806
FXUS61 KOKX 080536
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1236 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will the briefly nose in from the west tonight. A cold
front will pass Friday evening. High pressure follows Friday night
then move offshore on Sunday, with a frontal system passing through
Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will then build in through
the middle of next week, followed by another frontal system late in
the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.
Cold air advection will take hold this evening under NW flow and
weak high pressure before the winds back to the west overnight. With
clear skies under light winds, can expect an optimal radiational
cooling night. Overnight lows will be in the low-50s in the NYC
metro, 40s for most of the area, and in the upper/mid-30s for far
northern interior locations and the LI Pine Barrens. Interior
locations and the LI Pine Barrens will see a chance for some frost
late tonight and in the early morning hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A surface low associated with a trough aloft will move from
near the Hudson Bay and dig into the Canadian Maritimes tomorrow
evening and tomorrow night. This will bring another dry cold
front our way tomorrow evening into early tomorrow night
followed by high pressure moving in from the west.
The pressure gradient begins to increase through the day which will
lead to increasing westerly winds that may gust between 25-30 mph
(winds aloft at low levels look to be around 35 kts) and lead to
lower humidity values between 25% and 35% in the afternoon under
mostly sunny skies. Isolated stronger gusts are possible. These
conditions will lead to increased risk for fire danger, with a Red
Flag Warning in place tomorrow for the entire CWA. Winds will reach
their peak following the frontal passage before winding down towards
daybreak on Saturday as the pressure gradient relaxes and high
pressure starts to move in. The risk of fire danger lowers tomorrow
night, despite winds, as relative humidity values rise to 50-70%.
Highs will be milder tomorrow in the upper/mid-60s. Another cool
night is expected tomorrow night with lows in the low-40s to mid-
30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Point:
* Widespread rain expected Sunday night into early Monday.
Surface high pressure with upper level ridging will be in place over
the area on Saturday, which will gradually shift offshore into
Sunday. Dry through the period. Light to calm winds Sunday night and
a mainly clear sky will promote strong radiational cooling with the
surface ridge axis over us. Sunday night`s low temp forecast is
heavily based on bias-corrected MOS, as NBM is typically too warm in
these setups. Frost advisories may eventually be needed in areas
where the growing season has not ended yet.
Low pressure moving across the Great Lakes runs into deep-layered
ridging as it heads toward northern New England. Still enough
moisture and lift along its attendant warm and cold fronts for rain
mainly during Sunday night. Looking at mostly likely a quarter to
half inch of rainfall with this event.
After a lingering chance of rain early Monday, drying conditions
through the mid-week period as high pressure builds back into the
region from the north and west. The next chance of rain then occurs
Wednesday night through Thursday night with the potential of another
frontal system. Global models disagree on the details of the system,
so PoPs have been capped at 40 percent.
High temperatures through the period will be around or slightly
above normal for the most part, with Monday featuring highs around
10 degrees above normal in the mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds to the west of the area through Friday night. A
dry cold front, from the north, passes through the region Friday
afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
N to NW winds diminish overnight to near 5kts or less with wind
direction variable for most terminals. W winds increase to
around 15 kt on Friday, with gusts G25-30 kt. Gusts weaken, but
continue into Friday night.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Start time of gusts could be 1-2 hours off from TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Night: VFR. W winds around 15 kt, G25-30 kt, becoming NW 10-
15 kt, G20-25 kt at night, diminishing towards daybreak Saturday.
Saturday: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt, G15-20 kt.
Sunday: VFR into the afternoon, then becoming MVFR with a chance of
rain late. MVFR or lower in rain at night.
Monday: MVFR with rain early, eventually becoming VFR. Lowering
chance of rain during the morning, ending in the afternoon.
Tuesday: VFR, NW G15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all waters starting at
10am Friday through Friday night. West winds increase ahead of a
cold front and shifts northwest at night. Peak gusts are expected to
be around 25 kts on most waters and peaking near 30 kts on ocean
waters. Ocean waters will also see 5-6 foot waves Friday afternoon
into Friday night.
Advisory conditions continue into Saturday on the ocean, falling
below thresholds by Saturday night. Winds then pick up again Sunday
night into Monday from the SW with the approach of a cold front. A
developing low level jet should help bring 25 kt or greater gusts at
least on the ocean waters, and possibly on some of the other waters
as well starting Sunday night. Regardless, SCA conds will be likely
on the ocean as seas probably build 5-7 feet. With the pressure
gradient weakening, a return to sub-advisory conditions is
anticipated for Monday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The pressure gradient begins to increase through the day which will
lead to increasing westerly winds that may gust between 25-30 mph
(winds aloft at low levels look to be around 35 kts) and lead to
lower humidity values between 25% and 35% in the afternoon under
mostly sunny skies. These conditions will lead to increased risk for
fire danger, with a Red Flag Warning in place tomorrow for the
entire CWA. Winds will reach their peak following the frontal
passage before winding down towards daybreak on Saturday as the
pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure starts to move in. The
risk of fire danger lowers tomorrow night, despite winds, as
relative humidity values rise to 50-70%.
For Saturday, min RH 20-30% and NW winds gusting 15-20 mph
expected.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through mid next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
evening for NYZ211>213.
NJ...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EST
Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BR
NEAR TERM...JP/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JM/JP
MARINE...JC/BR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/BR