286
FXUS61 KOKX 061729
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1229 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A Bermuda high over the western Atlantic will slowly weaken
today, giving way to a weak cold frontal passage late tonight
into Thursday. Another high will nose in from the west Thursday
night into Friday, then move into the area on Saturday. A
complex frontal system will impact the area late Sunday and into
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For this midday update, temperatures have warmed above the
forecast in some areas, so high temperatures for the day have
been adjusted accordingly. Cloud cover is also slowing its
advance into the area, with much of it still hanging back to the
west, so have slowed the increase of cloud cover across the
area to later this afternoon and evening. The rest of the
forecast remains on track:
Area of bkn-ovc mid level clouds moving across the area attm
should pass to the east by 13Z-14Z at the latest per model fcst
soundings that show the associated mid level inversion weakening
and drying out. Mostly sunny skies should follow before
additional clouds arrive north/west of NYC this afternoon and
tonight ahead of the approaching cold front. The front will be
weakening and drying out as it approaches, but can`t totally
rule out a brief sprinkle or shower making it into Orange County
either side of midday.
Temps today are a blend of GFS/ECMWF MOS for the daytime hrs and
a NAM/GFS MOS blend for tonight, both of which did very well
yesterday. This guidance warms temps to daily record high values
between 75-80 this afternoon, and cools off only into the
lower/mid 60s by midnight, which may also put daily record high
mins for the date in jeopardy. With more clouds expected this
afternoon did not go as warm as the NBM 95th percentile, which
also did well with highs yesterday, and shows more widespread
80+ degree highs could occurring north/west of NYC. That said,
if its fcst high of 83 at Newark were to verify, that would be
the latest such occurrence of temps that warm at Newark in the
calendar year. See the Climate section for further details.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As with the last warm episode, the front will be slow to sink
through on Thu, with a fairly light W-NW flow picking up in the
afternoon and shifting more out of the NW late. So another mild
day is expected, with highs in the lower/mid 70s via combo of
afternoon sunshine and downslope flow.
Thu night/Fri should be somewhat cooler as the high to the west
builds in, with lows ranging from the mid 30s well inland to
near 50 in NYC, and highs on Fri still managing to make it to
65-70.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:
* Cooler, but still above normal temperatures continue this
weekend and into the beginning of next week.
* Widespread light rain likely late Sunday into early next week
as a frontal system moves through.
No significant changes to the long term forecast. The NBM was
closely followed. High pressure builds in Friday night and
into the first half of the weekend. This pattern will result in
cooler, but still above normal high temperatures for this time
of year, with highs forecast to be in the 60s. Saturday will be
closest to average.
Confidence is increasing that we will see widespread light
rainfall for the first time in over a month late Sunday into
Monday. An upper level low will lift out of the southwestern US
on Friday and head towards the Great Lakes along with the
associated surface low. This will drag a cold front through late
Monday into Monday night. While there are some timing and
evolution differences among the guidance, there is general
agreement of at least widespread light rain. High pressure is
then expected to build back into the area through the middle of
the week before another potential frontal system approaches
toward the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will continue to move offshore with a weakening
cold front eventually approaching the region.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Winds will be mostly SW this afternoon 10-15 kt with gusts
20-25 kt. Winds diminish back to 5-10 kt in the evening and
become more westerly and eventually more NW 10-15 kt by
Thursday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday: VFR. Possible NW winds G15-20 kt in afternoon.
Friday: VFR. W winds G15-20 kt in afternoon.
Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR for the morning, then a chance of MVFR or
lower in rain showers for the afternoon, becoming likely at
night.
Monday: MVFR becoming VFR. Chance of light rain in the morning.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
&&
.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters, the nearby bays of
Long Island, and for central/eastern Long Island Sound, as SW
flow gusts to 25-30 kt and ocean seas build as high as 5-6 ft.
The period of stronger winds looks to last longer than
previously fcst, so the advy was extended into this evening for
the Sound E of Orient Point. Ocean seas and winds still appear
on track to subside below 5 ft and 25 kt this evening.
There is a chance of 25-kt gusts with another cold front Fri
night, but this may be brief or occasional and thus confidence
is still not high enough to include in the forecast just yet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warning remains in effect for southern CT per
collaboration with land managers. While RH will only fall to
50-60 percent, the combo of SW winds gusting over 20 mph and
very dry fine fuels could still lead to elevated fire
growth potential.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible at most if not all sites today:
Daily record highs:
EWR: 80/1948
BDR: 72/2022
NYC: 75/2022
LGA: 75/2022
JFK: 75/2015
ISP: 74/2022
Daily record high minimums:
EWR: 66/2022
BDR: 62/2022*
NYC: 66/2022*
LGA: 65/2015
JFK: 64/2022
ISP: 65/2022
* And in other years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-
345.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ332-
340.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/BR
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...IRD
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW
CLIMATE...