248
FXUS61 KOKX 051149
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
649 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure southeast of New England will shift
southward today and become nearly stationary off the Mid
Atlantic coast on Wednesday. A weak cold front will pass through
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then continue
moving south later Thursday into Friday as high pressure builds
from the Great Lakes. Another cold front will pass through
Friday night, followed by building high pressure through at
least early Sunday. A complex frontal system will likely affect
the area late Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low clouds persist over parts of the area especially from NYC
north as a warm front lifts well to the north and as warm/moist
advection in its wake overruns sfc and H9-based inversions. Dry
above the H9 inversion and vertical mixing should help erode
these clouds during the morning hours. A mostly sunny and
unseasonably warm afternoon expected as SW flow gusting to 20
mph at times mainly in the NYC metro area and along the coast,
with highs 70-75.
Clouds should return tonight mainly NW of NYC as a mid level
shortwave disturbance rides atop the strong upper ridge in
place along the coast and as sfc high pressure slowly weakens.
Low temps will be well above normal, ranging from the mid 50s
well inland to the lower 60s in/just outside NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Near record warmth expected on Wed as the upper ridge flattens
out in advance of an approaching weak cold front. High temps
should reach 80 in the urban corridor of NE NJ and possibly in
parts of the CT river valley, with mid/upper 70s most elsewhere
and lower 70s along south facing shorelines of Long Island and
SE CT. The weakening front should move through dry late Wed Wed
night into Thu AM, with low temps Wed night from the 50s to
lower 60s. A sunny but still mild day expected for Thu, with
highs mostly 65-70, perhaps a touch warmer in urban NE NJ, and a
NW breeze gusting to 20 mph at times in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:
* Above normal high temperatures through early next week.
* Widespread rain likely some time from the end of the weekend
into early next week as a frontal system moves through.
High pressure starts to build in Thursday night, with zonal flow
aloft. The high weakens late in the day as a shortwave and
associated surface low pass well north of the area. This low
will drag a cold front through sometime Friday evening or
overnight. The front will likely pass through dry, but a few
sprinkles can not be completely ruled out. High pressure builds
in thereafter and will remain in control through at least early
Sunday. This pattern will result in above normal high
temperatures, with highs forecast to be in the 60s.
Confidence is increasing that we will see widespread rainfall
for the first time in over a month sometime either at the end
of the weekend or early next week. An upper level low will lift
out of the southwestern US on Friday and head towards the Great
Lakes along with the associated surface low. While there are
some timing and evolution differences among the guidance, there
is general agreement of at least widespread light rain. The
latest NBM has a 40-50% chance of seeing at least 0.25 inches of
rain across the whole area and a 50-60% chance of 0.10 inches.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure continues to shift east through the TAF period as
a cold front slowly approaches from the west.
VFR for much of today. Brief MVFR possible this AM in low
stratus or fog. MVFR returns tonight, potentially lower for KISP
and KGON. Confidence is low in timing. Most terminals likely
around 08z, a few hours earlier for KISP and KGON. MVFR may
linger Wednesday morning, but VFR expected by the afternoon.
SW winds increase to 10-12 kt today, with gusts around 20 kt. A
few higher gusts are possible. Gusts may ended earlier than
shown in the TAF. SW flow continues overnight and increases
again Wednesday. Gusts on Wednesday will be higher, mainly in
the mid-20kt range. LLWS is expected this evening and overnight
at all terminals with 40 kts around 2 kft. Start and end time
of LLWS may be off a few hours.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Brief MVFR possible this morning with patchy stratus.
Timing of gusts and LLWS may be off by a few hours. Gusts may
end earlier than what is shown in the TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: MVFR may linger in the morning, but VFR by the
afternoon. S-SW winds G20-25kt possible.
Thursday through Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA issued for the ocean waters for tonight into at least
daytime Wed as increasing SW winds gust up to 25-30 kt tonight
into Wed, with seas building to 4-7 ft. The advy runs through
Wed evening E of Moriches Inlet where these hazardous seas will
be last to subside. Can`t rule out a few gusts to 25 kt late
tonight into Wed morning on the far ern Sound and the adjacent
Long Island bays.
There is also potential for 25-kt gusts with a cold frontal
passage Fri night. Confidence is still not high enough to
include this in the forecast just yet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated wildfire risk continues due to lack of rainfall and dry
fuels. SPS issued for southern CT for today.
Min RH should range from 50-60% both today and Wed, with SW
winds gusting to 20 mph at times today and 20-25 mph on Wed.
Thu will be a little drier, with min RH 35-45%, and NW winds
gusting to 20 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Fcst temps today should remain shy of record highs for the date,
though temps at LGA (75 in 2022) may get close. Record high
temperatures are possible at most if not all sites on Wednesday.
Daily record high temperatures for Wed Nov 6:
EWR: 80/1948
BDR: 72/2022
NYC: 75/2022
LGA: 75/2022
JFK: 75/2015
ISP: 74/2022
Daily record high minimum temperatures for Wed Nov 6:
EWR: 66/2022
BDR: 62/2022 *
NYC: 66/2022 *
LGA: 65/2015
JFK: 64/2022
ISP: 65/2022
* And in other years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EST
Wednesday night for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Wednesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BG/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
CLIMATE...