680
FXUS61 KOKX 042100
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
400 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Strong high pressure off the New England coast will move
southeast tonight as a warm front passes well to the north. The
high will become nearly stationary off the Mid Atlantic coast
during mid week. A cold front will slowly approach on Wednesday,
move through in the afternoon or at night, then continue
pushing southward as high pressure briefly builds in.
Another cold front will pass through Friday night, followed by
building high pressure through at least early Sunday. A complex
frontal system may affect the area late Sunday into early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Seeing mostly cloudy skies over a good deal of the area from NYC
metro east with moisture trapped beneath an H9 inversion. With a
sfc return S flow developing these clouds should remain
tonight, and as WAA begins temps may not change much or could
even slowly rise in spots (lows from the mid 40s inland to lower
50s coast to mid 50s NYC), along with dewpoints. Some fog may
creep up into NE NJ and NYC late tonight as winds veer SW late
and low level moisture continues to increase, as shown by both
latest GFS LAMP as well as time- lagged NAM/RAP guidance.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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A mostly cloudy start to the morning, with some fog in NE NJ and
NYC, should give way to a mostly sunny afternoon as a warm front
lifts well to the north. High temps will be a good 15-20 degrees
warner than those of today, with highs in the lower/mid 70s,
warmest in NE NJ, NYC and the lower Hudson Valley. Could see
some occasional wind gusts 15-20 mph as well especially in the
metro area and closer to the coast. Unseasonably mild conditions
should continue into Tue night, with lower from the mid 50s
inland to lower 60s in NYC.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Key Points:

* Unseasonable warmth for Wednesday, with the potential for near
  record to record high temperatures. Cooler, but above normal
  temperatures continue through the weekend.

* Rain possible late Sunday into next Monday.

An upper level ridge axis will be east of the area at the start
of Wednesday as a flattening shortwave approaches from the
north and west. An associated surface low will pass well to our
north, but drag a cold front through the area likely sometime
Wednesday afternoon or night. Not much moisture with this front
and went with a dry forecast, though a stray shower is not out
of the question. 850 mb temps around 12-15 C and a deep SW/W
flow ahead of the front should allow for temperatures to peak in
the 70s across the entire area with spotty 80 degree readings
possible in NE NJ and the city. These temperatures would be
record or near record highs for Wed Nov 6. See the climate
section below for the records. With the timing of the front and
potential for some showers, the lowest confidence in the high
temperature forecast is across the Lower Hudson Valley, with the
highest confidence being across Long Island where the front
will move through latest.

High pressure briefly builds in and will remain in control
through early Friday with another dry cold frontal passage
sometime Friday evening or night. This will be followed by high
pressure again through much of the weekend. This pattern will
bring a very gradual cooling trend, but temperatures remain
above normal. Our next chance of some significant rain will come
late next weekend into the beginning of next week as complex
frontal system approaches from the west.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure shifts east of the terminals through the TAF
period. A warm front lifts through tonight.

VFR through most of the TAF period. Some clouds around 030-035
will linger into the evening, but should stay VFR and be more
SCT in nature. Cigs will then gradually thicken and lower after
06z tonight, with MVFR cigs possible for
KEWR/KTEB/KJFK/KLGA/KISP. Guidance has trended up on the chance
for MVFR developing, so have gone with TEMPO between 09Z and
13Z. All terminals see improvement after 13Z, regardless of MVFR
development with clouds scattering out through the day Tuesday.


Winds continue to veer SSE through early this evening around
7-12 kts, winds becoming S around 5-10 kt late evening, then
dropping below 10 kts tonight, then eventually SW around 10 kt
Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon expect SW 8-12 kts. Gusts of
20 kts are possible to develop at or just after 00Z Wednesday,
so have been excluded from the TAFs since they currently start
just outside the TAF period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Brief periods of MVFR can not be completely ruled out this
evening, but expecting any low clouds to hover around 035 and
be more SCT in nature.

MVFR possible tonight, with TEMPOs currently for KLGA/KEWR/KTEB.

Amendments possible for changing wind directions.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. S-SW winds G20kt possible.

Thursday through Friday Morning: Mainly VFR with slight chance
of showers at KSWF.

Friday Afternoon through Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Increasing SW flow on Tue should lead to SCA cond on the ocean
beginning Tue night, with sustained winds 20 kt and gusts 25-30
kt, and seas kt and seas building to at least 5-6 ft. These
conditions should continune on Wed, with gusts to 25 kt and
seas around 5 ft.

Conditions improve late Wednesday night, then remain below SCA
levels through Friday. There is a chance of 25-kt gusts with
another cold front Fri night, but confidence is not high enough
to include in the forecast just yet.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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SPS issued for all of Southern CT due to an elevated wildfire
risk. This was coordinated with the appropriate state
agencies/partners.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Dry weather will continue through the week. Although not a
drought buster, chances for widespread measurable rain may
increase late this weekend into early next week. No hydrologic
issues expected attm.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
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Fcst high temps on Tue should remain at least a couple degrees
shy of record highs for the date.

Record high temperatures are possible on Wednesday:

Daily records for Wed Nov 6:

Daily record high temperatures:
EWR: 80/1948
BDR: 72/2022
NYC: 75/2022
LGA: 75/2022
JFK: 75/2015
ISP: 74/2022

Daily record high minimum temperatures:
EWR: 66/2022
BDR: 62/2022 *
NYC: 66/2022 *
LGA: 65/2015
JFK: 64/2022
ISP: 65/2022

* And in other years
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BG/JP
FIRE WEATHER...BG
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP
CLIMATE...BG