64/2022
ISP: 65/2022
* And in other years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/BG
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JE/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JE/JT
CLIMATE...