504
FXUS61 KOKX 062125
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
425 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front passes early tomorrow morning. High pressure
begins to nose in from the west tomorrow night. A series of weak
cold fronts or troughs will then move across the area on
Friday, followed by high pressure building in from the west
through Saturday night. The highs moves offshore on Sunday with
a frontal system passing through the area Sunday night into
Monday. High pressure then builds in through the middle of next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Clouds increase this evening into early tonight ahead of an
approaching cold front. The cold front is associated with a weak mid-
level shortwave embedded in a long-wave ridge and a surface low that
passes to our north. The cold front is expected to pass tomorrow
morning. Some CAMs have been trying to resolve a few light showers
ahead and along the front`s passage, but model sounding show a dry
pocket of air near the surface to 850mb. Its looking unlikely that
any of that will reach the ground, so have gone with a dry forecast.
Clouds clear following the front with sunny skies returning
tomorrow afternoon.
The breezy weather we have seen today is expected to continue
winding down west to east through the evening and early tonight.
Post-frontal passage, NW winds will start to pick up midday and
remain elevated through the evening with gusts peaking around 20-25
mph.
Overnight lows will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s. Its possible we
could see maximum low temperature records set in some locations if
temperatures don`t drop low enough by midnight [previous records
listed below in the Climate section of this AFD.] Highs tomorrow
will be slightly cooler in the low/mid-70s. Possibly only limited to
the upper-60s in parts of the Lower Hudson Valley due to the earlier
arrival of the cold front.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Winds will quickly wind down early Thursday night as the cold front
exits and high pressure noses in from the west. Under clear skies
and light NW flow, conditions will be optimal for radiational
cooling Thursday night. Lows will in the low-50s for NYC metro, 40s
for most of the area, and upper/mid-30s in the LI Pine Barrens and
far northern interior locations. Frost development looks possible
for interior areas and the LI Pine Barrens.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Key Points:
*A brief cool down on Saturday with temperatures returning to
above normal levels for Sunday into Monday, then back to normal
for the middle of next week.
*Widespread light rain likely late Sunday into Monday as a
frontal system moves through.
An upper trough digging across eastern Canada and into the
Northeast on Friday will send a series of cold fronts and/or
troughs through the area with cold advection through Saturday
morning. This will briefly return temperatures to normal levels
on Saturday. West winds will be gusty on Friday up to 30 mph.
For winds, stayed above the deterministic National Blend of
Models (NBM) based on latest 12Z operational run and trend in
the short term. It also is typically deficient in W/NW flow
events. This will likely enhance the spread of any wildfires
that may develop. See fire weather section below.
A warmup then ensues Sunday into Monday as a highly amplified
ridge builds across the east with the upper low departing
across the Northeast and a vigorous upper low lifting out of
the Central Plains. In addition, there is chance for a mainly
light rainfall event, but well needed, Sunday night into Monday.
Overrunning rains will push in late Sunday afternoon/early
evening and continue through the overnight, ending from west to
east with a cold frontal passage on Monday. For timing, leaned
toward conditions drying out quicker on Monday versus the
deterministic NBM. This is supported by the 12Z ensemble trends
and the NBM median (50th percentile). Temperatures heading into
Monday will be about 10 degrees above normal. Behind the cold
front Monday, a downward trend will begin with temperatures
close to normal by midweek.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure will continue to move offshore with a weakening
cold front eventually approaching the region.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There is
a low probability of some high end MVFR 3K FT cigs early morning
Thursday but for the most part should stay VFR.
Winds will be mostly SW this evening around 10 kt with some gusts 20-
25 kt. Winds diminish back to 5-10 kt later this evening. By
Thursday morning winds become more westerly and eventually more NW
10-15 kt and then continue into the afternoon with a few higher
gusts.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday: VFR. Possible NW winds G15-20 kt in afternoon.
Friday: VFR. W winds G15-20 kt in afternoon.
Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR for the morning, then a chance of MVFR or
lower in rain showers for the afternoon, becoming likely at
night.
Monday: MVFR becoming VFR. Chance of light rain in the morning.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA advisory remains on ocean waters. The western ocean zone will
drop the SCA at 6pm, while the central and eastern zones will remain
under a SCA until midnight for lingering 5 ft waves and 25 kt wind
gusts.
Waves remain below SCA criteria through Thursday night. However,
following a frontal passage Thursday morning, 25 kt gusts are
possible on ocean waters Thursday afternoon and evening. For
now, the forecast calls for gusts just below 25 kts, so have
opted against issuance of a SCA, at this time.
Westerly winds ramp up on Friday as low pressure passes to the
north across eastern Canada with SCA gusts possible on all
waters through Friday night. Ocean seas east of Moriches Inlet
may linger around 5 ft into Saturday morning. Sub-SCA conditions
are then forecast into Sunday, but a strengthening SW flow
Sunday night into Monday may produce marginal SCA conditions on
the ocean waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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Tomorrow, RH values to 40-50% with winds gusts around 20 mph in
the afternoon. Even though the RH is high, very dry fine fuels
combined with breezy winds could still lead to elevated fire
growth potential.
Conditions worsen on Friday with minimum RH values of 25-35
percent and west winds gusting up to 30 mph. A Red Flag Warning
may be needed.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.CLIMATE...
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Its possible we could see maximum low temperature records set in
some locations if temperatures don`t drop low enough by midnight.
Daily record maximum low temperatures for 11/6:
EWR: 66/2022
BDR: 62/2022*
NYC: 66/2022*
LGA: 65/2015
JFK: 64/2022
ISP: 65/2022
* And in other years-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ332-
340.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BR/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW
CLIMATE...