554
FXUS61 KOKX 051819
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
119 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through Wednesday. A weak cold
front will pass through late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Thursday
afternoon into Friday. Another cold front will pass through
Friday night, followed by building high pressure through at
least early Sunday. A complex frontal system will likely affect
the area late Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track. Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm conditions
for the remainder of the afternoon as SW flow gusts to 20 mph
at times mainly in the NYC metro area and along the coast, with
highs 70-75.
Clouds should return tonight mainly NW of NYC as a mid level
shortwave disturbance rides atop the strong upper ridge in
place along the coast and as sfc high pressure slowly weakens.
Low temps will be well above normal, ranging from the mid 50s
well inland to the lower 60s in/just outside NYC.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Near record warmth expected on Wed as the upper ridge flattens
out in advance of an approaching weak cold front. High temps
should reach 80 in the urban corridor of NE NJ and possibly in
parts of the CT river valley, with mid/upper 70s most elsewhere
and lower 70s along south facing shorelines of Long Island and
SE CT. The weakening front should move through dry late Wed Wed
night into Thu AM, with low temps Wed night from the 50s to
lower 60s. A sunny but still mild day expected for Thu, with
highs mostly 65-70, perhaps a touch warmer in urban NE NJ, and a
NW breeze gusting to 20 mph at times in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:
* Above normal high temperatures through early next week.
* Widespread rain likely some time from the end of the weekend
into early next week as a frontal system moves through.
High pressure starts to build in Thursday night, with zonal flow
aloft. The high weakens late in the day as a shortwave and
associated surface low pass well north of the area. This low
will drag a cold front through sometime Friday evening or
overnight. The front will likely pass through dry, but a few
sprinkles can not be completely ruled out. High pressure builds
in thereafter and will remain in control through at least early
Sunday. This pattern will result in above normal high
temperatures, with highs forecast to be in the 60s.
Confidence is increasing that we will see widespread rainfall
for the first time in over a month sometime either at the end
of the weekend or early next week. An upper level low will lift
out of the southwestern US on Friday and head towards the Great
Lakes along with the associated surface low. While there are
some timing and evolution differences among the guidance, there
is general agreement of at least widespread light rain. The
latest NBM has a 40-50% chance of seeing at least 0.25 inches of
rain across the whole area and a 50-60% chance of 0.10 inches.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Offshore high pressure will gradually give way to a cold front
approaching from the mid section of the country.
This will be a mainly VFR forecast. However, there could be a
period MVFR overnight, but confidence is low. Some of the HiRes
guidance is showing development of stratus to the south this
afternoon, which may glance KISP and KGON with IFR cigs from
00Z-04Z.
Winds will be SW 10-15 kt this afternoon, with gusts around 20
kt. SW flow continues overnight and increases again Wednesday.
Gusts on Wednesday will be higher, mainly in the 20-25kt range.
SW LLWS is expected overnight at all terminals with around 40
kts at 1500-2000 ft. Start and end time of LLWS may be off a
few hours.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of gusts ending this evening and the onset of LLWS
tonight may be off by 1-2 hours.
Low chance of MVFR 06-12Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Afternoon: VFR. SW winds G20-25kt, ending in the
evening.
Thursday through Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: VFR to start, then a chance of MVFR or lower in rain,
mainly at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA issued for the ocean waters for tonight into at least
daytime Wed as increasing SW winds gust up to 25-30 kt tonight
into Wed, with seas building to 4-7 ft. The advy runs through
Wed evening E of Moriches Inlet where these hazardous seas will
be last to subside. Can`t rule out a few gusts to 25 kt late
tonight into Wed morning on the far ern Sound and the adjacent
Long Island bays.
There is also potential for 25-kt gusts with a cold frontal
passage Fri night. Confidence is still not high enough to
include this in the forecast just yet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Elevated wildfire risk continues due to lack of rainfall and dry
fuels. SPS issued for southern CT for remainder of the day.
Min RH should range from 50-60% both today and Wed, with SW
winds gusting to 20 mph at times today and 20-25 mph on Wed.
Thu will be a little drier, with min RH 35-45%, and NW winds
gusting to 20 mph.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Fcst temps today should remain shy of record highs for the date,
though temps at LGA (75 in 2022) may get close. Record high
temperatures are possible at most if not all sites on Wednesday.
Daily record high temperatures for Wed Nov 6:
EWR: 80/1948
BDR: 72/2022
NYC: 75/2022
LGA: 75/2022
JFK: 75/2015
ISP: 74/2022
Daily record high minimum temperatures for Wed Nov 6:
EWR: 66/2022
BDR: 62/2022*
NYC: 66/2022*
LGA: 65/2015
JFK: 64/2022
ISP: 65/2022
* And in other years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EST
Wednesday night for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Wednesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
CLIMATE...