722
FXUS61 KOKX 060001
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
701 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Western Atlantic will be in control
through Wednesday. A weak cold front passes through late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure builds in
from the Great Lakes Thursday afternoon into Friday. Another
cold front will pass through Friday night, followed by building
high pressure through Saturday. A complex frontal system will
affect the area late Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed for this
update.
Warm conditions are expected tonight for early November as
strong ridging resides over the Western Atlantic. An area of
low clouds/stratus off the Delmarva may push NE tonight as the
boundary layer cools. Most of the guidance has this skirting
eastern Long Island and potentially far southeast Connecticut
before midnight. The low level jet will be strengthening so the
expectation is that the clouds will diminish in coverage due to
stronger turbulent mixing. The SW flow/mixing should also
prevent these clouds from becoming widespread and should also
prevent any fog development. Shortwave energy looks to ride atop
the ridge offshore late tonight, which likely brings and
increase in mid to upper level clouds, mainly NW of NYC.
Temperatures will be well above normal in the upper 50s to low
60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper ridge largely remains just to our south on Wednesday
with deep troughing over the western US. The ridge should
weaken Wednesday night allowing a cold front to pass across the
area into early Thursday. The associated northern stream trough
then passes over New England Thursday afternoon and evening.
Record warmth is forecast on Wednesday. There may be some mid
to upper level clouds to start the day, but a partly cloudy day
is expected. SW flow around the ridging will give temperatures
another boost compared to readings observed on Tuesday. Model
guidance typically runs too cool given the air mass is
unseasonably warm and well into fall. The spread in the NBM is
small and have sided closer to the 90th percentile, especially
away from the immediate coast. Highs should be able to reach 80
degrees across urban NE NJ with upper 70s to around 80 over the
NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley. The SSW component to the
winds further east should hold temperatures in the low to mid
70s. All six of our first order climate sites are predicted to
set new record highs for November 6th. Please see the climate
section below for the current high temperature records for this
date.
The cold front will move through from NW to SE Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. It will still remain mild with partly to
mostly cloudy skies. No measurable rain is expected as there is
little to no moisture available. The front should be south of
Long Island around or shortly after day break Thursday. The air
mass does not significantly cool behind the front and another
unseasonably warm day is anticipated on Thursday. Dew points
should fall into the 40s for much of the area under modest NW
flow. The NW, downsloping flow will likely help push
temperatures into the lower 70s across the southern half of the
area and upper 60s northern half. No records are expected to be
broken on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:
* Cooler, but still above normal temperatures continue Friday
through the weekend.
* Widespread light rain likely late Sunday into early next week
as a frontal system moves through.
High pressure starts to build in Thursday night after the passage
of a cold front, with zonal flow aloft. The front will likely
pass through dry, but a few sprinkles can not be completely
ruled out. High pressure builds in thereafter and will remain in
control through at least early Sunday. This pattern will result
in cooler, but still above normal high temperatures for this
time of year, with highs forecast to be in the 60s. Saturday
will be closest to average.
Confidence is increasing that we will see widespread light
rainfall for the first time in over a month late Sunday into
Monday. An upper level low will lift out of the southwestern US
on Friday and head towards the Great Lakes along with the
associated surface low. This will drag a cold front through late
Monday into Monday night. While there are some timing and
evolution differences among the guidance, there is general
agreement of at least widespread light rain.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For tonight into Wednesday, high pressure will continue to move
offshore with a weakening cold front eventually approaching the
region.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period but
there will be some periods of MVFR or lower tonight into
Wednesday morning, mainly east of NYC terminals. This will be
mainly due to stratus.
Winds will be SW through the TAF period, generally 5-10 kt
tonight into Wednesday morning with winds increasing to 10-15 kt
range late Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon with
gusts near 20-25 kt as well. Winds diminish back to 5-10 kt
Wednesday evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of gusts, low level wind shear, and MVFR could be off by
1-3 hours compared to forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR.
Thursday: VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt in afternoon.
Friday: VFR. W winds G15-20 kt in afternoon.
Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR for the morning, then a chance of MVFR or
lower in rain showers for the afternoon, becoming likely at
night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Updated the SCA to include the eastern Long Island Sound east
of the CT River for tonight into early Wednesday afternoon. SW
winds will increase tonight with gusts 25-30 kt on the ocean and
eastern Long Island Sound. Seas will also build to 5-7 ft on
the ocean. The Advisory will run through Wednesday evening E of
Moriches Inlet as seas will be slowest to subside below 5 ft
there. There remains potential for a few gusts to 25 kt along
the adjacent Long Island Bays. Conditions will then be below
SCA levels on Thursday.
Conditions remain below SCA levels Friday. There is a chance of
25 kt gusts with another cold front Fri night, but this may be
brief or occasional and thus confidence is not high enough to
include in the forecast just yet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning has been issued for CT based on collaboration
with CT land managers. While RH will only fall to 50-60 percent, SW
winds will gust 20 to 30 mph along with very dry fine fuels.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible at most if not all sites
on Wednesday.
Daily record high temperatures for Wed Nov 6:
EWR: 80/1948
BDR: 72/2022
NYC: 75/2022
LGA: 75/2022
JFK: 75/2015
ISP: 74/2022
Daily record high minimum temperatures for Wed Nov 6:
EWR: 66/2022
BDR: 62/2022*
NYC: 66/2022*
LGA: 65/2015
JFK: 64/2022
ISP: 65/2022
* And in other years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for
CTZ005>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for
ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Wednesday night for
ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DS
NEAR TERM...JP/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/DS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JP/DS
CLIMATE...